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    Editor’s Comment: The following Articles and Links are for those of you who are serious about hearing from true science. There is a lot of information here so scroll down and click on a link you might be interested in.


    The Week That Was: 2017-09-23 (September 23, 2017)
    Brought to You by SEPP
    The Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

    Quote of the Week.
    “Long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run, we are all dead.” — John Maynard Keynes, the British Economist who earlier predicted that the extreme punitive demands of the Treaty of Versailles, the primary treaty ending World War I, would lead to disaster.

    Number of the Week: 99.998%

    By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

    A Concession? A work published in Nature Geoscience by noted British climate modelers led by Richard Miller has stirred considerable interest. Though some of the authors participate in the UN Intergovernmental Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), they made a concession that their models overestimate global warming. Many of those skeptical about the claim that global warming / climate change is controlled by carbon dioxide considered this to be a major event. Other are not too sure, and consider it may be a tactical ploy.

    The disparity between models and atmospheric observations has been recognized by many critics of the IPCC process. The reports of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) are an example. The greenhouse effect occurs in the atmosphere, yet the atmospheric is not warming as estimated by climate modelers. Largely, the efforts of the critics have been suppressed. The proponents of the IPCC, and its goals, have successfully smothered criticism in the Western press.

    Roy Spence and John Christy co-discovered the method of estimating atmospheric temperatures from data collected and published their seminal work in the early 1990s. Yet, they have had difficulty publishing in Western scientific journals since. Small errors in calculations, such as orbital drift, have been discovered and overblown. These errors are less than the disparity between model forecasts and atmospheric observations, but IPCC proponents, including those controlling Western scientific publications do not publish the work of Spencer and Christy.

    The journal of the Korean Meteorological Society publishes Spencer’s work. The organization is to be thanked for upholding the principles of free scientific inquiry. Spencer’s comments on the new paper are particularly appropriate. He doubts that he and Christy would have been permitted to publish such a paper and states:

    “The realization by the authors that the climate models have produced too much warming since about 2000 has been out there for at least 5 years. It has been no secret, and Christy and I have been lambasted as “deniers” for repeatedly pointing it out.”

    Spencer writes that the climate establishment may be trying to address the growing disparity between models and observations for some time, and suggests:

    “The resulting new paper is part of a grand scheme that Population Bomb author Paul Ehrlich perfected decades ago. I believe the new narrative taking shape is this: ‘yes, we were wrong, but only in the timing of the coming global warming disaster. It is still going to happen… but now we have time to fix it, before it really, really is too late.’”

    Those who have observed complex negotiation strategies would not be surprised by such tactics. The new paper may be a ploy, a throw-away, attempting to quell serious questioning of the greenhouse gas theory exemplified in the IPCC models. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy – NIPCC, Challenging the Orthodoxy, and Problems in the Orthodoxy.

    Other Comments on the Miller, et al. Paper: David Whitehouse of the UK Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF) brings up that the period “record temperatures” of the past three years of surface temperatures appears to be ending. The recent temperatures were driven by a strong El Niño, which is ending. It is foolish to base long-term temperature projections on such short-term weather events. Further the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) may be shifting, leading to a cooler period, at least in Europe. He writes:

    “Nobody has any real idea what global surface temperatures will do in the near future.”

    “In short, assumptions made about important details of climate science that were accepted a decade ago are becoming increasingly frayed. Let us hope that a new era of scientific reality will replace the far-too-simple messages previously proclaimed to the public.”

    Comments by others are not as generous. Believing the unrealistic claims of certainty by the IPCC and its adherents including, the foolish economic projections of Nicholas Stern, the UK Parliament passed Climate Change Act of 2008. This action forced the UK on a path of reducing greenhouse gases in 2050 to 80% below what they were in 1990. Appropriate targets and policies are under the specially created Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change.

    Some citizens and politicians are beginning to realize that they are trapped between meeting these legal standards and vanishing promises that wind and solar can deliver reliable, inexpensive electricity, especially for heating and transportation. Even the headlines in The Times suggest that the Miller article may be a ploy to deflect criticism of the promoters of drastic global warming:

    “We were wrong — worst effects of climate change can be avoided, say experts.”
    “Scientists admit that world is warming more slowly than predicted.”

    Martin Livermore of the UK Scientific Alliance suggests the Miller paper may be a ploy to revive the Paris agreement, which President Trump announced he is abandoning. Livermore begins his analysis by citing the paper’s summary:

    “’Hence, limiting warming to 1.5°C is not yet a geophysical impossibility, but is likely to require delivery on strengthened pledges for 2030 followed by challengingly deep and rapid mitigation. Strengthening near-term emissions reductions would hedge against a high climate response or subsequent reduction rates proving economically, technically or politically unfeasible.’”

    Livermore asserts that the BBC followed the message with the headline Paris climate aim is “still achievable.” He concludes his analysis with:

    “No matter how low the price of wind-generated electricity, no matter how sophisticated electric cars become, no matter how quickly we convert domestic heating to electricity, a secure energy supply given the current state of technology will be very significantly higher [in cost] than at present. It need not be like this if the best minds on both sides of the ideological divide can work together to develop better solutions.”

    The citizens of the US can be thankful the country is not shackled to the 2009 Waxman-Markey cap-and-trade bill, which the Senate did not pass. But, it still has the EPA endangerment finding, for which the justification became weaker. See links under Problems in the Orthodoxy and The Political Games Continue.

    The Russian Model: In his February 2, 2016, written testimony to the U.S. House Committee on Science, Space & Technology, UAH scientist John Christy demonstrates that the general climate models used by the IPCC, and depended upon by other groups, overestimate the warming of the lower troposphere by 2.5 to 3 times. It is in the lower troposphere that the greenhouse gas effect takes place. There is no logical reason to assume that models that cannot track temperatures in the near-term will be successful in the long-term. If the purpose of the effort is to describe a need for government policy in controlling carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas emissions, then the IPCC models are extremely poor for policy purposes.

    The paper by Miller, et al. discussed above suggests a minor correction. A minor correction is insufficient, that a major correction in the IPCC process, the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), and the EPA finding that greenhouse gases endanger human health and welfare is needed. Fortunately, his testimony provides guidance in the type of change that is needed. On page 12 Christy demonstrates that only one model describes what is occurring in the troposphere – the INM-CM4 model by the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

    It is important to note that in personal correspondence, Christy stated that for most models, including the Russian model, his findings are based on one available run. Fred Singer has demonstrated that, for most climate models, one run is not definitive and a minimum of ten runs are needed to estimate the actual trends projected in the models.

    In discussing his views of the Miller paper, Patrick Michaels links to the 2010 paper describing the INM-CM4 model. In “Simulating present-day climate with the INMCM4.0 coupled model of the atmospheric and oceanic general circulations”, authors E. M. Volodin, N. A. Dianski, and A. V. Gusev describe that they modified the INMCM3.0 climate model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), used in preparing the fifth assessment report (AR-5, 2013) of the IPCC.

    Appropriately, the authors recognized the importance of natural climate change stating:

    “Among the most significant manifestations of variations in the Earth’s climate system are phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Arctic Oscillation. These phenomena significantly affect the current states of the atmosphere and the ocean and can change their intensity and recurrence against the background of climate changes.”

    Physicist David Legates sent TWTW subsequent papers published by these authors. The 2012 paper results from simulation of climate changes covering in the late 19th, the 20th, and the early part of the 21st centuries. The abstract of the 2012 paper states:

    “Like the previous INMCM3 version, this model has a low sensitivity of 4.0K to a quadrupling of CO2 concentrations.” [Boldface added.]

    The latest estimate by the IPCC is a sensitivity of 3.0K with a doubling of CO2 concentrations. But, the important point is that there is some excellent work being done to model climate that is not being shackled by preconceived notions of needing to “prove” that CO2 concentrations “control” the earth’s climate and that by eliminating CO2 and greenhouse gas emissions, man can eliminate climate change. The IPCC has access to this work and largely ignores it. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

    Offshore Wind vs. Nuclear: As discussed in last week’s TWTW, an auction in the UK of commitments to provide electricity from offshore wind produced a spate of articles on how cheap wind power is becoming. As usual, those promoting wind and solar, including the Guardian newspaper gloss over details such as what happens when weather is not perfect for their devices. Writing in Energy Matters, Roger Andrews did a brief analysis on the claim that offshore wind power in the UK is less costly than nuclear, without getting into the bad deal the UK government did for the Hinkley nuclear plant.

    Using January, a good wind month, for a basis, Andrews estimated that battery storage would increase the cost of wind by about 10 times. He writes:

    “What it does tell us is that adding even a comparatively small amount of battery storage to a wind (or solar) project could kill it economically, which is probably what motivated the Guardian to make the comment about putting limits on how much “we” have to pay for “reliable baseload supplies”. And in the clean, green, environmentally-conscious, demand-managed, smart-meter-monitored, grid-interconnected, one-hundred-percent renewable world of the future the Guardian envisions we won’t need reliable baseload supplies anyway.”

    Now, if we can only discover a low-cost way to store wind. See links under Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind

    The Hurricane Waltz: Hurricane Maria devastated Puerto Rico, a territory of the US, knocking out grid-based electrical power to all the 3.4 million habitants. However, Puerto Rico, and other Caribbean islands, have experienced similar devastation in the past. Over the past week it was very interesting to watch Joe Bastardi of WeatherBELL Analytics explain how Hurricane Jose was guiding Hurricane Maria from moving west and north, possibly making landfall on the eastern seaboard. The multitude of factors involved in determining the intensity and track of hurricanes make any claims of great predictability absurd.

    In addressing some of the claims that Puerto Rico is an example how global warming has made this season worse (as compared to last season which was claimed the “hottest year ever”), Paul Homewood referenced the graph of Tropical Cyclone Tracks from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. The maze of tracks on the graph is very interesting. The data are from 1949 in the Pacific and from 1851 in the Atlantic.

    The graft shows that tropical cyclones have gone well up the Davis Strait, between Greenland and Baffin Island in northern Canada. One the east side of Greenland, tropical cyclones have passed over Iceland and gone into the Greenland Sea, well above the Arctic Circle. One can imagine how the Climate Chorus would react if a tropical cyclone would go into the Greenland Sea today! See links Changing Weather and Changing Weather – Commentary.

    Sea Level Rise: Geophysicist Dennis Hadke compared the claim of drastic sea level rise with what is actually occurring in ten coastal cities with long and reliable records of rise (from tidal gages). He calculates linear fits, regression lines, for each of the ten cities. Not, surprisingly for TWTW readers have finds:

    “There has been no dramatic and consistent sea-level rise in the past century, and projections show no dramatic rise is likely to occur in the coming century.

    “There is no correlation between CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and sea-level rise.”

    The work of Hadke concurs with retired NASA meteorologist Thomas Wysmuller discussed in the January 28 TWTW. Wysmuller explored the correlation between CO2 and sea level rise and found no measurable linkage between Sea Level and CO2. As Wysmuller stated:

    “For the past 2,000 years, Sea Level rise was unchangingly linear, increasing between 1 & 1.5 mm/yr. The maximum rise is about 6 inches per century. This has continued for the past 135 years, even though CO2 concentrations have increased by 38%.”

    Of particular interest for TWTW was Hadke’s estimates for St Petersburg, FL. Sea level rise in the Tampa Bay region was covered in the January 21 and the January 28 TWTWs. In August 2015, the Tampa Bay Climate Science Advisory Panel (CSAP) reported that:

    “Based upon a thorough assessment of scientific data and literature on SLR, the CSAP concludes that the Tampa Bay region may experience SLR somewhere between 6 inches to 2.5 feet in 2050 and between 1 to 7 feet in 2100.”

    The 1-foot rise is from extrapolation of readings from local tidal gages. The 7-foot rise is from NOAA high estimates from IPCC and USGCRP reports.

    Using a record dating back to 1947, Hadke finds “projected sea-level rise is only 10.7 inches over the next 100 years.” [The records for the Tampa Bay region are longer than for St. Petersburg alone.]

    The reports of the IPCC, USGCRP, and, recently, NOAA cannot be relied upon as “the best science available.” See links under Changing Seas.

    Number of the Week: 99.998%. Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has informed the Commonwealth Government that: “AEMO, like every system operator in the world, targets a defined market reliability standard (NEM: 99.998%) and cannot promise or deliver 100% supply reliability”

    To accomplish this goal, the AEMO needs a large increase in a reserve of reliable, dispatchable, electricity. Some politicians seem to willfully ignore the need for reliable electricity, and promote wind and solar. As physicist Howard Hayden has commented:

    “Power from wind varies dramatically with wind speed, as anybody can tell by merely looking at the power curves from any turbine manufacturer on the planet. If the wind speed increases from 10 mph to 20 mph, the power increases by a cool factor of eight. If the wind speed drops from 20 mph to 10 mph, the power it produces drops by 87.5%. Such variations are at odds with the necessity of keeping the grid voltage constant within a few percent, and the frequency constant within 0.03%. In the electricity business, stability is the key ingredient”

    Not experienced in physical issues, some politicians might readily endorse schemes where the instability is hidden; their failure to perceive the fatal limitation of wind power is one such example.


    Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

    Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
    Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2013…

    Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
    Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2014…

    Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
    The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
    By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, NIPCC, Nov 23, 2015
    Download with no charge…

    Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
    S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008…

    Challenging the Orthodoxy

    Cracks in the Empire’s Armor Appear
    By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Sep 20, 2017…

    Testimony to U.S. House Committee on Science, Space & Technology
    By John R. Christy, UAH, Feb 2, 2017…

    Simulating present-day climate with the INMCM4.0 coupled model of the atmospheric and oceanic general circulations
    By E. M. Volodin N. A. Dianskii and A. V. Gusev, Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Sep 2, 2010…
    “It is shown that the new model adequately reproduces the most significant features of the observed atmospheric and oceanic climate.”

    Simulation and Prediction of Climate Changes in the 19th to 21st Centuries with the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Model of the Earth’s Climate System
    By E. M. Volodin N. A. Dianskii and A. V. Gusev, Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Sep 24, 2012.

    The 11-Year Major Hurricane Drought: Much More Unusual than Two Cat 4 Strikes
    By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Sep 21, 2017…
    “Maybe global warming causes fewer landfalling major hurricanes.”

    Reminder: How the IPCC and Climate Alarmists Hid the Good News on Global Warming
    By Staff Writers, GWPF, Sep 18, 2017…
    Short report: Oversensitive: How the IPCC Hid the Good News on Global Warming
    By Nicholas Lewis and Marcel Crok, GWPF, 2014…
    Long version: A Sensitive Matter: How the IPCC Buried Evidence Showing Good News about Global Warming
    By Nicholas Lewis and Marcel Crok, GWPF, 2014…

    Are doomsday scenarios best seen as failed predictions or political detonators? The case of the ‘Theory of Himalayan Environmental Degradation’
    By Tor H Aase, Geographical Journal of Nepal, Vol. 10: 1-14, 2017 [H/t GWPF]…

    Defending the Orthodoxy

    A climate science milestone: a successful 10-year forecast!
    By Larry Kummer. From the Fabius Maximus website, WUWT, Sep 22, 2017…
    [SEPP Comment: Missing the key issue – cause. If the cause is CO2, warming, it should be more observable in the atmosphere than in the oceans. Uses NASA-GISS data.]

    Questioning the Orthodoxy

    Staircase Warming: New Paper Finds Decadal Climate Shifts, Lack of Linear Warming
    By Staff Writers, GWPF, Sep 16, 2017…
    Link to paper: A staircase signal in the warming of the mid-20th century
    By Belolıpetsky P.V., Bartsev S, Saltykov M.Y, And Reıd P.C., 15th International Conference on Environmental Science and Technology, Sep 2, 2017…

    A climate of growing skepticism
    By John Stossel, Tribune Review, Sep 15, 2017 [H/t GWPF]…

    After Paris!

    Kerry to Trump: Paris agreement not some quick ‘real estate deal’
    By Devin Henry, The Hill, Sep 20, 2017…
    [SEPP Comment: Were the last-second changes to avoid the appearance of a treaty that would need Senate approval transparently deliberated or smoke and mirrors?]

    Statement by President Trump on the Paris Climate Accord
    Press Release, The White House, June 1, 2017…
    [SEPP Comment: To reporters: if in doubt, read for yourself.]

    Change in US Administrations

    Administration officials meet to develop climate strategy
    By Andrew Restuccia and Emily Holden, Political, Sep 21,2 017…
    [SEPP Comment: Is the report more hopeful than actual?]

    Red team-blue team exercise will expose the junk science that filled Obama’s EPA
    By Roger Bezdek and Joseph Bast, The Hill, Sep 21, 2017…

    EPA evaluating ‘red teams’ to challenge climate science despite hurricanes
    By John Siciliano, Washington Examiner, Sep 15, 2017…

    EPA asked Heartland for experts who question climate science
    Scott Waldman, E&E News, Sep 21, 2017…

    Lisa Jackson, aka Richard Windsor, Criticizes Trump EPA’s Transparency
    Jackson used alias and private email to conduct official business at EPA
    By: Elizabeth Harrington, Washington Free Beacon, Sep 19, 2017 [H/t Timothy Wise]…
    “EPA has been run by Democrats, and by Republicans, but it’s never in its history—and it’s 40 plus years old—been run by someone who seems to be determined to do the one thing that could destroy its credibility, which is make it non-transparent.”
    [SEPP Comment: Is the science supporting the endangerment finding under Ms. Jackson transparent? Or PM-2.5? Or, the evidence showing DDT causes cancer.]

    Social Benefits of Carbon

    Hooray for Carbon Dioxide! It’s Helping to Feed the World’s Hungry
    By H. Sterling Burnett, American Thinker, Sep 20, 2017…

    Problems in the Orthodoxy

    Climate Change Will Take Longer, Say Scientists
    By David Whitehead, GWPF, Sep 19, 2017…
    Link to paper: Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C
    By Richard Millar, et al. Nature Geoscience, Sep 18, 2017…
    [SEPP Comment: Trump did not destroy the world – yet!]

    Working together
    By Martin Livermore, The Scientific Alliance, Sep 22, 2017…
    To quote from the paper’s summary: “Hence, limiting warming to 1.5°C is not yet a geophysical impossibility, but is likely to require delivery on strengthened pledges for 2030 followed by challengingly deep and rapid mitigation. Strengthening near-term emissions reductions would hedge against a high climate response or subsequent reduction rates proving economically, technically or politically unfeasible.” This straightforward message is taken up by the BBC under the headline Paris climate aim is ‘still achievable’.

    We Were Wrong, Climate Scientists Concede
    By Ben Webster, The Times, Via GWPF, Sep 18, 2017…

    Changes in the Climate Policy Winds
    By Patrick Michaels, CATO, Sep 20, 2017…

    Climate Models Run Too Hot: Settled Science Again
    A Nature Geoscience study finds that humanity has more time to avert dangerous man-made warming.
    By Ronald Bailey, Reason, Sep 21, 2017…

    How scientists got their global warming sums wrong — and created a £1TRILLION-a-year green industry that bullied experts who dared to question the figures
    The scientists who produce those doomsday reports for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change finally come clean. The planet has stubbornly refused to heat up to predicted levels
    By James Delingpole, The Sun, Sep 20, 2017…

    Scientists Go After The Media For Highlighting A Study Showing IPCC Climate Models Were Wrong
    By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Sep 20, 2017…

    Climate change not as threatening to planet as previously thought, new research suggests
    By Henry Bodkin, Telegraph, UK, Sep 16, 2017 [H/t WUWT]…

    Latest, belated admission the models were “too hot” is all PR and politics, nothing to do with science
    By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 21, 2017…
    Spot the political PR paper pretending to be science: the global carbon budget just got a whopping — four – times — bigger, but instructions on how to follow the carbon religion are 100% identical.

    Seeking a Common Ground

    Pielke on Climate #5
    Climate Change as Symbolic politics in the United States,
    By Roger Pielke Jr., The Climate Fix, Sep 18, 2017…

    Reasons For Optimism About Climate Hysteria
    By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Sep 22, 2017…

    Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science

    The Recent Decline in Drought Over the Southeast USA
    Mitra, S. and Srivastava, P. 2017. Spatiotemporal variability of meteorological droughts in southeastern USA. Natural Hazards 86: 1007-1038. Sep 22, 2017…
    “…1) droughts showed ‘high spatial and temporal variability, ‘ (2) droughts were more severe and frequent during the early (1901-1935) and mid (1936-1970) of the twentieth century [compared to the latter 1971-2005 period], ‘ (3) ‘trend analysis confirms that the study domain has become wetter over the last 105 years ‘ and that (4) such ‘wetting trends were more prominent in the agricultural season. ‘”

    The Non-Impacts of Ocean Acidification on the Early Life Stages of Northern Rock Sole
    Hurst, T.P., Laurel, B.J., Hanneman, E., Haines, S.A. and Ottmar, M.L.. 2017. Elevated CO2 does not exacerbate nutritional stress in larvae of a Pacific flatfish. Fisheries Oceanography 26: 336-349. Sep 11, 2017…

    The Impacts of Rising Temperature and Atmospheric CO2 Concentration on a Forest Floor Cyanobacterium
    Lindo, Z. and Griffith, D.A. 2017. Elevated atmospheric CO2 and warming stimulates growth and nitrogen fixation in a common forest floor cyanobacterium under axenic conditions. Forests 8: 73, doi:10.3390/f8030073. Sep 20, 2017…

    The Impact of Elevated CO2 on a Widespread Ectomycorrhizal Fungi
    McCormack, M.L., Fernandez, C.W., Brooks, H. and Pritchard, S.G. 2017. Production dynamics of Cenococcum geophilum ectomycorrhizas in response to long-term elevated CO2 and N fertilization. Fungal Ecology 26: 11-19. Sep 18, 2017…
    “In light of the above findings, it would appear that, given the near-global distribution of this EM fungi and its importance in stimulating ecosystem productivity, the positive impact of elevated CO2 on C. geophilum production (~50% increase for a 200 ppm rise) represents a welcomed benefit for the future of Earth’s forests.”

    Measurement Issues — Surface

    Too late: Bureau of Met buys time with another “major revision” of data that was already “best quality” five years ago
    By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 17, 2017…

    Changing Weather

    Puerto Rico’s Hurricane History
    By Paul Homewood, No a Lot of People Know That, Sep 22, 2017
    Additional graphs: Tropical Cyclone Climatology
    By Staff, NOAA National Hurricane Center, Accessed Sep 22, 2017…

    Trends In Atlantic Hurricanes
    By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 20, 2017

    GWPF TV: Climate Hysteria Vs Hurricane Resilience
    By Staff, GWPF, Sep 9, 2017…
    [SEPP Comment: The clip of an alarmist using the term “climate breakdown” is rich.]

    Analysis By German Scientists Concerning Hurricane Causes: More Propaganda Than Science
    By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 16, 2017…

    La Nina and This Winter’s Weather
    By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Sep 16, 2017…
    “I am always nervous about predicting the character of the upcoming winter’s weather for a number of reasons. Seasonal forecasting skill is not good, with our long-range numerical models having very little skill past three weeks. Furthermore, our main seasonal forecasting tool with any skill, the relationship between El Nino/La Nina and local weather, only explains some of the interannual (between years) variation….”

    Changing Weather – Commentary

    Hurricanes Happen
    Protection against cyclones is necessary whether climate changes or not
    By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, Sep 19, 2017…

    Climate Alarmists Exploiting Hurricanes Are Misguided
    By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Sep 18, 2017…

    Climate Hysteria Hits ‘Peak Stupid’ in Hurricane Season
    By Chris Mitchel, The Australian, Via GWPF, Sep 18, 2017…

    Jose And Maria Frustrate Global Warming Ambulance Chasers, Media And Warmunistas
    By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 20, 2017…

    Changing Climate

    Ancient tree reveals cause of spike in Arctic temperature
    Press Release, Keele University, Sep 12, 2017 [H/t GWPF]…
    Link to paper: Rapid global ocean-atmosphere response to Southern Ocean freshening during the last glacial
    By Chris S.M. Turney, et al, Nature Communications, Sep 12, 2017…
    [SEPP Comment: Questionable!]

    Advert in The Australian describes what real climate change looks like [Advertisement]
    By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 22, 2017…
    [SEPP Comment: Advertisement by “the Climate Study Group.”]

    Changing Seas

    Data versus Hype: How Ten Cities Show Sea-level Rise Is a False Crisis
    By Dennis Hedke, NIPCC Policy Brief, Sep 2017…

    Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

    Arctic sea-ice extent ends up not even close to setting a new low record
    By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 19, 2017…

    Breaking: 2016 W. Hudson Bay polar bear survey shows the population is still stable
    By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Sep 19, 2017…

    Astrology and Climate Science
    By Tony Heller, Real Climate Science, Sep 22, 2017…

    Lowering Standards

    Nature, German Politics and Science
    By Euan Mearns, Energy Matters, Sep 18, 2017…
    Policy driven research and Greenthinking match like a hand in a glove. For example, the 2008 Climate Change Act demands that the UK’s energy system follows a particular set of paths whilst avoiding others – the answer known in advance. Sustainability university departments sprang up all over the UK to receive funds from the UK and EU governments to provide the research that backs the policy to the exclusion of alternative paths. This is not science but political-academic dictatorship.
    [SEPP Comment: Politics influencing Nature.]

    Harvard report details the threats faced by New England forests
    By Brooks Hays, Washington (UPI), Sep 19, 2017…
    [SEPP Comment: No link to report. Is the loss of farmland and pasture land to second growth forests as alarming?]

    Justin Gillis Strikes One Last Time [NYT]
    Guest Opinion by Kip Hansen, WUWT, Sep 18, 2017…

    MP welcomes ‘swift’ BBC rebuke of presenter over climate sceptic tweet
    Adam Rutherford may have compromised BBC’s impartiality by criticising Labour MP Graham Stringer, a climate change sceptic, standards team says
    By Graham Ruddick, Sep 18, 2017 [H/t GWPF]…

    Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?

    Sea Ice Extent Sinks to Record Lows at Both Poles
    By Staff Writers, NASA, Mar 22, 2017 [H/t William Readdy]…
    These line graphs plot monthly deviations and overall trends in polar sea ice from 1979 to 2017 as measured by satellites. The top line shows the Arctic; the middle shows Antarctica; and the third shows the global, combined total. The graphs depict how much the sea ice concentration moved above or below the long-term average. (They do not plot total sea ice concentration.) Arctic and global sea ice totals have moved consistently downward over 38 years. Antarctic trends are more muddled, but they do not offset the great losses in the Arctic.
    Credits: Joshua Stevens/NASA Earth Observatory
    [SEPP Comment: Combining the Arctic and Antarctic deviations creates clever deception.]

    Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.

    5,000 deaths annually from Diesel-gate in Europe
    By Staff Writers, Science Daily, Sep 18, 2017…
    Link to paper: Impact of excess NOx emissions from diesel cars on air quality, public health and eutrophication in Europe
    By J E Jonson, et al. Environmental Research Letters, Sep 18, 2017…
    Link to earlier paper: Impacts and mitigation of excess diesel-related NOx emissions in 11 major vehicle markets
    By Susan C. Anenberg, Nature, May 15, 2017…
    “Adopting and enforcing next-generation standards (more stringent than Euro 6/VI) could nearly eliminate real-world diesel-related NOx emissions in these markets, avoiding approximately 174,000 global PM2.5- and ozone-related premature deaths in 2040.”
    [SEPP Comment: Deaths from PM2.5 are highly speculative.]

    How Real Are Heatwave Death Claims?
    By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know that, Sep 19, 2017
    [SEPP Comment: The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) fiddling with numbers?]

    Welcome to Australia where it’s always warmer somewhere!
    By Guess Blogger Bill Johnston, WUWT, Sep 21, 2017…
    Link to article in question: Australia’s record-breaking winter warmth linked to climate change
    By Andrew King, Fellow, University of Melbourne, The Conversation, Sep 1, 2017…

    Questioning European Green

    The Poor Are carrying the Cost of Today’s Climate Policies
    Climate policies are doing more harm than good, a moral issue
    By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, Sep 19, 2017…

    Cut green taxes now! Experts call for cost of energy bills to fall after scientists admit overstating global warming
    Around 10 per cent of a family’s energy bill is used to subsidise green energy
    Critics say this should be reduced because it is based on outdated information
    A scientific report has said global warming was less drastic than first feared
    By Colin Fernandez, Daily Mail, Sep 19, 2017…

    Utilities Line Up to Profit From ‘Slowest Trainwreck’ in History
    By Jess Shankleman, Bloomberg, Sep 19, 2017 [H/t Toshio Fujita]…
    [SEPP Comment: The trainwreck will occur when consumers and voters demand reliable electricity, and the politically-favored producers have none!]

    Germany Will Miss Another Green Goal
    By Jamie Horgan, The American Interest, Sep 20, 2017
    [SEPP Comment: No English link to German study.]

    Funding Issues

    Follow The Money
    By Duane Thresher, Real Climatologists, Sep 18, 2017…
    “Abstract: The wasted and misspent money at NASA-GISS and all climate research institutions is staggering. So, as they said in Watergate, follow the money.”

    Guardian: Climate Scientists are Not Just In it for the Money
    By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 18, 2017…
    [SEPP Comment: Just the super-computers?]

    The Political Games Continue

    How the Democratic Party Has Incurred Major Electoral Losses by Its Mistaken Support for Climate Alarmism
    By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, Sep 20, 2017…

    Now that’s an inconvenient truth: Report shows the world isn’t as warm as the green doom-mongers warned. So will energy bills come down? Fat chance, says MP Graham Stringer
    Press Release, By MP Graham Stringer, Sep 19, 2017 [H/t GWPF]…

    Litigation Issues

    Two California Cities Sue Oil Majors Over Climate Change
    San Francisco, Oakland want oil firms to fund protective measures against global warming
    By Alejandro Lazo and Bradley Olson, WSJ, Sep 20, 2017…
    Via GWPF: As Two Cities File Lawsuits, U.S. Supreme Court Will Have to Rule About Claims (and Counter-claims) by Climate Scientists…

    Federal Judge Deals Major Blow to #ExxonKnew Crusaders
    By Spencer Walrath, Energy in Depth, Sep 13, 2017…

    Green, industry groups file appeals to save EPA greenhouse gas rule
    By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Sep 22, 2017…
    They’re asking all 10 judges in the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit to rehear the case after a three-judge panel overturned the EPA’s hydrofluorocarbons (HFC) regulation.
    [SEPP Comment: Special interest are appealing under the guise of climate impacts, tiny at most.]

    IPSO adjudication upheld against MoS climate science article [Mail on Sunday (MoS)]
    Editorial, Daily Mail (Sunday), Sep 16, 2017 [H/t Malcom Ross]…
    [SEPP Comment: The evidence supporting the claim that Karl manipulated NOAA data was not irrefutable. Would like to see irrefutable evidence that primary cause of global warming / climate change are carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.]

    Rep. Lamar Smith cites fake news in fight against climate science
    By Bob Ward, The Hill, Sep 23, 2017…
    [SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]

    Subsidies and Mandates Forever

    ExxonMobil’s Tillerson on Wind and Solar Subsidies (an argument to remember)
    By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Sep 21, 2017…
    “If I wanted to kill [tax subsidies], the thing to do is for Exxon Mobil to go and invest heavily in [wind and solar] and then Congress would immediately cancel the tax subsidy. Actually what they would do is they would just cancel it for us…. So we are not going to go into investments that are dependent on a government providing a tax system to make them viable.”– Rex Tillerson, Quoted in Russell Gold, “Exxon Mobil: We Like Renewable Energy Subsidies. Wink, Wink.” Wall Street Journal (March 6, 2009).

    Solar Power Death Wish
    Subsidies aren’t enough. Now solar-panel makers want tariffs.
    Editorial, WSJ, Via GWPF, Sep 17, 2017…

    UK government launches plan to accelerate growth of green finance
    By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know that, Sep 19, 2017

    EPA and other Regulators on the March

    EPA needs to stick to its knitting
    Editorial, Washington Examiner, Sep 18, 2017…
    “Pruitt promises to return the EPA to its proper mission and to limit its activities to those actually prescribed by Congress. Will Pruitt’s EPA address greenhouse gas emissions? Obama justified his Clean Power Plan by asserting the urgency of the issue. But the executive’s belief that an issue is important doesn’t give the executive branch the power to address an issue.”

    Energy Issues – Non-US

    E.On ‘ploy’ to persuade customers to get smart meters with cheaper deals
    By Sam Meadows and Katie Morley, Telegraph, UK, Sep 21, 2017 [H/t Paul Homewood]…

    How Merkel’s Green Energy Policy Has Fueled Demand for Coal
    Germany still gets 40 percent of its electricity from coal-fired plants.
    By Brian Parkin and Weixin Zha, Bloomberg, Sep 21, 2017…

    Canada has too much clean electricity. Anybody want it?
    By David Ferris, E&E News, Sep 21, 2017…

    Energy Issues — Australia

    Advice to the Commonwealth Government on Dispatchable Capability
    By Staff Writers, Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), September 2017…

    Taxpayers give $300m to Saudi billionaire for solar plant that makes 2% of old dying coal plant’s power
    By Jo Nova Her Blog, Sep 19, 2017…
    It will only take 50 plants like this, and $15 billion spare dollars, to replace the Liddell coal station (8,000GWh), now slated for closure in 2022.

    Energy Issues — US

    Another industry group asks agency to regulate carbon
    By Niina Heikkinen, E&E News, Sep 21, 2017…
    “The Coalition for Innovative Climate Solutions, a group that represents electric generating companies and service providers in 19 states, is asking EPA to provide industry with “regulatory certainty” by developing a replacement for the Obama-era regulation on carbon emissions from power plants.”

    Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?

    Well Prepared & More Resilient: How US Refineries Passed Hurricane Test
    By Staff Writers, Financial Times, Via GWPF, Sep 18, 2017…

    Two Weeks After Harvey, Cheniere Runs More [Natural] Gas Than Ever
    By Naureen Malik, Bloomberg, Sep 14, 2017…

    Return of King Coal?

    How Merkel’s Green Energy Policy Has Fueled Demand for Coal
    Germany still gets 40 percent of its electricity from coal-fired plants.
    By Brian Parkin and Weixin Zha, Bloomberg, Sep 21, 2017…

    Nuclear Energy and Fears

    A look at how bad radiation contamination from Fukushima was on the BC coast
    By Simon Druker, News 1130, Sep 16, 2017 [H/t Toshio Fujita]…
    “Highest amount of contamination reached BC [British Columbia] a couple of years ago.”

    Komarov explains nuclear’s role in energy mix
    By Staff Writers, WNN, Sep 18, 2017 [H/t Toshio Fujita]…
    [SEPP Comment: Questioning claims that electricity from renewables are less expensive than nuclear.]

    Regulators vote to move forward on Vogtle nuclear plant
    By Mary Landers, Savannah Morning News, GA, Sep 19, 2017 [H/t Toshio Fujita]…
    “The PSC [Georgia Public Service Commission] expects to make a ruling in the case by February.”

    Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind

    The real strike price of offshore wind
    By Roger Andrews, Energy Matters, Sep 20, 2017…

    Physics and PV Solar
    By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Sep 19, 2017…

    Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles

    Alan Kohler dreams of banning combustion engines in cars in Australia
    By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 20, 2017…

    California Dreaming

    Beast Of Burden – California Refiners Struggle In A State That Wishes They Would Go Away
    By Sandy Fielden, RBN Energy, Sep 17, 2017…

    The Politician Behind California High Speed Rail Now Says It’s ‘Almost a Crime’
    Quentin Kopp convinced voters to approve the project. Now he’s suing to kill it.
    By Justin Monticello, Reason, Sep 20, 2017 [H/t Cooler Heads]…

    “California’s project will be both the slowest bullet train in the world—and the most expensive.”

    Environmental Industry

    Pathogenic lineage of Perkinsea associated with mass mortality of frogs across the United States
    By Marcos Isidoro-Ayza, et al. Nature, Aug 31, 2017…
    [SEPP Comment: Contrary to what many environmental organizations asserted.]

    Other Scientific News

    NASA’s $3.9 bn Cassini spacecraft makes death plunge into Saturn
    By Kerry Sheridan, Tampa FL (SPX), Sep 15, 2017…
    [SEPP Comment: The end of a long-term, exciting mission revealing data on our solar system. Such missions expand knowledge.]

    Satellites measuring Earth’s melting ice sheets to go dark
    By Paul Voosen, Science, Sep 15, 2017 [H/t Toshio Fujita]…


    A glass ceiling?
    By Staff Writers, Climate Change, Sep 18, 2017…

    “Scientists claim they can fight global warming by firing trillions of mirrors into space to deflect the sun’s rays forming a 100,000 square mile “sun shade.”

    “According to Dr Roger Angel, at the University of Arizona, the trillions of mirrors would have to be fired one million miles above the earth using a huge cannon with a barrel of 0.6 miles across.

    “Despite the obvious obstacles – including an estimated $350 trillion (244 trillion pound) price tag for the project – Dr Angel is confident of getting the project off the ground.” [Boldface added]
    The Telegraph, 26 Feb 2009

    1. Climate Change Hype Doesn’t Help
    The bigger issue than global warming is that more people are choosing to live in coastal areas.
    By Ryan Maue, WSJ, Sep 17, 2017…

    The research meteorologist assumes a consensus to which not all meteorologists agree when he writes:

    ”Although a clear scientific consensus has emerged over the past decade that climate change influences hurricanes in the long run, its effect upon any individual storm is unclear. Anyone trying to score political points after a natural disaster should take a deep breath and review the science first.

    “As a meteorologist with access to the best weather-forecast model data available, I watched each hurricane’s landfall with particular interest. Harvey and Irma broke the record 12-year major hurricane landfall drought on the U.S. coastline. Since Wilma in October 2005, 31 major hurricanes had swirled in the North Atlantic but all failed to reach the U.S. with a Category 3 or higher intensity.

    “Even as we worked to divine exactly where the hurricanes would land, a media narrative began to form linking the devastating storms to climate change.”

    Maue gives specific examples then continues:

    “How to put these two hurricanes into proper context? An informative website from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, synthesizes reams of research literature on the links between hurricanes and global warming. Over the next century, climate models generally indicate fewer but stronger storms—between 2% and 11% greater average storm intensity—with substantially increased rain rates. Against the background of slow sea-level rise, explosive coastal population growth will overwhelmingly exacerbate any hurricane’s damages. In the aggregate, the global-warming signal may just now be emerging out of our noisy observational records, and we may not know certainly for several decades. These conclusions are hardly controversial in the climate-science community.

    “My own research, cited in a recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, found that during the past half-century tropical storms and hurricanes have not shown an upward trend in frequency or accumulated energy. Instead they remain naturally variable from year-to-year. The global prevalence of the most intense storms (Category 4 and 5) has not shown a significant upward trend either. Historical observations of extreme cyclones in the 1980s, especially in the Southern Hemisphere, are in sore need of reanalysis.

    “By focusing on whether climate change caused a hurricane, journalists fail to appreciate the complexity of extreme weather events. While most details are still hazy with the best climate modeling tools, the bigger issue than global warming is that more people are choosing to live in coastal areas, where hurricanes certainly will be most destructive.

    “The nascent field of “attribution science” attempts to explain how climate change may affect characteristics of a given hurricane using models in “what if” mode. Such research requires a faithful reproduction of events and predictions of the future constrained by subjective choices within computer models. This research also takes time—which means other scientists must examine the evidence with patience and judiciousness not usually seen on Twitter or cable news.

    “Still, the scientific community already knows plenty about hurricanes and climate change—knowledge it has accumulated over two decades through peer-reviewed research, academic conferences and voluminous national and international assessments. Yet climate scientists all too often speculate during interviews rather than refer to IPCC reports or their cousins from the U.S. National Climate Assessment. Some climate scientists have peddled tenuous theories with no contemporaneous research evidence. Advocacy groups package these talking points for easy consumption by journalists, who eagerly repeat them.

    “The historical record books contain dozens of devastating hurricane landfalls over the past century, any of which, if repeated, would be catastrophic regardless of additional climate-change effects. To prepare for the next hurricane, the U.S. needs the best weather forecasts, evacuation plans and leadership. These plans should be built on sound science, not speculation, overselling or exaggeration. Hurricane science in this political climate already has enough spin.”

    2. Let’s Get Rational About Disaster Risk
    An unfortunate truth is that American influencers have one thing in common: a beach house in Florida.
    By Holman W. Jenkins, Jr., WSJ, Sep 15, 2017…

    After coitizing those who claim that the flooding of Houston was not caused by not having proper zoning, and using the flooding in Florida as an example of why zoning fails in areas with poor drainage, the columnist states:

    “What’s really missing in all such places isn’t zoning regulation but proper risk pricing through insurance. This problem many of us once believed could be solved through sensible reform of the federal flood-insurance program plus the development of a global reinsurance industry, some of it based on promising so-called catastrophe bonds.

    “Now we wonder if it can even be ameliorated. Anyone whose labors take him among America’s distinguished elder statesmen, especially those in the Boston-New York-Washington corridor, discovers that our most influential citizens all have one thing in common: a house in Florida. An unfortunate truth is that the value of their Florida coastal property would plummet if they were made to bear the cost of their life-style choices. A lot of ritzy communities would shrink drastically.

    “Sun and fun would still attract visitors, but property owners and businesses would face a new set of incentives. Either build a lot sturdier and higher up. Or build cheap and disposable, and expect to shoulder the cost of totally rebuilding every decade or two. Faced with skyrocketing insurance rates, entire communities would have to dissolve themselves or tax their residents heavily to invest in damage-mitigation measures.

    “Let’s admit this ain’t going to happen. No disaster was more foretold than Hurricane Katrina or the subsequent storms that have afflicted the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. Yet the urge in Washington to rationalize risk signals proved shallow and short-lived. In a sentence that would get a columnist today accused of blaming-the-victim heartlessness, law professors Omri Ben-Shahar and Kyle Logue, in the Stanford Law Review, last year wrote: “We call weather-related catastrophes ‘natural disasters,’ but the losses due to severe weather are the result of a combination of natural forces and often imprudent, shortsighted human decisions induced . . . by questionable government policies.”

    “After the televised tragedies of 9/11 and Katrina, a Lloyd’s of London insurance executive wondered, ‘If government hands out checks, do people need insurance?’ He might further have asked: With government assuming the risk, why would businesses and homesteaders ever think twice about building in the path of future hurricanes?”

    After discussing the concept of Federal assistance beginning with the great Mississippi flood of 1928, the author suggests:

    “But maybe we could start being honest with ourselves. Let’s see in the budget of the U.S. government a realistic estimate of the now-unrecorded contingent liability that we taxpayers have assumed on behalf of hurricane-prone communities—or, for that matter, the earthquake risks that we hardly ever talk about.

    “At the time of Katrina, Robert Litan of the Brookings Institution and Ed Liddy, then of Allstate , led just such a call. Their proposal was the despair of those of us who knew a competitive, private insurance market would do a superior job of sending proper risk signals. But it increasingly seems better than nothing—nothing being ever-bigger ad hoc federal expenditures to rebuild what natural disasters knock down, without serious examination of the taxpayer equities involved.

    “Just maybe, once we have formalized these estimates and shocked ourselves at the risk we not only expose ourselves to as taxpayers, but the risk to life and limb we expose our fellow citizens to by encouraging them to build in dangerous places, our country might begin to rationalize its risk-taking with respect to predictable natural hazards.”



    The Week That Was: 2017-09-16 (September 16, 2017)
    Brought to You by SEPP


    Quote of the Week.
    “It is very obvious that we are not influenced by ‘facts’ but by our interpretation of the facts.” — Alfred Adler, Austrian medical doctor, psychotherapist, and founder of the school of individual psychology. [H/t William Readdy]

    Number of the Week: ???

    By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

    Preparing for the Next One – Resilience: During this active hurricane season, we are witnessing the importance of resilience – the ability to be flexible in adapting to natural disasters. SEPP Chairman S. Fred Singer has an article emphasizing the importance of preparing for the next Ice Age and suggests approaches.

    Humanity evolved in the tropics during an era of intense climate change; when long, ice ages gripped much of the, now, temperate regions of the earth. Civilization came forth after the last major ice age, which ended about 12,000 years ago, the Pleistocene Epoch. Singer argues for experiments to develop techniques to moderate the next ice age, be it a major or a minor.

    Singer argues for two classes of cooling periods: 1) major ones which are driven by orbital mechanics, the Milankovitch cycles; and 2) minor ones which are far shorter and driven by solar cycles, changing activity of the sun. Numerous minor cooling periods occurred during the current warm period, the Holocene. As seen during the Little Ice Age, with famine, disease, and death, even minor cooling periods can be disastrous for humanity and civilization. Some astrophysicists assert we are entering a period of a quiet sun, indicating a cooling period, akin to the Little Ice Age.

    Singer’s analysis is based on his assertion that ability of carbon dioxide (CO2) to absorb infrared radiation from the earth is reaching saturation. Adding more CO2 to the atmosphere will do little to protect the earth from cooling. Earlier laboratory experiments by the US National Bureau of Standards, now the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), and many other groups bears this out. The absorption features of CO2, and other greenhouse gases, are highly logarithmic, diminishing rapidly with additional units.

    Subsequently, the 1979 Charney Report published by the National Academy of Sciences claimed that the minor influence of CO2 in the atmosphere may be amplified by increased water, resulting in an increase in atmospheric temperatures through the release of latent heat by the condensation of water vapor. The Charney Report contained no data, laboratory or observational, supporting this assertion. As discussed below, subsequent data advanced by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its followers may have significant issues, including the emphasis on surface data that is influenced by many human activities, unrelated to CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions.

    To counter minor cooling periods, Singer suggests experimenting with releasing water vapor in the tropopause, the boundary between the troposphere and stratosphere, at an altitude of about 12 kilometers (40,000 feet). To counter major cooling periods, Singer suggests that once advancing ice is confirmed, releasing black soot onto polar summer ice may help prevent wide-spread glaciation.

    No doubt, Singer’s proposals will be highly controversial, and many individuals will express outrage. However, that is the cost of expressing imaginative ideas in a highly politicized world. See Article # 1 and links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

    Adjusting Temperatures — Lower Troposphere Satellite Temperatures: In his three-part series addressing the question of whether reported temperatures have been adjusted to match models, geologist and statistician Roger Andrews analyzes the publicly available data, not claims in the scientific literature. Similar to Steve McIntyre, who, with Ross McKitrick, exposed the fallacious “hockey-stick” by Mr. Mann, Andrews painstakingly analyzes the data and draws his conclusions based on that analysis.

    In Part 1 of this series he covered the surface-air temperature data and concluded:

    “… that the good match between surface air temperatures and model simulations (in the Northern Hemisphere but less so in the Southern) were a result of homogeneity adjustments that added non-existent warming to the raw records. Whether these adjustments were applied in a deliberate attempt to match observations to AGW theory is, however, questionable. They are more likely a result of the initial and never-questioned assumption that the raw records were cooling-biased by such things as station moves from downtown to airport locations, time-of-observation changes etc. and that they therefore required warming adjustments to make them “correct” (the USHCN adjustments to the US raw records are good example). But there is no doubt in my mind that the existing published surface air temperature series, such as CRUTEM3, GISS, NOAA/NCDC and BEST overstate long term global surface air warming by several tenths of a degree C.” [Boldface added]

    In Part 2 Andrews covered sea surface temperatures and concluded:

    “…that the 0.4C “World War II cooling adjustment” applied to the raw ICOADs [International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set] sea surface temperature records and the insulated/uninsulated bucket bias corrections that preceded it were invalid, and that as a result the published SST series (HadSST3, ERSST etc.) are not meaningful before about 1950. In this case it’s difficult to escape the conclusion that these adjustments were applied in a deliberate attempt to match the measurements to the models. But if so the attempt was not blessed with success. The match between the published series and model simulations is still poor.” [Boldface added]

    Most of the warming shown in sea surface temperature data occurred before 1950.

    In part 3 Andrews covers atmospheric data from satellites. In the introduction Andrews states:

    Except for small gaps over the poles the satellite temperature series are the only truly global temperature series we have; their defect is that they do not begin until 1979. Published series are constructed using raw records from different satellites that require large adjustments to bring them into line, but the good comparison between the most widely-referenced series – the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) lower troposphere (TLT) series – and radiosonde series suggests that these adjustments are valid. The other widely-referenced series – the Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) TLT series was adjusted in 2015 to show over 0.2C more warming since 1979 than UAH. Data reviews do not tell us which series is the more correct, but the circumstances surrounding the RSS adjustments are suspicious. In any event, both series show significantly less warming in the lower troposphere than predicted by climate model simulations – yet another instance of the measurements not matching the models.

    Further, Andrews concludes

    “… that with one exception the raw satellite data are correctly adjusted and that the published TLT series are reliable. The exception is of course the RSS v 4.0 series, which adds over 0.2C of warming to preceding RSS series. There is no proof that this added warming was a result of a deliberate attempt to match the measurements to the models (and if it was it also didn’t succeed – see Figure 7). The timing of the adjustments is nevertheless suspicious, and it’s worth noting that Ben Santer, a champion of the AGW cause, was involved in the adjustment process. But if the attempt was indeed deliberate it wouldn’t have been the first. In April 2006, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program published a study that led off with the following statement:

    “’Previously reported discrepancies between the amount of warming near the surface and higher in the atmosphere have been used to challenge the reliability of climate models and the reality of human-induced global warming. Specifically, surface data showed substantial global-average warming, while early versions of satellite and radiosonde data showed little or no warming above the surface. This significant discrepancy no longer exists because errors in the satellite and radiosonde data have been identified and corrected. New data sets have also been developed that do not show such discrepancies.’”

    “I have no data on what the corrections were, but there can be no doubt that they wouldn’t have been applied if the satellite data hadn’t “challenge(d) the reliability of climate models and the reality of human-induced global warming”.

    “The bottom lines that emerge from all this are:

    “1. The only published temperature time series that are not distorted by adjustments and which can therefore be considered reasonably reliable are the UAH TLT series and the SST series after about 1950. (The various radiosonde series, which go back to 1958, also appear to be generally reliable, and more use could be made of them.)

    “2. Climate models show too much air temperature warming at the surface and in the troposphere. They show probably about the right amount of sea surface warming after 1950 but probably too little before. Overall the models show that greenhouse gases have had considerably less impact on temperatures than AGW theory says they should have had.” [Boldface added.]

    The findings of Andrews correspond with the views expressed in TWTW: 1) UAH atmospheric data are the only reliable true global data; 2) there are questionable adjustments to the surface data; and, 3) current RSS adjustments to atmospheric data are highly questionable. For these reasons, when discussing global measurements of temperature, TWTW relies only on UAH TLT data. As described in the Charney Report, it is in the atmosphere, the lower troposphere, that the greenhouse effect of CO2 occurs and any amplification thereof.

    Let us hope that unlike the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia (CRU), NASA-GISS and NOAA-NCDC, now called National Centers for Environmental Information (NOAA-NCEI) preserved the unadjusted surface data. If not, they have failed the American public in preserving important history. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

    More Ocean Oscillations? As stated in last week’s TWTW, the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a poor term because there is no oscillation in the sense of a rhythmic movement back and forth. The El Niño component warms, and La Niña component cools. But they are not predictable. This week, the Global Warming Policy Foundation published a study by atmospheric physicist Anastasios Tsonis examined ENSO and other complicated changes in the oceans such as the North Atlantic Oscillation [the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO)] and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). These may not be true oscillations, but seem to occur fairly regularly. In the past, Joe D’Aleo of WeatherBELL Analytics has described to these changes.

    To better understand these changes, many taking decades, would be a great benefit in understanding our changing weather and climate. The new study can be a complement to the prior statistical work by Wallace, D’Aleo, and Christy. Unfortunately, much needed work into understanding the natural causes of climate change has been side-tracked into blaming CO2. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Defending the Orthodoxy.

    What Happened to Irma? Hurricane Irma was a serious threat to Florida, and, initially, forecast to travel up the east coast of the state. Later, it crossed the Florida Keys as a category 4 hurricane and was forecast to go up the west coast of the state as a major hurricane (category 3 or above). The winds dissipated, but the storm caused major damage from heavy rain and wind less that category 3. For example, the damage to orange groves may drive up the prices of fruits for months ahead.

    Although the after-action reports are not complete, apparently the strength of the eye of the storm dissipated due to wind shear – an occurrence where the direction or intensity of the winds vary with altitude at or near the eye.

    According to reports, with a few exceptions, government officials and the public responded well to the danger. The electric auto maker Tesla released an electronic upgrade to owners, without cost, which would allow owners to drive farther before charging. This prompted some criticisms, but charging for upgrades at little cost to the manufacturer has been a long tradition in the electronics industry.

    False alarms can fool people into thinking there is little danger when hurricane alarms are given in the future. After Katrina, past false alarms were an excuse given for the Mayor not ordering evacuation of New Orleans. We need a better severe storm forecasting ability. Unfortunately, diverting billions of dollars for forecasting multiple future climates are of little practical value.

    Hurricane Jose has been circulating in the Atlantic Ocean for over a week, with little interest. Now, it appears that Jose may threaten the northeast by late this week. If it happens, we can expect the climate chorus to go into full throat. Of course, they will be unable to explain what drove the 1938 Long Island Express Hurricane, which took a theater out to sea, with patrons; or the 1635 Great Colonial Hurricane that hit the Massachusetts Bay Colony. See links under Seeking a Common Ground, Changing Weather, and Changing Weather — Forecasts

    Energy Follies: Denmark’s DONG Energy won an auction for needing the lowest subsidies from the UK government for providing electricity from wind from a project off the coast of Yorkshire. DONG agreed to provide electricity at a government guaranteed price, below those of competitors. Headlines immediately seized on the low guaranteed price, below that of the guaranteed price for the Hinkley nuclear power plant, which may have been a very bad deal for the UK consumers. None of the reviewed reports covers how electricity will be provided when wind power fails, which it will. Such inconveniences are not covered, although civilization fails to operate with electric power fails.

    Writing in The Australian, economist Judith Sloan questions the huge increases in electricity prices in Australia as government shifted to green energy, despite an abundance of fossil fuels.

    “The most pressing need of the government is to secure the future of dispatchable electricity generation and to do so at reasonable prices. Everything else is a side-show.”
    See links under Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up and Questioning Green Elsewhere.

    Number of the Week:??? One wonders how much rain has fallen on the Atlantic from Hurricane Jose as compared to how much rain fell on Houston from Harvey. Forecasting such storms is necessary to be able to forecast intensity of hurricanes that make landfall, but there seems to be little interest. [H/t Joe Bastardi]


    Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?

    Massive sunspots and huge solar flares mean unexpected space weather for Earth
    By Alexa Halford, Brett Carter, and Julie Currie, The Conversation, Sep 7, 2017…

    Solar storms linked to mass strandings of whales
    By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 6, 2017…
    Link to paper: Solar storms may trigger sperm whale strandings: explanation approaches for multiple strandings in the North Sea in 2016
    By Vanselow, Jacobsen, Hall, and Garthe, International Journal of Astrobiology, Sep 14, 2017…


    Climate McCarthyism Is on the Rise
    By Julie Kelly, National Review, Sep 13, 2017…

    Canada now investigates ‘climate denial’
    By Lorrie Goldstein, Toronto Sun, Sep 13, 2017 [H/t GWPF]…

    Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

    Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
    Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2013…

    Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
    Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2014…

    Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
    The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
    By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, NIPCC, Nov 23, 2015
    Download with no charge…

    Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
    S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008…

    Challenging the Orthodoxy

    Preventing the other climate catastrophe
    Periodic global cooling might be thwarted by geoengineering
    By S. Fred Singer, Washington Times, Sep 12, 2017…

    Adjusting Measurements to Match the Models – Part 3: Lower Troposphere Satellite Temperatures
    By Roger Andrews, Energy Matters, Sep 14, 2017…

    Ocean Cycles, Not Humans, May Be Behind Most Observed Climate Change
    By Staff Writers, GWPF, Sep 15, 2017…
    Link to paper: The Little Boy: El Niño and natural climate change
    By Anastasios Tsonis, GWPF, 2017…

    Bridenstine, Climate Scientists Are Not Noble, Stop Paying Them
    By Duane Thresher, Real Climatologists, Sep 8, 2017…
    “’Dr. Thresher, You have one advantage over me. You are a climate expert and I am not.’ — Genius and global warming skeptic Freeman Dyson.”
    “I instigated a NASA OIG investigation of Gavin Schmidt, current head of NASA GISS anointed by previous head James Hansen, for violation of the Federal Records Act and the Hatch Act.”

    Making Technological Miracles
    By Mark Mills, The New Atlantis, Spring 2017…
    [SEPP Comment: At what point does a push to accomplish a technological goal become a vain waste?]

    Defending the Orthodoxy

    Vulnerable Pacific states demand urgent climate action
    By Staff Writers, Apia, Samoa (AFP), Sept 8, 2017…
    Link to press release: World Bank lays out options for accelerated Pacific Island growth
    By Staff Writers, World Bank, Sep 7, 2017…
    Link to report: Pacific Possible: Long-term Economic Opportunities and Challenges for Pacific Island Countries
    By Staff Writers, World Bank, 2017…

    Neil de Grasse Tyson Destroys Climate Change Deniers’ Favorite Argument In 1 Tweet
    By Ed Mazza, Huff Post, Sep 11, 2017…
    “Anyone who thinks scientists like agreeing with one another has never attended a scientific conference.”
    [SEPP Comment: The remainder is meaningless and cites the 2013 disingenuous survey by Cook et al.]

    Open Call for Author Nominations: IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)
    By Staff Writers, US Global Change Research Program, No Date [H/t Cooler Heads]…

    Taking the Pulse of the Planet
    How fast is Earth warming? Ocean heat content and sea level rise measurements may provide a more reliable answer than atmospheric measurements.
    By Lijing Cheng, Kevin E. Trenberth, et al. EOS, Sep 13, 2017…
    [SEPP Comment: If warming is occurring in the ocean, without atmospheric warming, then the cause is something other than the greenhouse effect.]

    Questioning the Orthodoxy

    Bias and intolerance
    By Martin Livermore, Scientific Alliance, Sep 8, 2017…

    How the CIC Is Working to Prevent EPA from Using Good Science
    By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, Sep 15, 2017…

    Rush to judgement
    By Martin Livermore, The Scientific Alliance, Sep 14, 2017…

    We are more than a match for hurricanes
    By Matt Ridley, The Times, Via GWPF, Sep 11, 2017…
    “The temptation to blame Irma on fossil fuels or Donald Trump, milking natural disasters for political gain, proved irresistible to some. This makes no more sense than blaming the Syrian civil war on climate change, rather than man’s inhumanity to man, which Barack Obama, the Prince of Wales, Bernie Sanders, Friends of the Earth and the World Bank were all tempted into doing.”

    12 New Papers: North Atlantic, Pacific, And Southern Oceans Are Cooling As Glaciers Thicken, Gain Mass
    By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Sep 11, 2017…

    Plastics in Our Drinking Water?
    By Dennis Avery, Townhall, Sep 9, 2017…

    Flashback 2007: Scientists Reveal They ‘No Longer Understand How Ozone Holes Come Into Being’
    By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Sep 14, 2017…
    [SEPP Comment: That which worked in the laboratory did not work in the field. Perhaps, what was “understood” was not correctly understood.]

    Klaus: alarmists have won the climate debate [In Europe]
    By Luboš Motl, The Reference Frame, Sep 10, 2017…

    After Paris!

    State Department Climate Pullback (remembering Tillerson’s 2013 views)
    By Robert Bradley, Master Resource, Sep 14, 2017…
    “Todd Stern, who served in the role for nearly eight years during the Obama administration, was the country’s chief negotiator for the landmark 2015 Paris climate agreement, which the website says ‘is the most ambitious climate accord ever negotiated.’”
    [SEPP Comment: Often, what is called the most ambitious may be the most egotistical.]

    The Hurricane Harvey Hustle
    Guest essay by Paul Driessen, WUWT, Sep 9, 2017…

    Change in US Administrations

    Trump Administration Proposes Repealing Obama Era Fracking Law
    By Kenneth Artz. Heartland, Sep 13, 2017…

    Social Benefits of Carbon

    Study: plants are globally getting more efficient thanks to rising carbon dioxide
    By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 12, 2017…
    Link to paper: Atmospheric evidence for a global secular increase in carbon isotopic discrimination of land photosynthesis
    By Ralph Keeline, et al. PNAS, Sep 11, 2017…

    Seeking a Common Ground

    A Global Warming Red Team Warning: Do Not Strive For Consensus With The Blue Team
    By Dr. Roy Spencer, ICECAP, Sep 14, 2017…

    The Role Of Climate Change In Extreme Weather Events
    By Robert Rapier, Forbes, Sep 10, 2017…

    No Mr Monbiot, capitalism isn’t destroying the planet
    By Tim Worstall, CapX, Sep 14, 2017 [H/t GWPF]…

    Wealthy Countries Resilient in the Face of Extreme Weather
    By H. Sterling Burnett, The Heartland Institute, Sep 15, 2017 [H/t Cooler Heads]…

    Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science

    Cardiovascular Health Impacts of Heatwaves and Cold Spells in Catalonia
    Ponjoan, A., Blanch, J., Alves-Cabratosa, L., Martí-Lluch, Comas-Cufí, M., Parramon, D., Garcia-Gil, M., Ramos, R. and Petersen, I. 2017. Effects of extreme temperatures on cardiovascular emergency hospitalizations in a Mediterranean region: a self-controlled case series study. Environmental Health 16: 32, doi:10.1186/s12940-017-0238-0. Sep 15, 2017…
    “Clearly, given the results of this study, cold weather is the danger to be feared in terms of increasing rates of hospitalization for cardiovascular disease.”

    Smaller Trends and No Acceleration of Mediterranean Sea Levels
    Zerbini, S., Raicich, F., Prati, C.M., Bruni, S., Conte, S.D., Errico, M. and Santi, E. 2017. Sea-level change in the Northern Mediterranean Sea from long-period tide gauge time series. Earth-Science Reviews 167: 72-87. Sep 15, 2017…
    [SEPP Comment: NASA may wish to reexamine its calibration points for the GRACE satellites.]

    Modern Trends in Productivity and Intrinsic Water Use Efficiency Reported From Two European Forests
    Giammarchi, F., Cherubini, P., Pretzsch, H. and Tonon, G. 2017. The increase of atmospheric CO2 affects growth potential and intrinsic water-use efficiency of Norway spruce forests: insights from a multi-stable isotope analysis in tree rings of two Alpine chronosequences. Trees 31: 503-515. Sep 11, 2017…

    Measurement Issues — Surface

    Bureau Management Rewrites the Rules – Again
    By Jenniferer Morahasy, Her Blog, Sep 11, 2017…
    Australian Bureau of Meteorology

    Australian Bureau of Met uses 1 second noise, not like WMO, UK and US standards
    The Australian Bureau of Meteorology may not be meeting WMO, UK, US standards
    By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 13, 2017…
    Link to paper: What are daily maximum and minimum temperatures in observed climatology?
    By Lin and Hubbard, International Journal of Climatology, June 18, 2017…

    Changing Weather

    Beyond “Flood Zones:” Time to Personally Floodproof Homes and Businesses
    By Barry Klein, Master Resource, Sep 13, 2017…
    [SEPP Comment: From a local in the floodproofing business.]

    Beware Greens Exploiting Hurricanes
    Extreme weather is less of a threat than it ever has been.
    By Ben Pile, Spiked, Sep 11, 2017 [H/t GWPF]…
    “But theory easily becomes dogma, and climate pundits have rushed ahead of their science. ‘Harvey is what climate change looks like’, screeched meteorologist Eric Holthaus. ‘It’s a fact: climate change made Hurricane Harvey more deadly’, claimed Michael Mann, a professor of atmospheric science at Pennsylvania State University.’”
    [SEPP Comment: Pile asks the right question; More deadly than what?]

    La Niña May Develop By Fall or Winter, NOAA Says; Here’s What That Could Mean
    By Jonathan Erdman,, Sep 14, 2017…

    As La Nina Looms, Warmists Skid Into Panic Mode…Global Warming Pause Set To Surpass Two Decades!
    By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 15, 2017…

    Atlantic Hurricane Trends and Mortality Updated
    By Euan Mearns, Energy Matters, Sep 12, 2017…
    “My prejudice is that Earth’s climate should be changing all the time and I do find the constancy of Atlantic Hurricane activity surprising. Perhaps Man’s intervention has stopped the climate from changing.”

    Parts of Florida Keys to reopen to residents after Irma
    By Max Greenwood, The Hill, Sep 16, 2017…
    “Residents of the Lower Keys and Key West will be allowed to return home on Sunday at daybreak, the officials said in a statement.”

    Guardian Shocked that Florida Residents STILL Don’t Buy their Climate Hype
    Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 11, 2017…

    Mega-Snow: Mother Nature Buries Another Failed Climate Prediction
    Staff Writers, Via GWPF, Sep 11, 2011…
    [SEPP Comment: Two headlines in UK Mail: “Australia’s ski resorts experience best conditions Ever” Sep 11, 2017; and “Sno joke, climate change is killing Australia’s ski fields:” July 20, 2015.]

    No, Hurricanes Aren’t More Frequent or Severe
    By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Sep 13, 2017…

    Stop the loose talk about hurricanes and global warming
    By Myron Ebell and Roger O’Neill, The Hill, Sep 15, 2017…

    Changing Weather — Forecasts

    The Hurricane Irma Forecast: Triumph or Disappointment?
    By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Sep 13, 2017…

    A $150 Billion Misfire: How Disaster Models Got Irma Wrong
    By Brian Sullivan, Bloomberg, Sep 12, 2017…

    Did Climate Change Cause Hurricane Irma To Fizzle?
    Editorial, IBD, Sep 11, 2017…

    Changing Seas

    Billionaire funds program to expose deep-sea secrets
    By Scott Waldman, E&E, Sep 12, 2017…

    Taking a deep breath in the North Atlantic
    By Staff Writers, Kiel, Germany (SPX) Sep 07, 2017…
    Link to paper: Intense oceanic uptake of oxygen during 2014–2015 winter convection in the Labrador Sea
    By Jannes Koelling, Geophysical Research Letters, Aug 5, 2017…
    [SEPP Comment: Does not state the number of years the previous, lesser uptake covers.]

    Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

    Himalayan glaciers melting for 400 years, finds BSIP study
    By Staff Writers, Times of India, Sep 13, 2017…
    BSIP is Birbal Sahni Institute of Palaeosciences
    [SEPP Comment: What percentage? See link immediately below.]

    87% of Himalayan glaciers stable since 2001: Javadekar
    By Staff Writers, The Times of India, Dec 15, 2015…

    “Net Increase In Greenland Ice Mass…First Time This Century” Amid Northern Hemisphere Cool-Down
    By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 10, 2017…

    Un-Science or Non-Science?

    Carbon dioxide emission-intensity in climate projections: Comparing the observational record to socio-economic scenarios
    By Felix Prelis and Max Roser, Energy, June 22, 2017 [H/t GWPF]…
    From the abstract: The wide spread of projected temperature changes in climate projections does not predominately originate from uncertainty across climate models; instead it is the broad range of different global socio-economic scenarios and the implied energy production that results in high uncertainty about future climate change.
    …we find that the relative discrepancy was driven by unanticipated GDP growth in Asia and Eastern Europe, in particular in Russia and China. The growth of emission intensity over the 2000s highlights the relevance of unforeseen local shifts in projections on a global scale.
    [SEPP Comment: Another smoke-screen protecting the “settled science” for failing to correctly predict temperatures in the near-term.]

    Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?

    The great nutrient collapse
    The atmosphere is literally changing the food we eat, for the worse. And almost nobody is paying attention.
    By Helena Bottemiller Evich, Politico, Sep 13, 2017…

    The Plastic Fantasy That’s Propping Up the Oil Market
    By Julian Lee, Bloomberg, Sep 10, 2017…

    Washington Post Profile on CEI Climate Work Misses Half the Story
    By Kent Lassman and Marlo Lewis, Jr., CEI, Sep 14, 2017 [H/t Cooler Heads]…

    Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.

    UK wind electricity cheaper than nuclear: data
    By Roland Jackson, AFP, Sep 11, 2017…
    [SEPP Comment: Comparison highly skewed. How much does wind energy cost when it does not generate electricity?]

    Wind could make Britain an energy superpower to rival Arabia!
    By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Telegraph, UK, Exposed by Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 15, 2017
    “Industry insiders are not surprised by the strike price of £57.50 per megawatt hour unveiled this week for two giant wind projects, half the levels struck in contracts two years ago. They already knew that the technology is advancing by leaps and bounds. But it seems to have stunned everybody else.”
    Homewood states: “The strike prices agreed for the three new projects this week range from £57.50 to £74.75/MWh. But these are at 2012 prices, so we are actually looking at prices up to £81/MWh, which is nearly double the market price.”

    Wind turbines could power Scottish smelter and steel plants
    GFG Alliance propose a wind farm in the Scottish Highlands to power aluminium smelter plant in Fort William and a steel plant in Motherwell
    By Shafi Musaddique, Independent, UK, Sep 6, 2017…

    Questioning European Green

    German Energy Expert Shreds Wind Power: “Everyone’s Loses With Wind Energy”!
    By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 9, 2017…

    Questioning Green Elsewhere

    Fort Collins zero-energy district powers down (Colorado)
    By Kevin Duggan, Coloradoan, Sep 10, 2017…
    “A nationally known Fort Collins initiative that promoted clean energy, innovation and community collaboration has run out of steam.
    “The project received a $6.3 million grant from the U.S. Department of Energy and an addition $5 million in funding from local contributors.
    “It was esoteric, complicated stuff, the kind of thing that might not resonate with the general public, who just want lights, fans and computers to turn on with the flip of a switch.”

    Our electricity crisis is “the cost of virtue signalling”
    By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 16, 2017…

    Government walks away from Alan Finkel’s CET [Clean Energy Target]
    By Staff Writers, Financial Review [AU] Sep 13, 2017 [H/t GWPF]…

    Green Madness: Australia Has Gone From Cheapest to Most Expensive [Electrical] Power
    By Judith Sloan, The Australian, Via GWPF, Sep 14, 2017…

    Subsidies and Mandates Forever

    The great electric car debate
    By Martin Livermore, The Scientific Alliance, Sep 1, 2017…
    “Car buyers have never had a public subsidy, although owners have been nudged in what the government of the day sees as the right direction by tweaking road tax levels.”

    Tesla battery, subsidy, and sustainability fantasies
    By Paul Driessen, C-Fact, July 24, 2017…

    EPA and other Regulators on the March

    EPA delays toxic waste rule for power plants
    By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Sep 13, 2017…
    [SEPP Comment: At what concentration is the waste toxic?]

    Energy Issues – Non-US

    World Energy Use Projected to Increase 29% by 2040
    By Staff Writers, GWPF, Sep 15, 2017…
    Link to report: EIA projects 28% increase in world energy use by 2040
    By Staff Writers, EIA, Sep 14, 2017…

    Projections to 2050: International Energy Outlook 2017
    By Staff Writers, EIA, 2017…
    [SEPP Comment: Renewables increase rapidly, petroleum and natural gas increase, nuclear increases slowly and coal declines slowly.]

    Nick Butler: The Energy Lessons of Hurricane Harvey
    By Nick Butler, Financial Times, Via GWPF, Sep 11, 2017…
    “Primary sources — the raw materials — need to be processed and converted into forms of energy that can be used by consumers. Crude oil must be refined into gasoline or other products, gas or coal converted to electricity. And the lines and grids must be in place to take energy from the point of production to the point of consumption.”

    Latest CfD Auction–Offshore Wind Only Double Market Price
    By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 11, 2017

    Energy Issues – Australia

    Momentum shifts on Renewables Targets in Australia (mini revolt brewing)
    By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 15, 2017…

    UPDATE: Malcolm Roberts, One Nation replies the two-stroke mower change is about real pollution, not CO2
    By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 15, 2017…
    “Please note that Soichiro Honda himself banned his company from making 2-stroke outboard motors in the 1970’s after he visited Lake Tahoe and was shocked to see oil film on its waters. That pollution was produced by 2-stroke outboard motors.”
    [SEPP Comment: Does the problem that applied to two-stroke outboard motors apply to other two-stroke engines as well?]

    Energy Issues — US

    Everyone is Missing Something in the Grid Study
    By Josh Smith, Real Clear Energy, Sep 14, 2017…
    Link to report: Staff Report to the Secretary on Electricity Markets and Reliability
    By Staff Writers, DOE, August, 2017…
    Link to study on subsidies: Two Thirds of a Century and $1 Trillion+ U.S. Energy Incentives Analysis of Federal Expenditures for Energy Development, 1950-2016 By Staff Writers, Management Information Services, May 2017…
    “According to a report by Management Information Services, Inc., a DC consulting firm, the oil and gas industry has received 54 percent of all energy incentives since 1950. Federal energy incentives and favoritism only recently flipped to favor renewables––and flipped big. From 2011 to 2016, renewable energy got more than three times what oil, natural gas, coal, and nuclear received combined.”
    [SEPP Comment: Contrary to a comment by the author, the energized system is built to connect users with electricity generators. The amount of energy produced by renewables is minor and will be unreliable regardless of subsidies.]

    Renewable energy, conventional wisdom, and the bottom line
    By John Gardner, Idaho Business Review, Sep 11, 2017…

    Washington’s Control of Energy

    Trump moving toward energy exploration in Arctic wildlife refuge: report
    By Max Greenwood, The Hill, Sep 15, 2017…

    97-Year-Old Law May Be The Cause Of Higher Gas Prices
    By William Murray, Oil, Sep 11, 2017…
    Link to report – slides: Jones Act: Petroleum Trade Flows and Transportation Costs
    By Staff Writers, Turner Mason & Company, American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, Jan 2016…

    Wait A Minute Mr. FERC-Man – How A Recent Court Ruling Could Impede New Gas Pipelines
    By Rick Smead, RBN Energy, Sep 10, 2017…

    Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?

    The Boring Truth About Oil Prices
    By Peter Tertzakian, Oil, Sep 13, 2017…
    [SEPP Comment: The thrill ride is over, so are the high-stakes betting games.]

    Like Strait of Hormuz, Gulf Coast energy hub is now “too important to fail,” IEA says
    By Collin Eaton, Houston Chronicle, Sep 13, 2017…

    Oil Barrels Aren’t Real Anymore
    Once a cask that held crude, the oil barrel is now mostly an economic concept. An Object Lesson.
    By Brian Jacobson, The Atlantic, Sep 8, 2017…
    [SEPP Comment: What was once a convenient means of transporting liquid fuels has become little more than a unit of measurement.]

    Nuclear Energy and Fears

    Dome installed at sixth Hongyanhe unit
    By Staff Writers, WNN, Sep 8, 2017…

    Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles

    China Fossil Fuel Deadline Shifts Focus to Electric Car Race
    Regulators working on timetable for the ban, official says
    China joins U.K., France to phase out combustion-engine cars
    By Staff Writers, Bloomberg, Sep 10, 2017…
    [SEPP Comment: More coal and nuclear-powered cars?]

    German Analysis: Florida Evacuation With E-Vehicles Would Mean “Mass Death On The Highways”
    By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 12, 2017…
    “Yesterday Michael Limburg of the Germany-based European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE) here posted a brainstorming thought exercise, posing the question of what would the evacuation of Florida look like if most of the cars were electric”

    Imagine Escaping a Hurricane in a Tesla
    Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 12, 2017…

    Carbon Schemes

    St Fergus carbon capture scheme could make Scotland ‘key player’ in storage
    Peterhead Power Station was the original proposed site for such a scheme.
    A pioneering new carbon capture and storage scheme could be about to rise from the ashes of the abandoned £1billion Peterhead project.
    By Jennifer McKiernan, Aberdeen Journals, Energy Voice, June 9, 2017 [H/t Energy Matters]…

    California Dreaming

    California should go all in on clean energy
    By Kathryn Phillips, Sacramento Bee, Sep 12, 2017…

    California clean energy proposals face demise as opposition fails to yield
    By Chris Megerian, LA Times, Sep 14, 2017…

    Health, Energy, and Climate

    An Air Pollution Paradox?
    By Meredith Fowlie, Energy Collective, Sep 12, 2017…
    Link to Lancet Report: Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2015
    By Aaron J. Cohen, et al. Lancet, May 13, 2017…30505-6.pdf)
    From the Abstract: Findings Ambient PM2·5 was the fifth-ranking mortality risk factor in 2015. Exposure to PM2·5 caused 4·2 million … deaths and 103·1 million … disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2015, representing 7·6% of total global deaths and 4·2% of global DALYs, 59% of these in east and south Asia. Deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 increased from 3·5 million … in 1990 to 4·2 million … in 2015. Exposure to ozone caused an additional 254 000 … deaths and a loss of 4·1 million … DALYs from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in 2015.” [For readability, the estimates of probabilities and ranges were eliminated.]
    [SEPP Comment: Statistical nonsense based on highly speculative adverse health effects of PM 2.5. According to the world map in the article, those living in the desert belt of the Sahara, Arabia, and Asia should have high mortality rates from lung disorders, including “asthma, acute bronchitis, lung cancer, stroke, and heart disease.” If the article is correct, which it is not, those living in the desert belt will greatly benefit from increased CO2, which is greening the deserts.]

    Other News that May Be of Interest

    $20 Trillion in National Debt Is a Big Deal
    By Maya MacGuineas, Real Clear Policy, Sep 15, 2017…

    Principles Versus Rules in Free Trade
    Britain has a chance to revitalise global free trade to the benefit of all
    By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, Sep 11, 2017…
    “Why does the European Union raise a tariff on coffee? It has no coffee industry to protect so the sole effect is to make coffee more expensive for all Europeans.”
    “As Adam Smith said, you should never ‘attempt to make at home what it will cost [you] more to make than to buy . . . What is prudence in the conduct of every private family can scarce be folly in that of a great kingdom.’”

    To guard against climate change, Los Angeles is painting its streets white
    They plan to lower the temperature by 3 degrees over the next 20 years.
    By Jeremy Deaton, Nexus Media, Sep 6, 2017 [H/t Toshio Fujita]…
    [SEPP Comment: No mention of costs. Also, the principal part of the Urban Heat Island effect is keeping the urban areas warmer at night.]

    Winton Capital Sets Up Climate Change Prediction Market
    By Lindsay Fortado, Financial Times, Via GWPF, Sep 12, 2017…
    [SEPP Comment: Everyone can gamble on the projections / predictions; but unlike politicians, there is a cost if you are wrong!]

    Ban livestock!
    By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions, Sep 14, 2017…

    “According to a new report published by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, the livestock sector generates more greenhouse gas emissions as measured in CO2 equivalent – 18 percent – than transport.
    “It is also a major source of land and water degradation.
    “Says Henning Steinfeld, Chief of FAO’s Livestock Information and Policy Branch and senior author of the report: ‘Livestock are one of the most significant contributors to today’s most serious environmental problems. Urgent action is required to remedy the situation.’”
    FAONewsroom, 29 Nov 2006

    1. Preventing the other climate catastrophe
    Periodic global cooling might be thwarted by geoengineering
    By S. Fred Singer, Washington Times, Sep 12, 2017…

    SUMMARY: The Chairman of SEPP writes:

    “Climate cooling, as opposed to warming, presents serious problems for humanity. As cooling causes agriculture to fail, most of the world’s population will starve and we will be reduced from its present level to about a million, hunting animals and collecting nuts and seeds for sustenance. This has happened before during the ice ages, when nomadic bands of prehistoric humans had to shelter in caves for protection from the cold, and had to rely on uncertain supplies of food.

    “Geoengineering to combat global warming is controversial. It is expensive and presents risks to the environment. However, when geoengineering is applied against climate cooling, both expense and risk become minor items.”

    Singer asserts there are two types of global cooling events: 1) orbital; and 2) solar. The orbital cooling is described by Milankovitch, and is responsible for the ice ages over the past 2 to 3 million years. These events may last 100,000 years and cause severe hardship on humanity. Dumping black soot onto polar summer ice may help prevent, or at least lessen such wide-spread glaciation.

    The solar cooling is caused by changes in the activity of the sun, is far shorter, and less severe; yet, is dangerous to civilization. The Little Ice Age is an example. Releasing additional CO2 will not prevent it, because the heat absorption ability of atmospheric CO2 is virtually saturated and additional amounts will not have much an impact. Releasing water vapor in the tropopause, the boundary between the troposphere and stratosphere, at an altitude of about 12 kilometers may do the trick.

    Singer concludes:

    “While there is much current discussion about geoengineering, the expense and the risk have been forbidding. I strongly believe that the time is right for conducting experiments to test the concepts described above to offset a sure-to-occur catastrophic climate cooling.

    “In a nutshell, as opposed to global warming, global cooling is a very real problem for a number of reasons. Based on the historic past, we can be sure that cooling will occur again, and maybe very soon. When it does occur, it will have serious effects on agriculture and lead to mass starvation. Unlike for warming, geoengineering against cooling seems physically possible, relatively inexpensive and environmentally benign.”

    2. The Climate-Change Distraction
    It’s confusing, causally incorrect and diverts resources from real solutions to real problems.
    By Bjorn Lomborg, WSJ, Sep 7, 2017…

    SUMMARY: Arguing that climate change is a problem, author of “The Skeptical Environmentalist” writes:

    “Climate change has been blamed for a dizzying array of absurd woes, from the dwindling number of customers at Bulgarian brothels to the death of the Loch Ness monster. Most of us can see through these silly headlines, but it’s far harder to parse the more serious claims when they’re repeated in good faith by well-meaning campaigners.

    “Consider the recent assertion by Unicef’s Bangladesh head of mission that climate change leads to an increase in child marriages. Between 2011 and 2020 globally, more than 140 million girls under the age of 18 will become brides, leading to curtailed education and reduced lifetime earnings, more domestic violence, more deaths from complications due to pregnancy and increased mortality for the young brides’ children. By all accounts, child marriage must be taken seriously.

    “In Bangladesh, nearly 75% of women between the ages of 20 and 49 reported that they were married before they turned 18, giving the country the second-highest rate of child marriage in the world. As the Unicef head tells it, climate change has been a major cause, as warmer weather has worsened the flooding, pushing people to the cities, leading to more child marriages.

    “This entire string of logic is wrong. The frequency of extreme floods in Bangladesh has increased, it’s true, but studies show their magnitude and duration have in fact decreased. And Bangladesh is far better at adapting today than it was a generation ago. In 1974, a flood killed 29,000 people and cost 7.5% of the country’s gross domestic product. A slightly larger flood in 2004 killed 761 people and cost 3.3% of GDP.

    “Nor is Unicef right to claim a connection between flooding and urbanization. A study published in the Journal of Biosocial Science found that living in cities doesn’t increase the likelihood of child marriages in Bangladesh. Rather, it was “significantly higher among rural women.” According to another study, published in the Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment, the average age of marriage in cities is 16.15 years, compared to 15.08 years in rural areas.

    “This isn’t surprising. Across the world, there’s a convergence between low urbanization rates and higher child-marriage rates. In Africa, the three worst countries for child marriage—Chad, Mali and Niger—also have the lowest levels of urbanization.

    “Given the weak links between warming, flooding, urbanization and the contrary link between urbanization and child marriage, climate policies would be the least effective in addressing the problem. Copenhagen Consensus research shows that we need to focus instead on nutrition and education, political opportunities for girls and women, and improving women’s rights to inherit and start a business.”

    Lomborg gives an example of a successful program in Bangladesh, then discusses malaria which he states is a consequence of poverty. If fully enacted, the Kyoto Protocol would have done little to relieve suffering from malaria. He concludes by stating:

    “None of this means that we should ignore climate change. But to respond properly we need to stick to the facts and maintain a sense of perspective, avoiding tenuous connections and ineffective solutions that ultimately divert resources away from fixing the real problems.”