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    The Week That Was: 2018-04-07 (April 7, 2018)
    Brought to You by SEPP, The Science and Environmental Policy)

    PLEASE NOTE: The complete TWTW can be downloaded in an easily printable form at this web site:…
    Please forward this Newsletter to those interested in Science and Environmental Policy. Thank you. Forward.
    Quote of the Week.
    “The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands in times of challenge and controversy.” – Martin Luther King Jr.

    Number of the Week: 0.013%

    By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

    Adjusting Data: SEPP Chairman emeritus Fred Singer has an essay in The Hill, a newspaper targeted for Capitol Hill, namely the US legislature. In the essay, Singer recognizes the importance of adjusting data. But, there is a right way and a wrong way to go about it. Singer uses actions by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and its National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) to exemplify both ways. NCDC is now called the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). It is entrusted for “preserving, monitoring, assessing, and providing public access to the Nation’s treasure of climate and historical weather data and information.” [Boldface added.] According to the American Institute of Physics, NOAA’s enacted budget for Fiscal Year 2018 is $5.9 billion, up 4% from FY 2017.

    Singer believes that NOAA and NCDC (NCEI) have received both justified and unjustified criticism for its treatment of “the Nation’s Treasure.” He writes:

    “It is important for the public to gain some perspective on such changes before indulging in wild accusations. Equally important, NOAA must use more transparency and not only announce data adjustments, but explain them so that reasonable people of goodwill will understand.”

    He explains that adjustments to data for moving weather stations are completely understandable. But, adjustments made to data immediately prior to the Paris Conference are not. It was an effort to explain away “the pause.” Further, Singer believes that the warming shown in the US record in the last decades of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century are unjustified and are inconsistent with other records of surface temperature.

    See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy,…

    Adjusting Data Correctly: According to Singer, to maintain public confidence and assure accuracy when adjusting data, an organization needs to be transparent and use all appropriate available data to cross check the work. In short, frequent testing is needed. It appears that the team at the Earth System Science Center (ESSC) of the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) has done that.

    Some time ago UAH reported that the satellite identified as NOAA-14 (operating in the 1990s and 2000s) was giving questionable readings. This led to spurious warming trends in the four datasets compiled from the data: UAH, RSS (Remote Sensing Systems), NOAA, and UW (University of Washington). Orbital drift is a problem with all satellite measurements, but the problem appeared to be worse with NOAA-14 than any other.

    As the ESSC team was preparing the latest version of the UAH dataset, they recognized that the problem with NOAA-14 was becoming severe and implemented two important changes. They stopped using data from NOAA-14 in 2001 and implemented an algorithm (processes or mathematical formulas) to limit the error from readings by other satellites. [Algorithms are useful in correcting errors if there is a consistency in the errors. If there is no consistency in error, their use is doubtful.] A key to realizing there was a problem with NOAA-14 was that it was showing greater warming than NOAA-15, which was launched in the late 1990s.

    After they built the latest dataset (Version 6.0) the ESSC team analyzed their earlier version as well as the other three datasets. In this analysis they used datasets from U.S. weather balloons, that had not changed software or instruments for the major part of the NOAA-14 record. These data came from NOAA, the University of Vienna and the University of New South Wales.

    This data were coupled with global weather “reanalysis” data from the European Center for Medium Range Forecasts, the Japan Climate Research Group and NASA. Reanalysis data is very important in correcting and updating weather forecasts and, hopefully, improving numerical weather models. This effort gave the ESSC team weather balloon data from 564 stations around the world.

    The work was published by the International Journal of Remote Sensing and is available on-line. Based on their analysis, the global (near global) atmospheric warming trend is 0.07 to 0.13°C per decade and the tropical (20°S-20°N) trend is +0.10 ± 0.03°C decade. This is where Mr. Santer’s distinct human fingerprint should be, so prominently emphasized in the Second Assessment Report (AR-2) of the UN Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC).

    The importance of the study is illustrated in one sentence:

    “The satellite-monitored layer for this study is commonly referred as the mid-troposphere (TMT) because the peak of energy received by the satellite originates in the mid to upper troposphere with the main weighting function (96% of the signal) going from the surface to 70 hPa.” [To about 60,000 feet, 18,000 meters.]

    The authors estimate that the warming trend of the (nearly) global bulk atmosphere layer is 0.10 ± 0.03°C decade. This is where the greenhouse effect occurs. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

    What Does It Mean? The analysis by the ESSC team is useful in evaluating the work of the IPCC, the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), and their followers. For that reason, one can expect that it will be ignored by those entrenched in Bureaucratic Science. The 40-year icon of CO2-caused global warming is that a doubling of CO2 will result in a warming of 3°C plus or minus 1.5°C, from the Charney Report. The data record discussed above is from 1979 (December 1978) to December 2016, during which time the atmospheric CO2 concentration rose from 335 ppm to 404 ppm, an increase of 20.6%. This works out to 0.54% per year for the 38-year record. At that rate it would take about 190 years to double CO2.

    Assuming the entire calculated warming trend of 0.1 °C per decade is from CO2 and indirect influences (positive feedbacks such as water vapot) caused by CO2, the 38-year trend indicates a doubling of CO2 would require almost 190 years and cause a warming of less than 2°C. Given natural variation, the warming trend is hardly cause for alarm.

    The issue is further complicated by the earlier part of the atmospheric record includes a cooling from aerosols emitted by volcanoes and the later part includes a warming from sea temperatures surface by El Niños. These efforts can be removed from the data using widely-accepted statistical techniques such as those employed by Wallace, et al. Using such techniques would reveal the dangerous, “unprecedented” atmospheric warming is insignificant.

    Twenty years ago, Richard Lindzen wrote a paper questioning whether CO2 could cause significant warming. In his conclusion, he stated::

    “Indirect estimates, based on response to volcanos, suggest sensitivity may be as small as 0.3–0.5°C for a doubling of CO2, which is well within the range of natural variability.”

    Of course, the paper has been largely ignored by bureaucratic scientists who prefer to alarm the public rather than accurately discuss science. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

    Exxon’s Secret Science Revealed? A reporter for Legal News Line, Daniel Fisher, discovered Exxon’s “secret science” claimed in the Public Nuisance complaint by the cities of Oakland and San Francisco against oil companies. It involved a group formed by the American Petroleum Institute called the Global Climate Coalition (GCC). The plaintiff lawyers claimed a memo by GCC contained evidence of scientific knowledge that Exxon was trying to hide from the public. According to the reporter: the secret was a summary of the IPCC AR-2, 1995, which included Mr. Santer’s mysterious distinct human fingerprint, the hot spot, which is still missing, or barely visible, even 20 years later.

    Former SEPP Chairman, the late Fredrick Seitz, called the process involved in inserting the terminology of a distinct human fingerprint the worse abuse of the peer review process he had seen in 60 years of American science. Numerous times, Fred Singer and TWTW have brought up the missing hot spot. As stated in the new ESSC paper a weak hot spot, regardless of cause, indicates that the earth is less sensitive to greenhouse gases than claimed by the IPCC:

    “Lower trends would suggest relatively modest sensitivity of the climate system to extra greenhouse gas forcing, while higher trends would support greater sensitivity. Thus, the trend magnitudes are critical, for example, to understanding the response of the climate system to enhanced forcing. In this paper, our focus will be on the credibility of the datasets and associated trends, suggesting reasons for their differences and offering a best estimate based on multiple, independent efforts.”

    A search of the docket for the District Court in the case did not reveal an amended filing by San Francisco, perhaps it had not been entered yet, but it did reveal an amended filing by Oakland. The statements of the reporter are supported. Among other things, the amended filing stated:

    “In February 1996, an internal GCC presentation summarized findings from the 1995 IPCC Second Assessment report and stated that the projected temperature change by 2100 would constitute ‘an average rate of warming [that] would probably be greater than any seen in the past 10,000 years.’” [Note that the rate of warming from 20,000 to 10,000 years ago is more interesting.]

    Is one to assume that by quoting the IPCC, one accepts its highly questionable science? The amended complaint further states: [The numbers are paragraph numbers.]

    110 “Between 1998 and 2014, Exxon paid millions of dollars to organizations to promote disinformation on global warming. During the early- to mid-1990s, Exxon directed some of this funding to Dr. Fred Seitz, Dr. Fred Singer, and/or Seitz and Singer’s Science and Environmental Policy Project (“SEPP”) in order to launch repeated attacks on mainstream climate science and IPCC conclusions, even as Exxon scientists participated in the IPCC. Seitz, Singer and SEPP had previously been paid by the tobacco industry to create doubt in the public mind about the hazards of smoking. Seitz and Singer were not climate scientists.”

    111 “Exxon’s promotion of fossil fuels also entailed the funding of denialist groups that attacked well-respected scientists Dr. Benjamin Santer and Dr. Michael Mann, maligning their characters and seeking to discredit their scientific conclusions with media attacks and bogus studies in order to undermine the IPCC’s 1995 and 2001 conclusion that human-driven global warming is now occurring.”

    SEPP strongly demands the Cities produce evidence of their accusations, which SEPP asserts are false.

    The filing concludes with maps showing a projected sea level rise in 2050. It shows the Oakland Airport and parts of the wealthy community of Alameda underwater. Has the City informed the bond holders and the residents that their securities and homes may be unsaleable because they will be submerged? See links under Litigation Issues — California

    In Defense of Oakland and San Francisco: To substantiate their claims, the cities used Myles Allen of the Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, and Professor in the Department of Physics, University of Oxford. He is a long-time climate alarm advocate, author of IPCC reports, and involved with the Attribution of Climate-related Events (ACE) initiative.

    A few slides in his presentation stand out:

    “Evidence that a detectable signal was not needed to make predictions. (One can make predictions based on nothing.)
    Warming is unequivocal (See Singer’s comments above)
    Formal comparison of expected responses to known drivers (‘fingerprints’) allowed the null-hypothesis of negligible human influence to be rejected at the 95% confidence level (P<0.05) back in the 1990s
    Human-induced warming is now 1°C ± 0.15°C, about 80% due to CO2”

    A number of slides were based on sea level rise, including increasing ice loss in the cryosphere.

    On Climate Etc. Judith Curry summed her review of evidence that sea level rise is accelerating with the statement: “The concern about sea level rise is driven primarily by projections of future sea level rise.”

    In short, the fears of dire global warming, accelerating sea level rise, etc. are based on global climate models that fail basic tests to accurately predict atmospheric temperatures. Apparently, even the poster child of dire sea level rise, the Maldives, are no longer concerned – they are building a runway to handle the world’s largest passenger plane. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy, Changing Seas, and Below the Bottom Line.

    Reverse Osmosis for Tidewater? The fear of salt water intrusion in coastal communities greatly plays into the hands of those who use highly questionable models to claim major sea level rise in the future. For some US communities, entities of NOAA produced studies greatly exaggerating this risk, and ignoring the real problem: the land is sinking due to ground water extraction. By ignoring the real threat and pretending the false threat, these entities of NOAA have demonstrated they no longer serve public interests or for the public benefit.

    In the past, coastal communities had one alternative to solve the problem of sinking land from ground water extraction, build reservoirs and pipelines, either nearby or at considerable distance. For example, Los Angeles and New York City rely on piped water. An alternative has been developed that appears to be cost effective: desalination using reverse osmosis.

    The concept has been around for some time, but reverse osmosis can be expensive for desalination because algae thrives in the filters, forcing expensive replacements. The Israelis are widely expanding desalination through reverse osmosis by using porous lava rock for prefiltering the water, removing the algae. Carlsbad, California, implemented a similar system, using layers of anthracite (hard coal), gravel, and sand for filtration. After over a year of operation the operating costs seem reasonable – under $7 dollars per 1,000 gallons. See links under Other News that May Be of Interest.

    He Must Go! EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt has been a lightning rod of criticism against President Trump, as if Mr. Trump needed one. Mr. Pruitt has declared that the EPA will no longer base regulations on science that is not transparent (secret science), eliminated the long-established practice of channeling moneys from government litigation against private companies to politically favored special interest groups, and is now proposing to soften the fuel economic standards for automobiles, a relic of the fear of running out of oil. No wonder why many green politicians and green organizations are demanding he must go. See Article # 1 and links under Change in US Administrations.

    Junk Electricity? Power expert Donn Dears has been writing essays on how wind and solar are disrupting the electrical grid. The problems stem from government mandates and the auction system for the grid operator accepting delivery of electricity. The term dispatchable is important, it means that the grid operator can dispatch, transmit, electricity to the consumer when needed. Driven by nature, wind and solar power are not dispatchable (though efforts are being made to make industrial solar dispatchable in appropriate regions.)

    The grid can be looked upon as an energized system, serving all on it, consumers and producers. It is similar to a nervous system serving all organs in the human body. Solar and wind power do not reliably serve all the consumers and producers on the grid. Thus, they can be looked upon as a form of junk food, pleasing to some senses, but not needed or beneficial to the entire system. They can be called junk electricity. See links under Energy Issues – US.

    Number of the Week: 0.013%. Another dire emergency of sea level rise from the “collapsing” West Antarctica ice sheet arose this week from a paper in Nature Geographic. As stated in previous TWTWs the “collapse” is in geological terms of thousands of years, and the ice sheet is on the Antarctic fault / rift with over 100 geothermal hot spots (active or inactive volcanoes). It is similar to the mid-Atlantic rift that runs through Iceland, providing hot springs, geothermal warming, and electricity to that island. On her web site, Jo Nova calculated that the area of Antarctica covered by ice discussed in the latest crisis is 0.013% of the area of Antarctica covered by ice. The volume of ice is far less, what is smaller than miniscule? See link under Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice.


    SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving, following these criteria:

    • The nominee has advanced, or proposes to advance, significant expansion of governmental power, regulation, or control over the public or significant sections of the general economy.
    • The nominee does so by declaring such measures are necessary to protect public health, welfare, or the environment.
    • The nominee declares that physical science supports such measures.
    • The physical science supporting the measures is flimsy at best, and possibly non-existent.

    The six past recipients, Lisa Jackson, Barrack Obama, John Kerry, Ernest Moniz, John Holdren and Gena McCarthy are not eligible. Generally, the committee that makes the selection prefers a candidate with a national or international presence. The voting will close on July 30. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to Thank you. The award will be presented at the annual meeting of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness in August.

    Note: Due to international travel, next week’s TWTW may arrive late.


    Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

    Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
    Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2013…

    Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
    Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2014…

    Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
    The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
    By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, NIPCC, Nov 23, 2015
    Download with no charge…

    Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
    S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008…

    Challenging the Orthodoxy

    Yes, NOAA must adjust data — but its climate record really is quite wrong
    By S. Fred Singer, The Hill, Mar 29, 2018…

    Examination of space-based bulk atmospheric temperatures used in climate research
    By Christy, Spencer, Braswell, Junod, International Journal of Remote Sensing, Mar 8, 2018 [H/t WUWT]…

    UAH finds a warming error in satellite data, lowers “tropical hotspot” temperature trend, contradicts IPCC models
    By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Apr 6, 2018…

    Weather satellite wanders through time, space, causing stray warming to contaminate data
    By Staff Writers,, Apr 5, 2018 [H/t Cooler Heads]…
    [SEPP Comment: A useful article, with an unfortunate title.]

    Can increasing carbon dioxide cause climate change?
    By Richard S. Lindzen, PNAS, Aug 5, 1997,…

    New Paper: Unseen worlds of Wonder under Our Noses
    By Staff Writers, GWPF, Apr 6, 2018…

    Model falsifiability and climate slow modes
    By Christopher Essex and Anastasios A. Tsonis, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, July 15, 2018…

    Does the Greenhouse Gas CO2 cool the climate?
    By S. Fred Singer, American Thinker, Apr 2, 2018…

    Circular reasoning with climate models
    By David Wojick, CFACT, Mar 1, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: Excellent description of the circular reasoning used by the IPCC, the USGCRP, and the EPA in its endangerment finding.]

    Speculation versus research in climate science
    By David Wojick, C-Fact, Mar 30, 2018…

    Appeasement in the Bizarre World of Climate, Politics, and Big Oil
    Guest Opinion: Dr. Tim Ball, WUWT, Apr 5, 2018…

    Climate Change on Trial
    By Michael Kile, Quadrant, Mr 29, 2018…
    Indeed, the credibility of the “relatively young science” of extreme weather attribution, the legitimacy of its ambition to “tease out the influence of human-caused climate change from other factors”, the whole alarmist movement and fate of the UN’s Green Climate Fund, all crucially depend on delivering such a legal argument.
    [SEPP Comment: Creation of the Attribution of Climate-related Events (ACE) initiative. Myles Allen involved.]

    Trillions going to waste on climate change ‘groupthink’
    By Harry Wilkinson, The Conservative Woman, Mar 31, 2018…

    Ex-NOAA Climate Scientist: ‘No Role Of CO2 In Any Significant Change Of The Earth’s Climate’
    By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Apr 5, 2018…

    It Is Time to Decrease the Influence of the CIC Swamp Dwellers, Not Scott Pruitt
    By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, Apr 6, 2018…

    Defending the Orthodoxy

    Leaked draft summary of UN special report on 1.5C climate goal – in full
    Read the draft summary for policymakers of the most important climate science report of the year, on the challenge of holding global warming to 1.5C
    By Megan Darby, Climate Home News, Feb 13, 2018 [H/t Toshio Fujita]…
    Link: IPCC special report on 1.5C – draft summary for policymakers
    By Myles Allen, et al. IPCC, Jan 8, 2018…
    Link to transcript: People of California v. Oil Companies, Mar 21, 2018
    Understanding how carbon dioxide emissions from human activity contribute to global climate change
    By Myles Allen, Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment & Department of Physics University of Oxford….pdf)

    Boston Judge Accepts Climate Necessity Defence, Dismisses Charges
    Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Mar 31, 2018…

    Jane Lubchenco, prominent marine ecologist and science leader, to receive 2018 Vannevar Bush Award
    By Staff Writers, NSF, Apr 3, 208….
    [SEPP Comment: Under her leadership, NOAA began to debase the “Nation’s Treasure” of historic climate and weather information.]

    The Consensus Handbook
    By John Cook, Sander van der Linden, Edward Mailbach, and Stephan Lewandowsky, 2018
    [SEPP Comment: George Gallop emphasized that those conducting polls must do everything possible to remove bias in their questions, in the sample, and in the interpretation of the results. These pollsters deliberately introduced biases in their questions, samples, and results. Politicians citing their polls should be challenged by asking how do your professional pollsters evaluate the “unbiased” nature of these polls?]

    UK Climate Act Not Tough Enough, Say Krebs and Haigh
    By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 4, 2018
    [SEPP Comment: Punish the poor more!]

    Questioning the Orthodoxy

    Modern Warming – Climate Variability or Climate Change?
    Guest Post By Renee Hannon, WUWT, Mar 28, 2018…

    New DOE study on methane raises more questions than it answers
    By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Apr 2, 2018…
    Link to abstract: Observationally derived rise in methane surface forcing mediated by water vapour trends
    By D.R. Feldman, et al, Nature Geoscience, Apr 2, 2018…
    Link to paper:…

    CAP Backs Down When Challenged
    By Roger Pielke Jr. The Climate Fix, Apr 5, 2018…
    “When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser” – Socrates

    After Paris!

    What’s Really Happening In The World Of CO2 Emissions?
    By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Apr 6, 2018…

    Change in US Administrations

    End EPA’s Ideology-Driven Slush Funds
    By Jack Rafuse, Real Clear Energy, Apr 4, 2018…
    “…BP was ordered to pay up to $8.8 billion to the Natural Resource Damage Assessment Trustees in order to fund restoration work on the Gulf of Mexico. Again, while this may seem related, the money going to coastal restoration was also used to fund projects not directly related to the spill.”

    EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt Suspended Obama Era Fuel Standards for 2022. He’s Got the Science Right.
    By Patrick Michaels and Ryan Maue, CATO, Apr 4, 2018…

    Trump Dismantles Another Obama ‘Achievement’ — Just One More To Go
    Editorial, IBD, Apr 3, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment; The editorial forgets EPA finding that CO2 endangers public health and welfare is based on imaginary science – using long range projections from models that fail basic tests.]

    EPA’s Scott Pruitt Begins Repeal Of Obama Climate Regs For Cars, Trucks
    By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Apr 2, 2018…

    Problems in the Orthodoxy

    A benefit of “ocean acidification” – more herring
    By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 29, 2018…
    Link to paper: Food web changes under ocean acidification promote herring larvae survival
    By Michael Sswat, et al, Nature Ecology & Evolution, Mar 19, 2018…

    EU carbon market emissions rise for first time in 7 years in 2017
    By Susanna Twidale, Reuters, Apr 3, 2018…

    Seeking a Common Ground

    With us or against us: revisiting the facts
    By Martin Livermore, The Scientific Alliance, Apr 6, 2018…

    Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science

    Which is the Most Accurate Satellite-Derived Temperature Dataset?
    Christy, J.R., Spencer, R.W., Braswell, W.D. and Junod, R. 2018. Examination of space-based bulk atmospheric temperatures used in climate research. International Journal of Remote Sensing 39: 3580-3607. Apr 6, 2018…

    The Phenotypic Plasticity of a Colonial Bryozoan
    Swezey, D.S., Bean, J.R., Hill, T.M., Gaylord, B., Ninokawa, A.T. and Sanford, E. 2017. Plastic responses of bryozoans to ocean acidification. Journal of Experimental Biology 220: 4399-4409. Apr 5, 2018…

    The Interactive Effects of Elevated CO2 and Gamma Ray Irradiation
    Moghaddam, S.S., Ibrahim, R., Damalas, C.A. and Noorhosseini, S.A. 2017. Effects of gamma stress and carbon dioxide on eight bioactive flavonoids and photosynthetic efficiency in Centella asiatica. Journal of Plant Growth Regulation 36: 957-969. Apr 4, 2018…
    “And thus we find that more CO2 is good; it improves photosynthesis and frees up carbon molecules to be utilized in other processes, such as the production of antioxidants, which benefit human health.”

    Putting Future Projections of Coastal California Sea Level Rise Projections in Context
    Parker, A. and Ollier, C.D. 2017. California sea level rise: Evidence based forecasts vs. model predictions. Ocean & Coastal Management 149: 198-209. Apr 3, 2018…

    Measurement Issues — Surface

    BOM homogenization errors are so big they can be seen from space
    Comparison UAH and BOM temperatures and homogenization Part II
    Guest Post by Tom Quirk, Jo Nova’s Blog, Apr 2, 2018…

    Measurement Issues — Atmosphere

    UAH Global Temperature Updated for March, 2018: +0.24 deg. C
    By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Apr 2, 2018…

    Satellite going AWOL at 28,000km/hr — tracking that Chinese stray machinery
    By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 31, 2018…

    Changing Weather

    ENSO forecast for 2018
    By Jim Johnstone and Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Apr 5, 2018…

    An Empirical Reexamination: How Two Recent Major El Niño Periods Compare
    By Staff Writer, C3 Headlines, Mar 31, 2018 [H/t GWPF]…
    • “There is no convincing evidence from the empirical temperature record to suggest that the differences/similarities are nothing more than the expected natural variation seen when comparing the two powerful natural climate/weather phenomenon.
    • “There is no empirical evidence that higher CO2 levels resulted in the overall higher temp anomalies of the 2015-16 El Niño. With a monthly anomaly average being only +0.35°C higher, that is likely in the realm of natural variance.”

    A Record-Breaking Atmospheric River Hits California and Strong Marine Cyclone Offshore of Washington
    By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Apr 7, 2018…
    “Just a reminder– an atmospheric river is a narrow current of high moisture values, originating in the tropics and subtropics, that is associated with warm air and heavy rain, particularly when into coastal terrain. In our neck of the woods, atmospheric rivers are often termed a pineapple express.” [From an earlier post.]

    Changing Seas

    Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Projections for the 21st century
    By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Apr 2, 2018…
    “The concern about sea level rise is driven primarily by projections of future sea level rise.”

    Errorless Global Mean Sea Level Rise
    Brief Comment by Kip Hansen, WUWT, Apr 2, 2018…

    Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

    Antarctica’s Underwater Ice Is Retreating 5 Times Faster Than It Should Be
    By Brandon Specktor, Live Science, Apr 3, 2018…
    Link to paper: Net retreat of Antarctic glacier grounding lines
    By Hannes Konrad, et al, Nature Geoscience, Apr 2, 2018…
    “Between 2010 and 2016, 22%, 3% and 10% of surveyed grounding lines in West Antarctica, East Antarctica and at the Antarctic Peninsula retreated at rates faster than 25 m yr−1 (the typical pace since the Last Glacial Maximum) and the continent has lost 1,463 km2 ± 791 km2 of grounded-ice area.”

    Panic time: a tiny 0.01% of Antarctica, resting on volcanoes, melts five times faster than nothing
    By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Apr 5, 2018…

    Antarctic Temperature Data Contradict Global Warming…”Much Warmer” 105 Years Ago!
    By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 3, 2018…

    NASA renews focus on Earth’s frozen regions
    By Patrick Lynch, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Mar 26, 2018 [H/t Toshio Fujita]…
    “NASA is also involved in an international effort called the High Mountain Asia Project, which seeks to understand how climate change is affecting glaciers in the Himalayas and water resources for more than 1 billion people in the region.”

    Snow Cover, Ice Volume Growth Show Global Climate Is A Lot More Than Just “Surface Temperature”
    By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 30, 2018…

    Changing Earth

    Earth’s stable temperature past suggests other planets could also sustain life
    By Hannah Hickey, UW News, Apr 2, 2018 [H/t GWPF]…

    Link to paper: Constraining the climate and ocean pH of the early Earth with a geological carbon cycle model
    By Joshua Krissansen-Totton, Giada N. Arney and David C. Catling, PNAS, Apr 2, 2018…

    New study finds world’s largest desert, the Sahara, has grown by 10 percent since 1920
    Research is the first to assess century-scale changes to the Sahara’s boundaries
    By Cheryl Dybas, NSF, Mar 29, 2018….
    “The results suggest that human-caused climate change, as well as natural climate cycles, caused the desert’s expansion. The geographic pattern of expansion varied from season to season, with the largest differences along the Sahara’s northern and southern boundaries.”
    [SEPP Comment: The Sahara has been expanding for thousands of years, a clear example of human cause?]

    Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine

    Wheat in heat: the ‘crazy idea’ that could combat food insecurity
    By Mark Hillsdon, The Guardian, Mar 23, 2018 [H/t GWPF]…

    How Big Water Projects Helped Trigger Africa’s Migrant Crisis
    By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 1, 2018

    Lake Chad Might Be Shrinking, But It Has Nothing To Do With Climate Change
    By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 1, 2018

    During The 800s-1300s AD, Wine Grapes Were Grown At Latitudes Where Polar Bears Now Roam
    By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Apr 2, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: The influence of the Gulf Stream is remarkable.]

    Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?

    Gallup: Left Became More Militant About Global Warming Under Trump
    By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 28, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: At least the questions were on global warming, rather than climate change.]

    Questioning European Green

    Fracking, BREXIT and an oil and gas shale bonanza
    By Gary Busch, Lima Charlie News, Apr 4, 2018…

    Policies Are to Blame for Rising UK Electricity Prices
    By John Constable, GWPF, Apr 2, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: An increase in “policy costs” of 11% in one year? Wasn’t the purpose of the Climate Change Act of 2008 to save money?]

    UK Lemmings Charge To The Front!
    By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 6, 2018

    A Nomination For The Biggest April Fool: Germany!
    By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Apr 1, 2018…

    Germany’s Energiewende predicament
    By Roger Andrews, Energy Matters, Apr 3, 2018…

    Litigation Issues

    The Children’s Crusade (Lawsuit) Against Climate Change
    Guest essay by Dale Leuck, WUWT, Mar 31, 2018…
    “… 54-page November 10, 2016 decision by U.S. District Court Judge Ann Aiken denying the defendant’s motion to dismiss. [The judge stated:] “…the right to a climate system capable of sustaining human life is fundamental to a free and ordered society (pp.32)…just as marriage is the foundation of the family (pp.32).” Aiken agreed that “…inactions of the government…have ‘so profoundly damaged our home planet that they threaten plaintiff’s fundamental constitutional rights to life and liberty”.

    Litigation Issues — California

    Climate plaintiffs amend suit after judge scolds them on ‘smoking gun’ memo that wasn’t
    By Daniel Fisher, Legal News Line, Apr 5, 2018 [H/t WSJ]…

    City of Oakland and the People of California v. BP P.L.C.
    First Amended Complaint for Public Nuisance, US District Court, Northern California, San Francisco, Apr 3, 2018…

    Climate chaos claims continue causing consternation
    Guest essay by Paul Driessen, WUWT, Mar 31, 2018…

    Investors stunned over oil producer’s climate-change exemption
    By Amy Harder, Axios, Apr 2, 2018…

    Fossil Fuels Under Fire
    By H. Sterling Burnett, Climate Change Weekly # 282, Apr 3, 2018…

    Climate Change Movement Retreats to California Courts
    By Richard O. Faulk, Real Clear Politics, Mar 30, 2018…

    Climate Change Trial Starts on Rough Footing for Environmentalists
    By Haris Alic, Washington Free Beacon, Apr 2, 2018…

    EPA and other Regulators on the March

    Pruitt Allies Warn Trump — Fire Him And Your Agenda Comes To A Grinding Halt
    By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Apr 5, 2018 [H/t Cooler Heads]…

    Energy Issues – Non-US

    India is now the world’s third-largest electricity producer
    By Susma UN, Quartz India, Mar 26, 2018…
    “Over the last five years, India put up 99.21 GW of additional capacity. Of this, 91.73 GW came from thermal sources, 5.48 GW from hydro, and 2 GW from nuclear sources.”
    [SEPP Comment: If the numbers are correct 0%came from wind and solar.]

    Claim: Your wood stove affects the climate more than you might think
    By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Apr 3, 2018…
    Link to paper: Cooling aerosols and changes in albedo counteract warming from CO2 and black carbon from forest bioenergy in Norway
    By Anders Arvesen, et al, Nature, Feb 19, 2018…

    Why China’s winter fuel crisis is a cold, hard lesson in the law of unintended consequences
    As officials raced to fulfil a central government decree to cut coal use, the impact on gas supplies appears to have been overlooked
    By Viola Zhou, South China Morning Post, Dec 19, 2017…
    [SEPP Comment: Residential heating with coal creates problems.]

    Energy Issues – Australia

    In a fake free market 2000MW = 1000MW and Liddell coal is worth more destroyed than sold
    By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Apr 6, 2018…

    Energy Issues — US

    Who’s Responsible for Keeping the Lights On?
    By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Apr 6, 2018…

    More on the Auction Fiasco
    By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Apr 3, 2018…

    Troubled FirstEnergy Companies Seek Bankruptcy Protection
    By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Apr 1, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: Apparently, it is consolidating into regulated markets.]

    FirstEnergy Solutions Files Deactivation Notice for Three Competitive Nuclear Generating Plants in Ohio and Pennsylvania
    By Staff Writers, PRN News, Mar 28, 2018 [H/t Toshio Fujita]…
    – 4,048 Megawatts of Electricity Generating Capacity to Retire by 2021
    – Plants to Continue Normal Operations in Interim
    – Company Seeks Policy Solutions as Alternative to Deactivation

    Energy Hogs: Can World’s Huge Data Centers Be Made More Efficient?
    The gigantic data centers that power the internet consume vast amounts of electricity and emit 3 percent of global CO2 emissions. To change that, data companies need to turn to clean energy sources and dramatically improve energy efficiency.
    By Fred Pearce, Yale Environment, Apr 3, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: And demand other consumers absorb the cost of maintenance of the grid.]

    Another Small Dose Of Realism On The Prospects For A 100% Renewable Grid
    By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Apr 4, 2018…

    On Energy Cost Trends (applying caution to the big talk of energy transformation)
    By Michael Lynch, Master Resource, Mar 29, 2018…

    Clean Power Plan
    Speakers square off in Wyoming over Clean Power Plan repeal during final of four meetings
    By Heather Richards, Casper Star Tribune (Wyoming), Apr 1, 2018…

    Washington’s Control of Energy

    US power sector carbon emissions intensity drops to lowest on record (because EPA forced coal power closure)
    By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Apr 4, 2018…

    Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?

    China owns world’s second largest shale gas field
    By Staff Writers, China Daily, Via GWPF, Apr 5, 2018…

    Exports of LNG
    U.S. liquefied natural gas exports quadrupled in 2017
    By Staff Writers, EIA, Mar 27, 2018…

    Shale Revolution 3.0: Bahrain Hits (Black) Gold with Biggest Shale Discovery in World
    By Staff Writers, The Times, Via GWPF, Apr 5, 2018…

    Return of King Coal?

    A new coal war frontier emerges as China and Japan compete for energy projects in Southeast Asia
    Frederick Kuo says Southeast Asia’s appetite for coal has spurred a new geopolitical rivalry between China and Japan as the two countries race to provide high-efficiency, low-emission technology
    By Frederick Kuo, South China Morning Post, Apr 1, 2018 [H/t GWPF]…

    Nuclear Energy and Fears

    Should Nuclear Energy Be a U.S. National Security Concern?
    By Erin Mundahl, Inside Sources, Mar 29, 2018…

    Minnesota May Be Next to Support Nuclear Plants
    By Aaron Larson, Power Mag. Mar 29, 2018…

    Nuclear and coal energy company files for bankruptcy
    By Miranda Green, The Hill, Apr 2, 2018…

    Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind

    Relying on renewables alone significantly inflates the cost of overhauling energy
    Evidence points to the need for a broader range of clean power beyond just wind and solar.
    By James Temple, MIT Technology Review, Feb 26, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: With typical propaganda photo and misleading caption: “A solar farm in Hughsville, Maryland supplies enough electricity for 600 homes.” How many hours a day?]

    OVO’s Fake Renewable Claims
    By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 4, 2018
    “Even if you’re paying for 100% renewable electricity, no supplier can guarantee that the electricity coming into your home is from a renewable source.”

    The Road To Hell Is Paved With Solar Panels – “Solar Road” fails miserably
    $4.5 million project generates just $36.86 worth of electricity so far
    Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, Apr 4, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: Solar roads, parking lots, etc. do not have much value, except to gullible politicians.]

    Energy & Environmental Newsletter: April 2, 2018
    By John Droz, Master Resource, Apr 2, 2018…

    Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other

    Want to Use the Earth to Heat Your Home? Investors Try to Help
    By Chris Martin, Bloomberg Technology, Mar 27, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: Residential geothermal makes sense in some regions.]

    California Dreaming

    Trump admin sues California over state bill on land rights
    By Miranda Green, The Hill, Apr 2, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: Can a state control the federal lands in its jurisdiction? If so, many federal monuments, wilderness areas, parks, leases for mineral extraction, etc. will be modified.]

    Health, Energy, and Climate

    Junk Science Journalism: “Lyme disease the first epidemic of climate change.”
    Guest ridiculing by David Middleton, WUWT, Apr 3, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: A new Stockholm syndrome, or the revenge of the mummy? Lyme disease is common in southern Sweden and was first described over 100 years ago. Apparently, it was found in a 5300-year old mummy. See below.]

    History of Lyme Disease
    By Staff Writers, Bay Area Lyme Foundation, Accessed Apr 3, 2018…

    Oh Mann!

    Mann and Lewandowsky’s polar bear paper enters bizzaroland: Climate change leads to more…neurosurgery for polar bears?
    By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Apr 3, 2018…

    Other Scientific News

    Is there life adrift in the clouds of Venus?
    By Terry Devitt for UW News, Space Daily Madison WI (SPX) Apr 03, 2018 [H/t Toshio Fujita]…
    [SEPP Comment: It’s the atmospheric pressure at the surface that makes the planet too hot, not CO2.]

    What Ancient African Huts Reveal About Earth’s Magnetic Flips
    Minerals in clays from the Iron Age may help scientists better understand how and why the magnetic poles swap places.
    By Michael Greshko, National Geographic, Mar 5, 2018 [H/t Howard Hayden]…
    Link to paper: New Archeomagnetic Directional Records From Iron Age Southern Africa (ca. 425–1550 CE) and Implications for the South Atlantic Anomaly
    By Vincent Hare, et al. Geophysical Research Letters, Feb 15, 2018

    Other News that May Be of Interest

    How a New Source of Water Is Helping Reduce Conflict in the Middle East
    Scientists and others look to desalination as a way to unite longtime adversaries in a common cause.
    By Rowan Jacobsen, ENSIA, July 19, 2016…

    Nation’s Largest Seawater Desalination Plant Marks One-Year Anniversary
    Press Release, Claud “Bud” Lewis Carlsbad Desalination Plant, Dec 14, 2016…
    “The Carlsbad plant uses reverse osmosis to produce a highly reliable supply, day-in and day-out, regardless of weather or climate conditions, and it is blended with water from other sources for regional distribution. It costs about a half-cent to produce a gallon of drinking water at the plant. Desalinated water costs typical homeowners in the region about an additional $5 per month, in line with the low end of projections when the project was approved in late 2012.”

    New runway construction begins at Maldives international airport
    By Staff Writers, Maldives Independent, Mar 15, 2018 [H/t Paul Homewood]…
    “The 3,400-meter-long, 60-meter-wide runway will open the airport to the Airbus A380 jetliner, the world’s largest passenger airline, Adil previously said.”
    [SEPP Comment: Will they hold underwater cabinet meetings on the runway?]

    By Staff Writers, Climate Change March 29, 2018…
    “An environmental expert in St Andrews has warned the year 2050 could see the town’s famous golf course, the Old Course, crumble into the North Sea. Professor Jan Bebbington, director of the St Andrews Sustainability Institute, has visualised the effect of climate change on Scotland in 50 years.” BBC News, 13 Oct 2008

    Cliches not threatened
    By Staff Writers, Climate Change March 31, 2018…
    “A study published in the June 10 issue of the journal Nature clearly demonstrates changes in species ranges as butterflies shift north to track a changing climate as the planet warms up.
    “Camille Parmesan, Ph D., and her co-investigators found that out of 57 species studied in Europe and North Africa, 35 of which there were data for both the northern and southern range boundaries, two thirds had shifted northward. Most of the remaining one third remained stable.
    “’This puts the nail in the coffin,’ said Parmesan of the results. ‘It’s black and white’.”
    University of California, Santa Barbara, 10/6/99

    1. Coffee Won’t Kill You, But CAFE Might
    While these downsized cars are more fuel-efficient, they are also less crashworthy.
    By Sam Kazman, WSJ, Apr 4, 2018…

    The general counsel of CEI argues against federal government corporate average fuel economy (CAFÉ) standards because people are being killed. He writes:

    “On Monday EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt announced he is re-examining the stringent standards set by the Obama administration in 2012. This might finally bring some honesty to the issue of CAFE’s lethal effects and push the safety issue to the forefront of the debate over government efficiency mandates. Or it might not.

    “To call it a coverup isn’t hyperbole. CAFE kills people by causing cars to be made smaller and lighter. While these downsized cars are more fuel-efficient, they are also less crashworthy. In 1992 in Competitive Enterprise Institute v. NHTSA, a lawsuit my organization brought with Consumer Alert, a federal appeals court ruled that the agency had “obscured the safety problem” through a combination of “fudged analysis,” “statistical legerdemain” and “bureaucratic mumbo-jumbo.” In the court’s view, nothing in the record “appears to undermine the inference that the 27.5 mpg standard kills people.”

    “How many people? A 1989 Harvard-Brookings study estimated the death toll at between 2,200 and 3,900 a year. Similarly, a 2002 National Academy of Sciences study estimated that CAFE had contributed to up to 2,600 fatalities in 1993. This was at a relatively lenient CAFE level of 27.5 miles per gallon. Under what the Obama administration had in store, CAFE would soon approach levels twice as stringent.

    “These inconvenient truths should have led the government to change its approach to CAFE. At least the standards didn’t get worse for about a decade throughout the 1990s, despite environmentalist demands for a stricter—and therefore more lethal—approach. But then CAFE was swept up in climate-change politics.

    “Advocates of stringent standards claim that automotive technologies have advanced since that 1992 court ruling, making vehicle mass less significant. But the basic relationship between size and safety has not changed. The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, which closely monitors crashworthiness, still provides the same advice it has been giving for years: “Bigger, heavier vehicles are safer.”

    “CAFE advocates like Consumer Reports treat lighter cars as merely a question of comfort, not crashworthiness. Car makers and dealers may express concerns about safety in the abstract, but considerations of politics and marketing make them hesitant to discuss hard numbers.

    “In his announcement, Mr. Pruitt proved admirably blunt in characterizing the Obama CAFE standards as based on “politically charged expediency” and assumptions “that didn’t comport with reality.” Let’s hope he’ll be similarly candid about CAFE’s risks. A lethal program that’s been in effect for decades deserves one thing above all—an accounting.”

    2. ‘Meltdown’ Review: Flirting With Disaster
    Thanks to dense networks and the complacency of groupthink, small glitches can cascade into catastrophic failures. David A. Shaywitz reviews “Meltdown” by Chris Clearfield and András Tilcsik.
    By David A. Shaywitz, WSJ, Apr 2, 2018…

    SUMMARY: Clearfield and Tilcsik are, respectively, a business school professor and a former derivatives trader. They wrote about the failures at Three Mile Island and of capital firms using computer driven trading. The authors of the book state the failures stem from two variables:

    “The first is complexity: the extent to which a system is linear and observable (like an assembly line) or interconnected and largely invisible. The second is coupling: the degree to which a system possesses ‘slack’—allowance for the time and flexibility to manage problems. Our determination to increase complexity and wring out inefficiencies, the authors warn, moves us into a danger zone and set us up for calamity.”

    The reviewer continues:

    “Avoiding disasters requires more than just speaking up, of course. ‘Dissent makes no difference if no one listens,’ Messrs. Clearfield and Tilcsik remind us, but listening proves to be difficult. When your beliefs are challenged, the authors write, your body reacts as if you suddenly spotted a wild animal—’your heart beats faster and your blood pressure rises.’ This physiological response aligns with decades of psychological studies showing subjects adjusting their opinions to match the group.

    “Managers who overcome these instincts and encourage divergent opinions, the authors say, are more likely to avoid disaster. After a National Transportation Safety Board study of airplane crashes revealed that most happened when the more senior pilot was in command—generally because the less experienced officer was reluctant to point out any errors he observed—a new training program focused on changing hierarchical cockpit norms was launched and ultimately embraced by the industry.

    “Perhaps the most important lesson of ‘Meltdown’ is captured by a series of studies performed by Evan Apfelbaum and his colleagues at MIT. They found that, as much as we’re predisposed to agree with a group, our willingness to disagree increases dramatically if the group is diverse; deference dissipates. Homogeneity may facilitate ‘smooth, effortless interactions,’ according to the authors, but diversity drives better decisions.

    “Organizations can keep themselves honest by leveraging ‘strangers,’ individuals who understand enough to be relevant but are removed enough to see things differently. NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, for example, embeds designated outsiders—JPL engineers with an independent line of reporting—within teams to provide a fresh perspective and flag problems.

    “Despite occasionally having the feel of a business journal article that was extended against its will into a book-length text, ‘Meltdown’ effectively conveys why addressing systemic failures is both difficult and essential: difficult because it’s so much more comfortable to rely on gut instinct and trust familiar colleagues than to insist on structured approaches and solicit the views of others; essential because we are moving into the danger zone and need all the help we can get.”


    The Week That Was: 2018-03-24 (March 24, 2018) Brought to You by The Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

    Quote of the Week.
    “It is error only, and not truth, that shrinks from inquiry.” –Thomas Paine [H/t William Readdy]

    Number of the Week: Up 1.4%

    By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

    California Litigation, General: The public nuisance lawsuits by San Francisco and Oakland against oil companies continue to attract attention by those interested in carbon dioxide (CO2)-caused global warming. Global warming is now generalized into climate change, as promoted by John Holdren, President Obama’s science advisor. The change implies warming and cooling, although no one has advanced a credible hypothesis how carbon dioxide causes global cooling, other than by its absence.

    Previous TWTWs discussed the filings by the two San Francisco Bay cities in the case, which is now before the US District Court for the Northern California District. The judge has ordered the parties to give a tutorial answering eight specific questions. In addition, various parties have filed amicus curiae (friend of the court) briefs. Of particular interest for TWTW are two briefs: one filed on behalf of three distinguished physicists, Professors William Happer, Steven Koonin and Richard Lindzen; the second filed on behalf of Christopher Monckton, et al. This week, TWTW will discuss the brief by the three professors. It will discuss a minor, but valuable, criticism of the Monckton brief by Roy Spencer, and will discuss that brief more fully next week.

    Also, a slide show filed was by Chevron, on behalf of the defendants. That will be discussed briefly, emphasizing the strategy the oil companies appear to be taking. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

    Three Professors: In their filing, Professors Happer, Koonin and Lindzen (Three Profs) accept the data used by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and the Climate Science Special Report (CSSR) by the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP); and accept the evidence presented in the reports. However, they demonstrate the conclusions in the reports are not established, and, at best, premature. Some human caused-global warming skeptics may be disappointed by this approach because it ignores the fact that atmospheric data is far superior, and more direct, than the surface data used in the reports.

    But, from a legal standpoint, this may be a solid approach, because the Three Profs need not argue before a judge why satellite data is superior, or why global climate models are deficient. Instead, they assert:

    “Our overview of climate science is framed through four statements:

    “1. The climate is always changing; changes like those of the past half-century are common in the geologic record, driven by powerful natural phenomena
    2. Human influences on the climate are a small (1%) perturbation to natural energy flows
    3. It is not possible to tell how much of the modest recent warming can be ascribed to human influences
    4. There have been no detrimental changes observed in the most salient climate variables and today’s projections of future changes are highly uncertain.”
    To substantiate the first statement, the Three Profs state that, unfortunately, the common practice in climate science is to present graphs without uncertainty bars, which, when added, show significant uncertainties. Further, recent warmings have been marked by El Niño conditions; yet recent warming is similar to early 20th century warming. They also include the historic record and mention the last interglacial period (the Eemian) “when it was the 2C warmer than today and the sea level was 6 meters [20 feet] higher.”

    To substantiate the second statement the Three Profs use figures appearing in the CSSR on energy flow and radiative forcing (Figs 2.1 & 2.3).

    To substantiate the third statement the Three Profs go into a bit of detail in building global climate models, bring up use of sub-grid-scale parameters. They state:

    “While these subgrid-scale parametrizations can be based upon observations of weather phenomena, there is still considerable judgment in their formulation. So the models are not, as one often hears, ‘just physics’ since the parameters in each must be ‘tuned’ to reproduce aspects of the observed climate.”

    They assert another major difficulty in the model development, which Fred Singer and others have called circular reasoning.

    “A second major problem is that there is no unique tuning that reproduces the historical climate data. Since aerosol cooling plays against GHG warming, a model with low aerosol and GHG sensitivities can reproduce the data as well as a model with high sensitivities. As a result, the GHG sensitivity is today uncertain by a factor of three (as it has been for forty years), therefore enlarging the uncertainty in any projection of future climates.” The IPCC and others have defended this faulty reasoning. To express the problem in algebra, the equation X minus Y equals 3 has an infinite number of solutions, if the relationship between X and Y is maintained. Both terms can be extremely large or extremely small. If one is to use models to estimate the value for greenhouse gases (GHG), one must independently establish the value for aerosols, which the climate modelers have failed to do.

    Further, the Three Profs state:

    “A third problem is that the models must reproduce the natural variabilities of the climate system, which we’ve seen are comparable to the claimed anthropogenic changes. Climate data clearly show coherent behaviors on multi-annual, multi-decadal, and multi-centennial timescales, at least some of which are due to changes in ocean currents and the interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere. Not knowing the state of the ocean decades or centuries ago makes it difficult to correctly choose the model’s starting point. And even if that were possible, there is no guarantee that the model will show the correct variability at the correct times.”

    Establishing the starting point for the human influence on the earth’s climate dominated by two fluids with changing exposure to a changing sun, and with other external influences, is a herculean task. The claim that the starting point is the start of the industrial revolution, or the start of a network of instrument measurement (US 1880s) is not sufficient.

    To substantiate their fourth statement, the Three Profs use the low confidence the IPCC assigns to understanding weather events since 1951 including floods, droughts, severe weather events, cyclones, etc. One does not create certainty by compounding uncertainty. The Three Profs specifically discuss heat waves, sea level rise, and tropical cyclones. They conclude with:

    “To summarize this overview, the historical and geological record suggests recent changes in the climate over the past century are within the bounds of natural variability. Human influences on the climate (largely the accumulation of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion) are a physically small (1%) effect on a complex, chaotic, multicomponent and multiscale system. Unfortunately, the data and our understanding are insufficient to usefully quantify the climate’s response to human influences. However, even as human influences have quadrupled since 1950, severe weather phenomena and sea level rise show no significant trends attributable to them. Projections of future climate and weather events rely on models demonstrably unfit for the purpose. As a result, rising levels of CO2 do not obviously pose an immediate, let alone imminent, threat to the earth’s climate.”

    After this, the Three Profs follow with answers to the eight questions. It will be interesting to learn how the judge will address this amicus brief. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

    Spencer – Use Clear Terminology: For years, meteorologist William Kininmonth of Australia has asserted that incorrect terminology is being used by the IPCC, which leads to vague or sloppy thinking. The issue of carbon dioxide-caused warming should be studied from the perspective of energy flows through the atmosphere. In assessing the amicus brief of Christopher Monckton, et al., Roy Spencer suggests the terms “feedback” and “forcing” are vague and poorly understood. They are not needed for describing the climate system or for modeling that system. The issue is energy flows: is the system in energy equilibrium?

    Spencer asserts:

    “…How modern 3D coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models work does not depend upon the feedback concept.

    “What they DO depend upon is energy conservation: If the system is in energy equilibrium, its average temperature will not change (that’s not precisely true, because it makes little sense energetically to average the temperature of all ocean water with the atmosphere, and there can be energy exchanges between these two reservoirs which have vastly different heat capacities. Chris Essex has written on this). The point is that the total heat content of the system in Joules stays the same unless an energy imbalance occurs. (Temperature is focused on so intensely because it determines the rate at which the Earth sheds energy to outer space. Temperature stabilizes the climate system.)”

    The climate models are essentially weather models, stabilized to run 100-year projections.

    “Nowhere do the IPCC models invoke, use, assume, or otherwise depend upon any feedback equations. Those equations are just greatly simplified approximations that allow us to discuss how the climate system responds to an imposed energy imbalance. If somebody has published a paper that incorrectly explains the climate system with a feedback equation, that does not invalidate the models.” [Boldface added]

    “Feedbacks in the IPCC models are diagnosed after the model is run; they are not specified before it is run.”

    Embodied in Spencer’s comments is the issue of starting point, discussed by the Three Profs (see above). According to NASA-GISS, from ice core data, CO2 levels increased from 285 parts per million (ppm) in 1850 to 311 ppm in 1950, or by 26 ppm over the 100 years. Yet, there were

    pronounced warming periods such as 1910 to 1940 like the late 20th century warming, even though CO2 increased by 11 ppm, compared with an increase of over 90 ppm from 1950 to today. (Note, there was a modest cooling from 1940 to about 1975, even though CO2 increased by 21 ppm.) There appears to be no strong justification to accept any particular starting point. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and…

    Oil Company Strategy? The filing by BP, et al. included two-part slide presentation for the Tutorial and another slide for a timeline of major developments in climate science. Some journalists reported that the oil companies were accepting the assertions of the IPCC. Skeptics may be disappointed by the presentation.

    The presentation was divided into three parts citing the Notice:

    “The first part will trace the history of scientific study of climate change, beginning with scientific inquiry into the formation and melting of the ice ages, periods of historical cooling and warming, smog, ozone, nuclear winter, volcanoes, and global warming.” This part included the covers of major reports by the IPCC and the USGCRP, a 1965 quote from President Lyndon Johnson that humans are changing the composition of the atmosphere, and the growth in publications on climate science and climate change. It included the early science of the greenhouse effect by Jean-Baptiste Joseph Fourier (1766-1830) as well as growth in climate modeling.

    “The second part will set forth the best science now available on global warming, glacier melt, sea rise, and coastal flooding.” It presented slides on temperature variations, glacier melt, sea level rise, CO2 emissions, the spaghetti maze of climate model projections and a warning of dire sea level rise in San Francisco Bay Area. This part concluded with two slides:

    “San Francisco Bond Disclosures (2017)”
    “The City is unable to predict whether sea-level rise or other impacts of climate change or flooding from a major storm will occur, when they may occur, and if any such events occur, whether they will have a material adverse effect on the business operations or financial condition of the City and the local economy.”

    Oakland Bond Disclosures (2017)
    “The City is unable to predict when seismic events, fires or other natural events, such as sea rise or other impacts of climate change or flooding from a major storm, could occur, when they may occur, and, if any such events occur, whether they will have a material adverse effect on the business operations or financial condition of the City or the local economy.”

    The presentation concluded with a Timeline of Climate Change Science showing that the greenhouse effect has long been known. The time line showed the IPCC AR5 and 2014 USGCRP report were followed by the municipal bond disclosures cited above.

    The federal courts may improperly defer to government agencies on issues of science. But, as discussed in February 24 TWTW, attorney Richard Epstein asserts they take fiduciary responsibilities seriously on issues regarding selling bonds to the public.

    It is interesting to speculate on the comfort-level the bond counsels and the bond holders have with the current litigation. See links under Litigation Issues – California Cities v. Oil Companies.

    Repeal Endangerment Finding: The group known as the Concerned Household Electricity Consumers Council (CHECC) submitted a proposal to the EPA in response to EPA’s request for comments on its rule making for replacing the Obama Administration’s Power Plan. CHECC repeated its petition to reconsider and repeal the Endangerment Finding. EPA veteran Alan Carlin summarizes the press release by CHECC. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

    Externalities: In his blog, Energy Matters, energy analyst Euan Mearns is examining the external costs and benefits of various forms of generating electricity. He states:

    “The economics term externality is a cost or benefit accrued by a third party from the actions of others where the third party did not choose to acquire said costs or benefits. The term has been widely adopted by the environmental lobby to describe negative impacts of energy production systems. What is all too often overlooked are the externalised benefits the same energy production systems provide. This post aims to summarise both internal and external costs and benefits of 12 electricity production systems employing 12 different measures.”

    It is under this concept that economist Nicholas Stern calculated enormous, speculative costs to the British public from carbon dioxide emissions, promoting the passage of the UK Climate Change Act of 2008. As usual, politicians and economists do not pay for their mistakes.

    It appears that Mearns is making a rigorous effort to measure costs and benefits of 12 electricity generating systems using 12 metrics to measure them. One metric that appears to be missing is the external benefits of increased carbon dioxide. As the NIPCC reports and CO2 Science show, agriculture, the environment, and humanity are greatly benefiting from increasing CO2. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy – NIPCC, Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science, and Energy Issues – Non-US

    Neo-Colonialism? Writing in Master Resource, Environmental Scientist Vijay Jayaraj explains his views why developing countries do not object to the Paris agreement, and the weak science on which it is based. It is for fear of damaging trade with the EU, which stipulates it will not ratify trade pacts with any country that does not ratify the Paris agreement. This is similar to what occurred after the US banned DDT, and efforts were made to ban it world-wide. Millions died of preventable malaria. See link under After Paris!

    Number of the Week: Up 1.4%. According to the International Energy Agency, CO2 emissions rose 1.4% in 2017, after being flat for three years. See links under Problems in the Orthodoxy.


    Science: Is the Sun Rising?

    The Worsening Cosmic Ray Situation
    By Tony Phillips, Space Weather Archive, Mar 5, 2018…

    Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?

    Extreme winter weather, such as ‘Beast from the East’, can be linked to solar cycle
    Press Release by University of Exeter,, Mar 20, 2018 [H/t GWPF]…
    Link to paper: Solar cyclic variability can modulate winter Arctic climate
    By Indrani Roy, Nature, Scientific Reports, Mar 20, 2018…
    From the abstract: It is hypothesized that the reduction of ice in the Arctic and a growth in Eurasia, in recent winters may, in part, be a result of the current weaker solar cycle.
    [SEPP Comment: Based on one “weak” solar cycle. It will be interesting to see what happens with a series of weak solar cycles.]

    As an historic solar minimum approaches, space radiation becoming more hazardous
    By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 17, 2018…
    Link to paper: Update on the worsening particle radiation environment observed by CRaTER and implications for future human deep‐space exploration*
    By N.A. Schwadron, et al. Space Weather, Feb 22, 2018

    Approaching ‘grand solar minimum’ could cause global cooling
    By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 18, 2018…

    New solar sensor will help monitor sun-to-climate link with greater accuracy
    By Anthon Watts, WUWT, Mar 16, 2018…

    Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

    Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
    Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2013…

    Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
    Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2014…

    Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
    The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
    By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, NIPCC, Nov 23, 2015
    Download with no charge…

    Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
    S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008…

    Challenging the Orthodoxy

    Prominent U.S. Scientists Submit Brief in Climate Science Court Hearing
    By Staff Writers, Climate Depot, Via GWPF, Mar 21, 2018…
    Legal submission by Happer, Koonin, and Lindzen in
    The People of the State of California, v. B.P. P.L.C., et al., US District Court, Northern District of California, Filed Mar 19, 2018

    Global warming on trial and the elementary error of physics that caused the global warming scare
    By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, WUWT, Mar 19, 2018…

    Climate F-Words
    By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Mar 22, 2018…

    Lord Monckton Responds
    By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Mar 23, 2018…

    Why CHECC Believes It is Essential to Repeal the EF, Not Replace the CPP
    By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, Mar 19, 2018…

    Repeal and Not Replace the Clean Power Plan (CPP)
    By Staff Writers, ICECAP, Mar 19, 2018…

    Overheated: How Flawed Analyses Overestimate the Costs of Climate Change
    By Oren Cass, Manhattan Institute, Mar 11, 2018…

    Defending the Orthodoxy

    Portugal: Nobel Prize winner paints grim picture of climate change future
    By Staff Writers, Macau News Agency, Mar 20, 2018 [H/t Dennis Ambler]…

    Climate science 30 years later. What’s changed?
    By Chelsea Harvey, E&E New, Mar 16, 2018…
    “South Korean economist Hoesung Lee has been chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change since 2015.”

    Climate scientist Ben Santer battles ‘trickle down ignorance’
    How Lawrence Livermore lab research refutes Trump Administration’s claims
    By Lisa Krieger, The Mercury News, Mar 17, 2018 [H/t Howard Hayden]…
    [SEPP Comment: Trickle-down ignorance from the IPCC?]

    Questioning the Orthodoxy

    200 Non-Hockey Stick Graphs Published Since 2017 Invalidate Claims Of Unprecedented, Global-Scale Warming
    By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Mar 22, 2018…

    On Climate Change, Please Address the Science, Not the Politics
    By Tim Ball and Tom Harris, PJ Media, Mar 15, 2018…

    Climate Sooks Can Stop Whimpering
    By David Archibald, Quadrant, Mar 21, 2018…

    Claim: Natural Variability will Dominate Until 2074
    Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Mar 20, 2018…
    Link to paper: Early emergence of anthropogenically forced heat waves in the western United States and Great Lakes
    By Hosmay Lopez, et al, Nature Climate Change, Mar 19, 2018…
    From the abstract: We show that ACC (anthropogenic climate change) dominates heat-wave occurrence over the western United States and Great Lakes regions, with ToE (time of emergence) that occurred as early as the 2020s and 2030s, respectively. In contrast, internal variability governs heat waves in the northern and southern Great Plains, where ToE occurs in the 2050s and 2070s; this later ToE is believed to be a result of a projected increase in circulation variability, namely the Great Plain low-level jet. Thus, greater mitigation and adaptation efforts are needed in the Great Lakes and western United States regions.
    [SEPP Comment: What happened to global? Some years ago, global models were considered unsuitable for regional forecasting. Are they now suitable for both global and regional?]

    Global Warming: The Evolution of a Hoax
    By Dale Leuck, American Thinker, Mar 21, 2018…

    Burn, Climate Witches, Burn
    By Peter Rees, Quadrant, Mar 24, 2018…

    Deceptive language ruins Earth Hour
    What we really need is Energy Hour
    By Tom Harris, Net News Ledger, Mar 23, 2018…

    Maybe Earth’s future isn’t so bad after all
    Book Review by Anthony Sadar, The Washington Times, Mar 20, 2018…
    Review of “It’s Better Than It Looks: Reasons for Optimism In an Age of Fear” By Gregg Easterbrook

    After Paris!

    Chennai, India’s Cold Winter vs. Global Warming Hype
    By Vijay Jayaraj, Master Resource, March 21, 2018…

    John Stossel: Pompeo, Trump and the Paris climate agreement
    By John Stossel, Fox News, Mar 21, 2018…

    Change in US Administrations

    Scott Pruitt Will End EPA’s Use Of ‘Secret Science’ To Justify Regulations
    By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Mar 19, 2018…
    Link to report: 2017 Draft Report to Congress on the Benefits and Costs of Federal Regulations and Agency Compliance with the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act
    By Staff Writers, OMB, 2017…

    Pruitt to restrict the use of data to craft EPA regulations
    By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Mar 20, 2018…

    Pruitt is expected to restrict science. Here’s what it means
    By Scott Waldman and Robin Bravender, E&E News, Mar 16, 2018…

    Is EPA’s Scott Pruitt Planning A Final Blow To Obama’s Climate Agenda?
    By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Mar 20, 2018…

    Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide

    Good news is gradual, bad news sudden
    By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, Mar 18, 2018…
    “The United Nations’ Millennium Development goal of halving global poverty by 2015 was met five years early.”
    [SEPP Comment: In a large part thanks to fossil fuels.]

    Problems in the Orthodoxy

    Global Emissions Up 1.4% In 2017
    By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 23, 2018
    Link to report: Global Energy & CO2 Status Report, 2017
    By Staff Writers, IEA, March 2018…

    Seeking a Common Ground

    Kathleen Harnett White: ‘Social Justice’ Energy for the Masses (Part III)
    By Robert Bradley, Jr. Master Resource, Mar 20, 2018…

    New paper tries to disentangle global warming from natural ocean variations
    By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 15, 2018…
    Link to paper: Disentangling Global Warming, Multidecadal Variability, and El Niño in Pacific Temperatures
    By Robert C. Wills, Tapio Schneider, John M. Wallace, David S. Battisti, Dennis L. Hartmann, Geophysical Research Letters, Mar 15, 2018

    Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science

    Ocean Acidification Does Not Compromise the Ability of Fish to Cope with High Temperatures
    Clark, T.D., Roche, D.G., Binning, S.A., Speers-Roesch, B. and Sundin, J. 2017. Maximum thermal limits of coral reef damselfishes are size dependent and resilient to near-future ocean acidification. Journal of Experimental Biology 220: 3519-3526. Mar 23, 2018…
    [Testing the statement:] …”theoretical models predict that ocean acidification, caused by increased dissolved CO2, will reduce the maximum thermal limits of fishes, thereby increasing their vulnerability to rising ocean temperatures and transient heatwaves.”

    Elevated CO2 Stimulates Growth, Seed Yield and N Uptake in Sunflower
    Lakshmi, N.J., Vanaja, M., Yadav, S.K., Maheswari, M., Archana, G., Patil, A and Srinivasarao, C. 2017. Effect of CO2 on growth, seed yield and nitrogen uptake in sunflower. Journal of Agrometeorology 19: 195-199. Mar 23, 2018…
    “All things considered, therefore, it would appear that those who grow and those who consume sunflower products will reap significant benefits from the CO2-induced enhancements documented here, as the air’s CO2 content continues to rise in the future.”

    35 Years of NDVI Increase in Nepal
    Krakauer, N.Y., Lakhankar, T. and Anadón, J.D. 2017. Mapping and attributing Normalized Difference Vegetation Index trends for Nepal. Remote Sensing 9: 986, doi:10.3390/rs9100986. Mar 19, 2018…

    Models v. Observations

    Mystery solved: Rain means satellite and surface temps are different. Climate models didn’t predict this…
    By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 18, 2018…
    “There are real and significant differences between near surface and lower-troposphere temperatures. The Australia-wide temperature and rainfall data are a clear demonstration of the interaction between temperature and rainfall.”

    1988 Congressional climate change hearing: claims of accelerating sea level rise – failed
    Guest essay by Larry Hamlin, WUWT, Mar 14, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: Featuring Jim Hansen of NASA-GISS and Michael Oppenheimer, then with the Environmental Defense Fund.]

    Model Issues

    Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity: Part I
    By Nic Lewis, Climate Etc. Mar 19, 2018…

    Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity in global climate models, Part 2
    The four constraints that Caldwell assessed as credible
    A guest post by Nic Lewis, Climate Audit, Mar 23, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: Second of three parts, links to the first part.]

    Measurement Issues — Surface

    Since 2008, 0.24°C Of ‘Extra’ Warming Has Been Added To NASA’s 1910-2000 Global Temperatures
    By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Mar 19, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: Unfortunately, NASA-GISS has the NASA name.]

    Uncertainty Mounts…Global Temperature Data Presentation “Flat Wrong”, New Danish Findings Show
    By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 23, 2018…
    Link to paper: Temperature trends with reduced impact of ocean air temperature
    By Frank Lansner, Jens Olaf Pepke Pedersen, Energy & Environment, Mar 21, 2018…
    From the abstract: “We find a lack of warming in the ocean air sheltered temperature data – with less impact of ocean temperature trends – after 1950.”

    Changing Weather

    SSW Event Was Widely Forecast In Early Feb
    By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 19, 2018
    [SEPP Comment: The Sudden Stratospheric Warming featured the splitting of the polar vortex, which has occurred before, though not frequently. Forecasting is difficult.]

    Are Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Rates Increasing?
    By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 23, 2018

    Paris Shivers In Coldest Consecutive Late March Days Since 1888
    By Mark Vogan, Mark Vogan, Mar 20, 2018 [H/t GWPF]…

    Changing Climate

    The phytoplankton decline, is there anything to it?
    By Andy May, WUWT, Mar 15, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: Lengthy post on a real cause of climate change.]

    Changing Seas

    NOAA — Straight Talk on Sea Level Rise
    Guest Essay by Kip Hansen, WUWT, Mar 20, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: Good explication of issues regarding sea level rise on the US Atlantic Coast. Those at NOAA responsible for data integrity in tidal gauges are to be thanked for keeping the clear statement: “The graphs compare the 95% confidence intervals of relative sea level trends. Trends with the narrowest confidence intervals are based on the longest data sets. Trends with the widest confidence intervals are based on only 30-40 years of data. The graphs give an indication of the differing rates of vertical land motion, given that the absolute global sea level rise is believed to be 1.7 +/- 0.3 millimeters/year during the 20th century.” No doubt, the responsible parties come under great bureaucratic pressure to produce alarming increases in sea level rise.]

    Sea level rise acceleration (or not). Part V: detection & attribution
    By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Mar 21, 2018…

    Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

    Arctic Ice Volume Growth Surprises As Solar Activity Approaches Near 200-Year Low
    By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 20, 2018…
    “Sea surface temperatures have since fallen back to near normal levels and it remains to be seen if a new higher plateau will be established [as] after the 1998 El Nino event. In summary, most of the globe is not behaving as climate scientists expected.”

    Eye-roller Claim: one year of Arctic data enough to proclaim ‘danger ahead’
    By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 20, 2018…
    Link to paper: Collapse of the 2017 winter Beaufort High: A response to thinning sea ice?
    By Moore, Schweiger, Zhang, and Steele, Geophysical Research Letters, Mar 19, 2018

    Lowering Standards

    By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Mar 23, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: Unfortunately, the EIA is developing vague concepts, without concrete meaning.]

    BBC’s Fake Climate Claims Now Becoming A Habit
    By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 22, 2018

    BBC Forced To Retract False Claim About Hurricanes
    By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 22, 2018

    Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?

    Saudi Arabia’s existential crisis returns as US shale booms anew
    By Staff Writers, Financial Times, Via GWPF, Mar 19, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: What is meant by the fad of terms using “existential” such as “existential crisis?” Is Saudi Arabia questioning the meaning of its existence?”

    Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.

    Burning Coal and the Permo-Triassic extinction
    By Roger Andrews, Energy Matters, Mar 21, 2018…
    “Having worked as a geologist I know that geologists are among the most imaginative of people when it comes to thinking up exotic theories. But the theory featured in the Guardian article in Blowout Week 220 – that CO2 and other noxious gases emitted from coal seams ignited by lava caused the Permo-Triassic (PT) extinction 250 million years ago, is among the most imaginative yet.”

    Fires destroy scores of homes in Tathra because we don’t have enough solar panels
    By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 23, 2018…

    Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?

    Climate study: top 20% of U.S. diet blamed for majority of greenhouse gas emissions
    By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 20, 2018…
    Link to paper: Greenhouse gas emissions and energy use associated with production of individual self-selected US diets
    By Martin C Heller, et al., Environmental Research Letters, Mar 20, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: Another shoddy poll which will be used to promote high carb, low fat diets?]

    Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.

    Interior Officials Are Citing Coal Execs And Crank Bloggers To Defend Climate Stances
    At the federal agency in charge of 20 percent of the U.S. landmass, blogs like “Watts Up With That” trump The New York Times.
    By Alexander C. Kaufman and Chris D’Angelo, Huff Post, Mar 10, 2018 [H/t Dennis Ambler]…

    Questioning European Green

    Green No More: Climate & Environment Only a Side Issue for Germany\s New Coalition – Report
    By Staff Writers, Clean Energy Wire, Mar 19, 2018 [H/t GWPF]…
    “The coalition agreement has been a “document of cowardice” as it scraps the 2020 climate target and postpones the coal exit indefinitely, and the parties’ protection of carmakers points in a similar direction, the authors [of an op-ed] say.”

    Germany’s War On Diesel Takes A Setback…Environment Ministry Activism Exposed, Absurd Risk Claims
    By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 17, 2018…

    Green Jobs

    Governor Cuomo Announces Formal Request for New York Exclusion From Federal Offshore Drilling Program
    Governor Also Announces $1.4 Billion in Awards for 26 Large-Scale Renewable Energy Projects, the Largest Single Commitment to Renewable Energy by a State in U.S. History
    By Staff Writers, New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, Mar 9, 2018…
    “In addition, offshore drilling endangers New York’s progressive efforts to move toward cleaner, smarter energy solutions, including the nation-leading $1.4 billion investment dedicated to renewable energy projects. The awarded projects include 22 solar farms, demonstrating that large-scale solar power is now economically viable across New York State for the first time. The projects are expected to generate enough clean, renewable energy to power more than 430,000 homes and reduce carbon emissions by more than 1.6 million metric tons, the equivalent to taking nearly 340,000 cars off the road.” [Boldface added]
    [SEPP Comment: Is the governor proposing to move New York to southwest Arizona? Snowload maps show the burden ranging from 45 to 85 pounds per square foot, with annual snowfalls ranging from 50 to 330 inches (120 to 850 cm). Will the snow affect the performance of large-scale solar power?]

    GOP governor’s bill would spend $1.4B on climate adaptation
    By Benjamin Storrow, E&E News, Mar 16, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: At least this $1.4 billion is not for building solar panels in the snowbelt.]

    Funding Issues

    Congress’ spending deal rejects Trump’s proposed EPA, energy cuts
    By Josh Siegel, Washington Examiner, Mar 21, 2018 [H/t Cooler Heads]…

    Spending bill includes major wildfire overhaul
    By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Mar 22, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: No mention of controlled burns, fire breaks, or controlling vegetation growth following wet winters in the West.]

    Litigation Issues

    Court lifts freeze on Bayou Bridge project
    By Ellen M. Gilmer, E&E News, Mar 16, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: Another effort to use the poorly written National Environmental Policy Act to stop development in Louisiana.]

    Litigation Issues – California Cities v. Oil Companies

    Response by Chevron Corporation
    California v. BP, et al. Mar 21, 2918 [The slide presentation.]…

    Chevron asks judge to toss lawsuits, unveils strategy
    By Anne C. Mulkern, E&E News, Mar 20, 2018…
    Link to Defendants’ Motion to Dismiss
    People of CA v. Oil Companies, Mar 20, 2018…
    “These actions should be dismissed because Plaintiffs have failed to state a claim for relief under federal common law. In addition, Plaintiffs’ claims are barred by the foreign affairs doctrine, the Commerce Clause, the Due Process Clause, and the First Amendment; because Plaintiffs have failed to sufficiently allege causation; and for other reasons set forth below.”

    Oil Giant Accepts Climate Consensus, Denies Responsibility for Warming
    Lawyers for Chevron in climate suit argue energy demand, not extraction, drives emissions
    By Debra Kahn, Scientific American, Mar 22, 2018 [H/t Cooler Heads]…

    Federal Judge Dismissed Claim Of A Conspiracy To Suppress Global Warming Science
    By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Mar 21, 2018 [H/t Cooler Heads]…

    Fossil fuels are the problem, say fossil fuel companies being sued
    By Nathanael Johnson, Grist, Mar 21, 2018…

    (Hot) Air Let Out of California’s Global Warming Lawsuit
    By William Briggs, The Stream, Mar 22, 2018…

    TABLES TURNED: Alarmists Now ‘Deny’ Climate Science While Big Oil Defends It
    By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Mar 21, 2018…

    Energy Issues – Non-US

    The Externalities of Energy Production Systems
    By Euan Mearns, Energy Matters, Mar 19, 2018…
    “The economics term externality is a cost or benefit accrued by a third party from the actions of others where the third party did not choose to acquire said costs or benefits. The term has been widely adopted by the environmental lobby to describe negative impacts of energy production systems. What is all too often overlooked are the externalised benefits the same energy production systems provide. This post aims to summarise both internal and external costs and benefits of 12 electricity production systems employing 12 different measures.”

    Brian Monteith: We must act now to keep the lights on or it might be too late
    By Brian Monteith, The Scotsman, Mar 19, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: Reviewing some of the Russian “investments in Green Power” – anti-fracking and other efforts.]

    Gas Demand Peaks In Winter
    By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 21, 2018
    “It seems we are no nearer solving the problem of how we heat our homes and at the same time meet decarbonisation targets.”

    Government scrutinises energy security amid Russia tensions
    By Jullian Ambrose, Telegraph, UK, Mar 17, 2018…

    Merkel Looks to LNG to Cut Germany’s Dependence on Russian Gas
    By Anna Shiryaevskaya and Brian Parkin, Bloomberg, Mar 19, 2018…

    We must turn off the Russian gas tap and get fracking
    By Harry Wilkinson, The Conservative Woman, UK, Mar 18, 2018…
    “The fantasy that we can rely on renewables to supply our energy needs has been trashed by the National Grid, which has now acknowledged that it is not feasible to switch to electric heating on the scale required to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 80 per cent of 1990 levels by the middle of this century.”

    Russia Says Its Gas Is Best Deal for Europe Amid U.K. Spat
    By Elena Mazneva and Annmarie Hordern, Bloomberg, Mar 19, 2018…

    The Shape I’m In – Why the Big Spread Between WCS and WTI Crudes Will Stick Around
    By Housley Carr, RBN Energy, Mar 20, 2018…

    Energy Issues – Australia

    [South] Australia’s Liberals win state election in blow for renewables lobby
    By Alison Bevege, Reuters, Mar 17, 2018 [H/t GWPF]…

    Energy Issues — US

    The United States exported more natural gas than it imported in 2017
    By Michael Mobilia, EIA, Mar 19, 2018…

    Brunswick Co. commissioners strike offshore drilling from agenda
    By Alex Guarino, Local News, North Carolinia, Mar 19, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: Decided not to vote on the issue pushed by Sierra Club, etc.]

    Coal Cuts Dangerously Clip Texas Power Capacity
    By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Mar 19, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: Lack of back-up to wind may cause problems.]

    Russia Agents Attempted to ‘Influence’ and ‘Directly Undermine’ U.S. Natural Gas, House Report Finds
    By Erin Mundahl, Inside Sources, Mar 16, 2018…

    Subsidies and Mandates Forever

    Scottish Power chief: You’re bonkers if you think we will build offshore wind ‘subsidy-free’
    By Brendan Coyne, The Energist, Mar 21, 2018…

    EPA and other Regulators on the March

    Energy Department Petitioned To Stop Making Dishwashers Even Crappier [Slower]
    By Tim Pearce, Daily Caller, Mar 22, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: The time required to do a load of dishes has increased from one hour to 2.5 hours, to save energy?]

    Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?

    Europe’s cold shoulder to Russian gas could lift US LNG export goals
    By Harry Weber and Ross Wyeno, Platts, Mar 19, 2018…

    Nuclear Energy and Fears

    Five reasons nuclear energy will rebound in 2018
    By Jarret Adams, WNN, Mar 7, 2018…

    Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind

    Chasing Sunbeams: Taming the Sun and Solar Energy
    By Norman Rogers, American Thinker, Mar 18, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: Putting a few hard numbers to the sunbeam dream.]

    Twenty-One Bad Things About Wind Energy — and Three Reasons Why
    By John Droz, Jr., Master Resource, March 22, 2018…
    “1 – Wind proponents are not asked to independently PROVE the merits of their claims before (or after) their product is forced on the public.
    2 – There is no penalty for making bogus assertions or dishonest claims about their product’s “benefits,” so each successive contention is more grandiose than the last.
    3 – Promoting wind is a political agenda that is divorced from real science. A true scientific assessment is a comprehensive, objective evaluation with transparent real world data – not on carefully massaged computer models and slick advertising campaigns, which are the mainstay of anti-science evangelists promoting political agendas.”

    Health, Energy, and Climate

    The Neglected Menace of Pollution
    By Philip Landrigan and Richard Fuller, Project Syndicate, Mar 20, 2018…
    Link to study: The Lancet Commission on pollution and health, Oct 19, 2017…
    Pollution is one of the great existential challenges of the twenty-first century. It threatens the stability of ecosystems, undermines economic development, and compromises the health of billions of people. Yet it is often overlooked, whether in countries’ growth strategies or in foreign-aid budgets, like those of the European Commission and the US Agency for International Development. As a result, the threat continues to grow.
    [SEPP Comment: Pollution has been a problem since the beginning of humanity and continues to be a problem in developing countries.]

    A side benefit of climate action: Saving millions of lives
    By Chelsea Harvey, E&E News, Mar 20, 2018…
    Link to paper: Quantified, localized health benefits of accelerated carbon dioxide emissions reductions
    By Shindell, Faluvegi, Seltzer & Shindell, Nature, Climate Change, Mar 19, 2018…
    Link to health reports: Air Pollution
    By Staff Writers, WHO, Accessed Mar 23, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: Further examples why the Supreme Court decision terming CO2 is a pollutant under the US Clean Air Act and can be regulated by the EPA is an international health disaster

    Oh Mann!

    Steve McIntyre discovers another hockey stick
    By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 20, 2018…

    Other News that May Be of Interest

    Dumping Is Bad
    By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Mar 20, 2018…

    How Tariffs Dampen the Energy Boom
    A trade war would prevent American manufacturers from taking advantage of abundant hydrocarbons.
    By Rupert Darwall, WSJ, Via GWPF, Mar 22, 2018…

    By Staff Writers, Climate Change, Mar 23, 2018…
    “In rural Tanzania, murders of elderly women accused of witchcraft are a very common form of homicide. And when Tanzania suffers unusual rainfall — either drought or flooding — witch-killings double, according to research by Edward Miguel, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley.
    “In bad years, the killings explode,’ Professor Miguel said. He believes that if climate change causes more drought years in Tanzania, the result will be more elderly women executed there and in other poor countries that still commonly attack supposed witches.”
    New York Times, 13 Apr 2008

    Penguins pining away
    By Staff Writers, Climate Change, Mar 19, 2018…
    “Penguins and post-El Niño stress disorder. It seems that Galápagos penguin may suffer from post-El Niño stress disorder.
    “After the strong El Niño events of 1982-83 and 1997-98 populations declined by more than 60%, according to F. Hernán Vargas of the University of Oxford and colleagues.
    “They also looked at what this means for the future of the species and found a 30% chance it will disappear entirely within 100 years, if El Niño events keep happening with the same frequency.
    “If, however, the frequency increases, as predicted by some climatologists, the risk becomes greater. A doubling of the strong events leads to an 80% of extinction within 100 years.”
    New Scientist, 31 Aug 2007

    1. How Pennsylvania Slashed Coal Emissions Without Alienating Industry
    New regulation gave power plants flexibility to cut smog-forming emission in half while remaining efficient
    By Kris Maher, WSJ, Mar 21, 2018…

    SUMMARY: The journalist writes:

    Coal-fired power plants in Pennsylvania cut smog-forming emissions by more than half last year, in a rare regulatory effort that has won support from both industry officials and environmentalists.

    Emissions of nitrogen oxides, or NOx, at the state’s six power plants that burn newly mined coal exclusively fell 60% last year from the year earlier to 23,133 tons.

    At the 50-year-old Keystone Generating Station in the rural southwestern part of the state, emissions of nitrogen oxides fell 54% to 6,095 tons last year from the prior year, even though the plant burned more coal in 2017.

    Industry experts credit a state regulation for the reductions. The rule, which took effect in January 2017, lowered the rate at which power plants and other sources can emit NOx. For power plants, it requires use of a potentially costly pollution control, in which ammonia is injected to reduce NOx, but only during times of high power usage, when the method is most cost-effective.

    Vince Brisini, director of environmental affairs at Olympus Power LLC, an owner of the big Keystone plant and another nearby coal-burning plant, said he hadn’t ever seen emissions fall so rapidly across a state. He also said the regulation provides enough flexibility for power plants to run cost-effectively.

    “This regulation will not force any coal-fired units to retire,” Mr. Brisini said.

    The article shows a chart that nitrogen oxides were highest in Pennsylvania among 7 upper mid-west states in 2014 and have dropped by more than two-thirds to be second to Illinois. Although the conversion from coal to natural gas helped, in part, the journalist states further:

    In Pennsylvania, a rule known as the Reasonably Available Control Technology II was implemented so that the state could meet the federal 2008 standard of 75 parts per billion of ozone within its own borders.

    The Pennsylvania rule requires power plants to operate existing pollution controls more often in a way that factors in the chemistry of electricity generation and allows the plants to continue to run efficiently, say industry officials.

    Under the rule, companies are operating at lower emissions rates at times of high demand, including on hot summer days when they are most likely to contribute to ozone, industry experts say. Before, companies were allowed to emit NOx at higher rates, and some had banked allowances enabling them to emit even more.

    “The beauty of the rule that Pennsylvania adopted is that it found a way to strike a balance,” said Dave Flannery, legal counsel for the Midwest Ozone Group. He said requiring the use of controls that use ammonia during periods of low demand, for example, would have increased costs dramatically. The association’s members include power generation and industrial companies.

    Of course, Northeastern states, which have eliminated coal-fired power plants and have high electricity costs complain Pennsylvania is not doing enough. The journalist concludes with a quote from Mr. Brisini:

    “’This rule was written to achieve the necessary environmental outcome,’ he said. ‘It was not written with the idea that you want to force people out of business.’”

    2. Fine-Tune Your B.S. Detector: You’ll Need It
    In the digital age, misinformation—from nonsense to lies—spreads faster than ever and is becoming an area of serious research
    By Elizabeth Bernstein, WSJ, Mar 19, 2018…

    “Do you have a good B.S. detector? You need one in our digital age.

    “The skill of spotting false information—rubbish, nonsense and, yes, fake news—is so important these days that scientists have begun serious research on it. They’re attempting to quantify when and why people spread it, who is susceptible to it, and how people can confront it.

    “This month in Atlanta, at the annual conference of the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, a group of psychologists and other scientists presented a symposium on their research. The title? “Bullshitting: Empirical and Experiential Examinations of a Pervasive Social Behavior.”

    “B.S. is a form of persuasion that aims to impress the listener while employing a blatant disregard for the truth, the researchers explained. It can involve language, statistics and charts and appears everywhere from politics to science. This definition closely adheres to the one presented by the philosopher and Princeton emeritus professor Harry Frankfurt in his now-classic 2005 book “On Bullshit.” Dr. Frankfurt explored how B.S. is different than lying because liars know the truth and push it aside while B.S.ers don’t necessarily care about the truth at all.

    “Of course this isn’t new. But false information moves faster and farther these days, thanks to social media. A new study conducted by researchers at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, published earlier this month in the journal Science, analyzed the spread of 126,000 rumors tweeted by 3 million people over more than 10 years and found that false news spreads faster than truth. “We have reached epidemic levels of information pollution, and we need to do something about it,” says Jevin West, a professor of information science at the University of Washington. Dr. West co-created a class launched last year at the university, “Calling Bullshit,” that teaches students how to spot and refute the way data, such as statistics and charts, can be manipulated to make false arguments. More than 60 schools have requested permission to use the materials to set up classes of their own, Dr. West says.

    “Some people spread false information unknowingly. But others simply don’t care if what they’re posting is untrue, Dr. West says, and pass along the information as a way to signal their views and values to their group. Philosophers call this tribal epistemology.

    “Website algorithms often favor salacious stories. (YouTube came under fire last month for the way its recommendation algorithm promotes conspiracy-theory videos aimed at viewers on both the left and the right.) And millions of bots—computer programs that can appear to be real people—also spread false information across the internet.

    After some discussion, the journalist provides some tips such as: Check the source. If it sounds to be too good to be true, it probably is; Ask questions; Ask for evidence; and Pay attention to people who discount evidence, a red flag.

    TWTW comment: The advice may apply for those wading through bureaucratic science as well.


    The Week That Was: 2018-03-17 (March 17, 2018)
    Brought to You by The Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

    Quote of the Week.
    “It is dangerous to be right in matters where men in authority are wrong.” – Voltaire [H/t Tim Ball]

    Number of the Week: 27.5 times in 10 years

    By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

    Group Think – Harm: Over the past few weeks, TWTW has discussed group-think, when adopted by government entities supposedly involved in science becomes Bureaucratic Science. TWTW discussed bureaucratic science at NASA, where NASA ignored important evidence of safety problems with the Space Shuttle, which led to the Challenger disaster, from joint failure, and the Columbia disaster, from shedding of insulation foam. Deliberate ignorance can be deadly.

    Unfortunately, Washington’s bureaucratic science has led to the preventable deaths of millions of people and the unnecessary suffering of hundreds of millions. Without hard evidence, EPA’s first administrator, William Ruckelshaus, banned DDT, claiming it may cause cancer. This ban became the springboard for a foreign policy attempting to ban DDT world-wide.

    This policy ignored the medical findings that periodic indoor spraying of huts with DDT was a very cost-effective way of controlling malaria, especially in tropical countries. After 50 years, a better method has not been developed. Estimates vary, but about 200,000 to 300,000 children die each year. There are very good reasons for restricting the use of persistent chemicals, but they do not justify US government policies leading to mass death and harm to humanity. With bureaucratic science, no one is accountable for harm done to humanity.

    The fear of carbon dioxide causing dire global warming is not based on hard evidence. It is based on speculation in the Charney report, published by the National Academy of Science in 1979, that the modest warming shown in over 100 years of laboratory experiments will be amplified by dire warming from increasing water vapor. This speculated water vapor warming has not been observed or demonstrated. However, dire warming, without hard evidence, has become part of the bureaucratic science of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP).

    The USGCRP submitted its draft of the Fourth National Assessment (NCA-4) to The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine for review. This would have been a perfect opportunity for the National Academies to revisit the Charney Report and update it with observations of atmospheric temperatures which did not exist at the time of the Charney Report. The atmospheric data contradict the speculation in the Charney Report. Entities using proper science procedures would revise the 1979 report.

    Based on a brief look of the Prepublication Copy, “The Committee to Review the Draft Fourth National Climate Assessment, “The Committee,” convened by the Nation Academies in November 2017, did nothing to upset the bureaucratic science so fully entrenched in Washington.



    TWTW will review the report by “The Committee” further to see if there is any hope that objective science, based on observations, has been added to the bureaucratic ritual. In so doing, TWTW will be conscious of the harm done by bureaucratic science in places such as Africa, where about 600 million people do not have access to reliable electrical power and are being denied funding for coal-fired power plants, based on false fears of carbon dioxide. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy, and Return of King Coal?

    Deliberate Ignorance: As Challenger disaster demonstrated, deliberate ignorance is characteristic of bureaucratic science. Evidence that contradicts policy must be ignored. The Global Warming Policy Forum posted an interview with Henrik Svensmark and his son Jacob. Henrik articulated the Svensmark hypothesis, that solar activity regulates, in part, cosmic rays hitting the earth’s atmosphere at high energy levels. These, in turn, cause cloudiness. Higher solar activity reduces cosmic ray impacts and thus reduces cloudiness. Although well tested, this hypothesis is largely ignored by the IPCC, the USGCRP, and the rest of the climate establishment.

    The major objection seems to be the lack of a significant effect during a solar cycle. However, due to the internal stability of the climate system, particularly from the oceans, we may not see the effects of cosmic ray fluctuations [does more cloudiness cause warming or cooling?] for several solar cycles. If the alarmists use the solar cycle to dismiss the Svensmark hypothesis, they have no logically consistent basis to claim “global warming” is hiding in the oceans. See links under Science: Is the Sun Rising?, Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?, and Below the Bottom Line.

    Eight Questions: Although The Heartland Institute published the NIPCC Reports, which were initiated by SEPP Chairman emeritus Fred Singer, SEPP is not a part of the Heartland organization. However, when preparing a response to the eight questions posed by the judge overseeing the public nuisance lawsuits of San Francisco and Oakland against oil companies, Jay Lehr of Heartland requested Ken Haapala to give brief comments.

    The questions, presented in last week’s TWTW, are at different levels of complexity, posing a problem of at what level of complexity and scientific education should one respond. The 2007 Supreme Court decision in Massachusetts v. EPA is useful. The court gave Massachusetts standing that the state could sue the EPA to regulate “greenhouse gases” under the Clean Air Act – which states that Congress must regulate “any air pollutant” that can “reasonably be anticipated to endanger public health or welfare.”

    By a 5 to 4 vote, the Supreme Court ruled Massachusetts had standing to sue the EPA over potential damage caused to its territory by global warming, namely land lost to sea level rise caused by vehicle emissions. On this, the entire EPA edifice of regulating CO2 is based.

    The decision ignored the fact that 18,000 years ago, Massachusetts was covered by thousands of feet of ice, and that the melting of the ice increased sea levels by some 120 meters (400 feet), which no doubt resulted in a loss of territory. Based on the Supreme Court argument, and absent any contradictory evidence, one must assume most federal judges have very limited knowledge of science, mathematics, geological history, etc. Further, there is no reason to assume a federal judge can understand complex charts, graphs, etc. With that in mind, Haapala wrote a preface to his response, part of which follows (typos revised):

    The answers to these questions must be placed into a context that makes sense. Below is an effort to do so, followed by a brief answer to each question. Emphasis is placed on hard evidence, not speculation. The hard evidence comes from repeated laboratory tests or repeated observations which include all information, including that which contradicts an important concept. Computer models that are not rigorously tested or fail basic tests are not hard evidence, no matter how often repeated. US global climate models have not been rigorously tested.

    Energy Flows: The issue is energy flow: what slows or intensifies energy flow to the earth and from the earth to space. It is not straight forward. There are several sources of instability and / or uncertainty.

    The principle source of energy is the sun, electromagnetic light, solar wind (plasma), and solar magnetism. The changing intensity of the sun, changing orbit of the earth, and changing tilt affect the earth’s climate. Also, cosmic rays, from exploding stars, play a role (elements heavier than iron come from supernova explosions.) These are external sources of instability, uncertainty.

    Complicating the issue even further is the earth’s rotation changing two dynamic fluids – the atmosphere and the oceans. Oceans cover over 70% of the earth’s surface. Fluid dynamics is not well understood. Forced by the rotation of the earth, these two dynamic fluids are unstable, but internal to the climate system.

    Thus, we have natural variation without human influence, some of it is poorly understood or misunderstood. For example, carbon dioxide (CO2) is the atmospheric gas most readily absorbed by water, rain. Cold water more readily absorbs gases than warm water. When the oceans cool they absorb more atmospheric CO2, when they warm they release CO2, increasing its concentration in the atmosphere.

    This variation in the composition of the atmosphere is seen in ice cores borings, such as those taken at Vostok in Antarctica. Unfortunately, many people, including Al Gore, had the time lines wrong. They falsely believe the variation in CO2 caused the variation in temperatures seen is ice cores, thus declaring CO2 was the cause of the temperature change. The cause-effect mechanism was the opposite. Temperature change caused by other mechanisms subsequently caused change in CO2 concentrations. Careful examination of the ice cores at the end of the last warm period, the Eemian, show that falling temperatures lead falling CO2 concentrations for about 14,000 years.

    Based on geology, for over 2.5 million years the world has been in a cold period with ice ages interrupted by brief warm periods of 10,000 to 15,000 years. We have been in a warm period for about 11,500 years called the Holocene. The Earth’s orbital changes, known as Milankovitch cycles, are the generally accepted explanation for these broad changes in temperatures. What occurred earlier than 2.5 million years ago is not germane for this discussion.

    Recent warming and cooling: Within the Holocene, we have strong physical evidence of warming and cooling, less extreme than that of Milankovitch cycles. The strongest physical evidence, supported by extensive laboratory testing, indicates that changing solar energy is responsible. Changing solar energy, namely solar wind, changes the number of cosmic rays hitting the earth’s atmosphere with high energy levels, which, in turn, cause changes in condensation of water vapor causing cloudiness. More cosmic rays with high energy hitting the atmosphere results in more cloudiness. Fewer cosmic rays with high energy hitting the atmosphere results in less cloudiness. Small changes in cloudiness significantly effect the electromagnetic energy hitting the surface. For example, clouds reduce visible light, clear skies increase it, cooling and warming the planet, respectively.

    Sunspots indicate the difference between the phases of an active sun with more solar wind, and a dormant sun with less solar wind. When Galileo started observing the sun with a telescope during the little ice age, there were few sunspots. In the 20th century, the sun was active, with more sunspots. These changes in solar activity explain warming and cooling periods during the Holocene, including the little ice age and the Medieval Warm Period. Russian astronomers, particularly, warn of a decline in solar activity over several solar cycles, each lasting about 11 years. This may result in a cooling period.

    Greenhouse gases: The issue of greenhouse gas warming centers on how much of the energy flow passing through the atmosphere is absorbed by the atmospheric gases. Many laboratories have repeated tests for over a century, with handbooks published on the results since the 1920s. All gases absorb energy at various wavelengths, however in the wavelength of visible light, no energy is absorbed by gases. Absorption properties depend on the gas. Nitrogen, oxygen and other gases absorb energy in the ultraviolet spectrum – with wavelengths shorter than violet in visible light. Other gases, such as water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, etc., absorb energy in the infrared spectrum, longer than red in visible light. [Infrared radiation is invisible to the human eye.] These gases absorb photons in the wavelengths of infrared radiation given off by the earth. If all the photons of a particular wavelength are absorbed, there is nothing more for gas to absorb in that wavelength. That wavelength is said to be “saturated”

    Without atmospheric gases absorbing infrared radiation, the earth would be about –18 °C (0 °F) and largely uninhabitable. The day-night temperature range would be huge, similar to the moon. In the Holocene, the average temperature has been about 15 °C (59 °F), with periods of warming and cooling. The net effect of the greenhouse gases is to slow the emission of energy into space, thereby warming the planet.

    Laboratory tests show the effect of greenhouse gases varies by type of gas. The dominant greenhouse gas is water vapor. It absorbs radiation from a broad range of wavelengths in the infrared range. Water vapor is also the most abundant greenhouse gas, consisting of about 1 to 2% of the atmosphere, near the surface. (Less in the deserts, more in the tropics.) However, with increasing altitude water vapor “freezes out”, falls as rain and the concentration of water vapor falls to a few parts per million. At about 10 km (33,000 feet), CO2, which does not “freeze out” becomes the most abundant greenhouse gas.

    Still, CO2 constitutes only about 4 parts per 10,000 (0.04%, or 400 parts per million) of the atmosphere. Further, the absorption wavelengths of CO2 are limited. It is primarily in the 15-micron wavelength range of infrared energy that CO2 is an effective absorber, where the infrared energy emitted by the earth peaks. More significantly, the ability of additional CO2 to absorb energy falls rapidly, resulting in a rapidly declining warming effect (a logarithmic increase). For carbon dioxide, the absorption ability is far greater for the first 20 parts per million than for the later 200 parts going from 300 to 500 parts per million. After 60 ppm the absorption curve becomes quite flat!

    For an overview of the Supreme Court decision see:…

    Combating the Beast From the East: A hard cold front hit northern Europe, which demonstrated the unreliability of depending on wind and solar for electricity. Further, the use of natural gas for heat in the UK was strained. Liquid natural gas (LNG) was required. The first shipment of LNG from the East Coast of the US was headed south in the Atlantic, apparently bound for Asia, when it was diverted to head north towards England.

    This event indicates several important changes with the development of natural gas from shale. The tanker came from Maryland, the Chesapeake Bay, where a long dormant facility was converted from receiving LNG to shipping LNG. The natural gas probably came from Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania. According to the EIA, Pennsylvania produces about 20% of US natural gas, second only to Texas. Also, because the tanker changed course, there is an international spot market for gas, indicating more than adequate production capability, not requiring long-term contracts. Importers in the UK were willing to pay more for the gas, than the importers were willing to pay where the tanker was headed.

    Russian gas pipelines into Europe give its companies a strong edge in price. The total cost of shipping LNG from wellhead to receiving pipeline is not clearly known but estimated to be about $6 per million BTUs. With increased US production, the geographical advantage enjoyed by Russian companies is diminishing and the shipping costs appear to be diminishing.

    Unfortunately, Green politicians continue to limit the ability to use hydraulic fracturing for gas in the UK, playing on false fears. Similarly, Green politicians in the northeastern states of the US prevent the citizens from enjoying the Pennsylvania bounty. Building pipelines is highly restricted by New York and in New England. Worse, New York is preventing development of Marcellus Shale in its state. Now, Governor Cuomo has declared a massive subsidy of $1.4 billion to renewable energy. If these Green politicians have a medical emergency, will they demand the facilities operate only on renewable energy?

    Please note that in his analysis, Paul Homewood refutes the current, popular idea the UK is receiving major supplies of Russian gas. See links under Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind, Questioning European Green, Energy Issues – Non-US, and…

    A Litigation Win! Tim Ball was sued by Andrew Weaver, an author in four IPCC Assessment Reports. After years, Ball won in court in British Columbia. Ball describes his experience and is assessing reviving the lawsuit Mr. Michael Mann initiated against him. Group Think does not necessarily win. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

    Additions and Corrections: Long-time SEPP supporter and TWTW reader, Ken Towe recognized an error in the TWTW statement: “that it has never well demonstrated how dense molecules of CFCs rise to the stratosphere.” As Towe asserts, molecules of Fluorine and Chlorine have been demonstrated to exist in the stratosphere. Molecules of Freon do not survive but react with Ozone. We thank Ken Towe for bringing this discrepancy to our attention. Feedback from the readers of TWTW is always appreciated and valuable.

    Number of the Week: 27.5 times in 10 years: According to the EIA, Pennsylvania Natural Gas Marketed Production grew from 198,295 million cubic feet in 2008 to 5,461,259 million cubic feet in 2017 – an increase of 27.5 times in 10 years. This increase occurred on private and state-owned lands, without any special subsidies or tax incentives. There has been no significant increase in oil and gas production on federally controlled lands or waters.

    Yet, citing fears produced by bureaucratic science, without hard evidence, politicians restrict the public in the US northeastern states from enjoying this, and similar, bounties. Instead, these politicians glorify themselves by announcing grand subsidies to unreliable wind and solar energy, at a great cost to the consumers and the taxpayers. See: Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind, and…


    Science: Is the Sun Rising?

    Interview: The Connection Between Cosmic Rays, Clouds and Climate
    Interview of Henrik and Jacob Svensmark by Benny Peiser and Jonny Bairstow on GWPF TV, Mar 16, 2018…

    Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?

    New paper: The missing link between cosmic rays, clouds, and climate change on Earth
    By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Dec 19, 2017…

    Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

    Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
    Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2013…

    Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
    Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2014…

    Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
    The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
    By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, NIPCC, Nov 23, 2015
    Download with no charge…

    Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
    S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008…

    Challenging the Orthodoxy

    Rep. Lamar Smith: Climate change and the scientific method – we should welcome new research, not resist it
    By Rep. Lamar Smith, Fox News, Mar 12, 2018…

    First Climate Lawsuit Judgment
    By Dr. Tim Ball, A Different Perspective, Mar 9, 2018…
    “I am extremely grateful for the judgment of a complete dismissal in the lawsuit brought against me by Andrew Weaver. It is a victory for free speech and a blow against the use of the law to silence people. As with all events, there is so much more that rarely receives attention yet is essential to understanding and improving conditions in the future.”

    The Conquest of Climate
    By Will Boisvert, Progress and Peril, Feb 23, 2018 [H/t GWPF]…

    Oren Cass: Doomsday Climate Scenarios Are a Joke
    By Oren Cass, WSJ, Via GWPF, Mar 12, 2018…
    Link to paper: Overheated: How Flawed Analyses Overestimate the Costs of Climate Change
    By Oren Cass, Manhattan Institute, Mar 11, 2018…
    Link to paper: Global Non-linear Effect of Temperature on Economic Production
    By Burke, Hsiang, & Miguel, Nature, Oct 21, 2015……
    Link to government report: Climate Change: Information on Potential Economic Effects Could Help Guide Federal Efforts to Reduce Fiscal Exposure
    By Staff Writers, GAO, Sep 2017…

    “Fails The Test Of Science”: Another Rahmstorf/Mann Horror Climate Scenario Gets Assigned To The Dustbin
    PIK alarm story fails the test of science: Jet Stream will also meander as usual in the future
    By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt, (German text translated by P Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, Mar 16, 2018…
    Link to paper: The Dynamic Character of Northern Hemisphere Flow Regimes in a Near-Term Climate Change Projection
    By Jensen, Akperov, Mokhov, Lupo, and Sun, Atmosphere, Jan 16, 2018…

    Op-Ed: Clean Coal is the way to power Africa – and SA academics know how
    Donald Trump can talk about “beautiful clean coal”, but South Africa may be years ahead of the United States in achieving the dream.
    By Geoff Hill, Daily Maverick, South Africa, Mar 16, 2018 [H/t GWPF]…
    “South Africa gets more than 90% of its power from coal, in Botswana it’s 100%, and both Kenya and Tanzania are building new coal-fired generators.”
    [SEPP Comment: According to the article more than 600 million Africans live without [electric?] power.]

    Amstrup & colleages can’t refute my critique of their 2007 polar bear survival model, Part 2
    By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Mar 12, 2018…
    “The premise of my 2017 paper, and the focus of my State of the Polar Bear Report, is that the model prediction made by Amstrup and colleagues in 2007 failed, based on observations of sea ice and polar bear population sizes estimated since then. Nothing Amstrup and Derocher have said undermines that conclusion. Polar bears are thriving because the assumptions Amstrup made about how the bears would respond to much reduced summer sea ice conditions were wrong.”

    Challenging the Orthodoxy – Group Think

    A Classic Example Of Groupthink
    By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know that, Mar 12, 2018

    Global warming: real, or groupthink?
    Transport is now the biggest source of man-made carbon dioxide in the UK, and decarbonising the sector is a Government priority. Cutting emissions is supposed to save the planet from soaring temperatures. But a new report says the experts have it all wrong.
    By Andrew Forster, TransportXtra, Mar 5, 2018 [H/t GWPF]…
    “Professor Martin Siegert, co-director of the institute, [Grantham Institute for Climate Change and Environment at Imperial College] said: ‘The idea that academics follow the line of the group is nonsense. Academics are always looking for the paradigm-changing research. Most don’t achieve it, but if there is evidence that changes the consensus, the scientific method compels us to publish it.
    “’The problem alluded to isn’t one of group thinking, rather that evidence against the consensus simply doesn’t exist. If it did, it would be published by now.’” [Boldface added.]
    [SEPP Comment: NIPCC has published extensive evidence against the consensus, which this professor and the Climate Establishment ignores.]

    Defending the Orthodoxy

    Another government sponsored climate crapstorm coming our way
    By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 12, 2018…
    Link to prepublication version: Review of the Draft Fourth National Climate Assessment
    By Robin Bell, et al. National Academies Press, 2018…
    “The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) asked the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to review the draft Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) – a congressionally mandated report that evaluates the state of climate science and the broad range of impacts of climate change in the United States every four years – and the draft Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2) – a report that feeds into the overall assessment process developed by the USGCRP.”

    Questioning the Orthodoxy

    Climate Change Hoax Exposed
    Apocalypse now?
    By Cal Thomas, Chicago Tribune, Via ICECAP, Mar 15, 201…

    Is the Western U.S. Snowpack Declining “Dramatically”?
    By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Mar 15, 2018…
    Link to paper: Dramatic declines in snowpack in the western US
    By Philip Mote, et al, Climate and Atmospheric Science, Mar 2, 2018…

    Kathleen Harnett White: Common Energy/Climate Sense
    By Charles Battig, Master Resource, Mar 13, 2018…

    After Paris!

    Trump’s Pick To Replace Former Exxon CEO As Secretary Of State Is A Bigger Climate Denier
    Mike Pompeo, who was tapped to replace Rex Tillerson, could be the first secretary of state to reject climate science outright. Climate deniers have high hopes for him.
    By Alexander C. Kaufman, Huff Post, Mar 13, 2018…

    Trump Ousts Tillerson: What’s Next for the Paris Climate Treaty?
    By Marlo Lewis, Jr. CEI, Mar 13, 2018…

    Change in US Administrations

    How a climate skeptic marginalized for years at the Interior Dept. rose to prominence under Trump
    By Juliet Eilperin and Dino Grandoni, Washington Post, Mar 9, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: Indur Goklany is the author of “The Improving State of the World: Why We’re Living Longer, Healthier, More Comfortable Lives On a Cleaner Planet” (2007). The theme of this comprehensive work, backed by evidence, is contrary to the views of many in Washington and the prior administration.]

    Pruitt’s climate clash was declared dead. There’s a Plan B
    By Robin Bravender, E&E News, Mar 14, 2018…

    The White House’s Climate Change Believers Are Headed Out the Door
    By Justin Worland, Time, Mar 15, 2018 [H/t Cooler Heads]…

    US sets new record for censoring, withholding gov’t files
    By Ted Bridis, AP, ABC News, Mar 12, 2018 [H/t Bill Balgord]…

    Problems in the Orthodoxy

    In Startling Reversal, Scientific American Counsels People to ‘Chill out’ Over Global Warming
    By Thomas Williams, Breitbart, Mar 12, 2018 [H/t John Dunn]…

    Seeking a Common Ground

    You Ought to Have a Look: Lukewarming the News
    By Patrick Michaels, CATO, Mar 15, 2018…
    Link to Manifesto: An Ecomodernist Manifesto, April 2016…

    The Scientific Method: Right Unless It’s Wrong
    By Terry L. Mirll, American Thinker, Mar 11, 2018…

    Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science

    Elevated CO2 Improves Growth and Nitrogen Fixation of Cowpea
    Dey, S.K., Chakrabarti, B., Prasanna, R., Pratap, D., Singh, S.D., Purakayastha, T.J. and Pathak, H. 2017. Elevated carbon dioxide level along with phosphorus application and cyanobacterial inoculation enhances nitrogen fixation and uptake in cowpea crop. Archives of Agronomy and Soil Science 63: 1927-1937. Mar 15, 2018…

    A 33-Year Increase in Net Primary Productivity in Southwest China
    Guan, X., Shen, H., Gan, W., Yang, G., Wang, L. Li, X. and Zhang, L. 2017. A 33-year NPP monitoring study in southwest China by the fusion of multi-source remote sensing and station data. Remote Sensing 9: 1082, doi:10.3390/rs9101082. Mar 14, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: Thanks to increasing CO2, despite decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature, Net Primary Productivity (NPP) increased.

    The Interactive Effects of Elevated CO2 and Ozone on Chickpea
    Singh, R.N., Mukherjee, J., Sehgal, V.K., Bhatia, A., Krishnan, P., Das, D.K., Kumar, V. and Harit, R. 2017. Effect of elevated ozone, carbon dioxide and their interaction on growth, biomass and water use efficiency of chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.). Journal of Agrometeorology 19: 301-305. Mar 12, 2018…
    “Chickpea (Cicer arietinum) is the third most important legume crop. It is currently grown on approximately 11.5 million hectares around the world, although most all of that production (96%) is in developing countries. Yet despite such agricultural prominence, very few studies have investigated the potential impacts of climate change on chickpea.”

    Model Issues

    Recent research on aerosol forcing of the CMIP5 models
    By Frank Bosse, Climate Etc. Mar 11, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: The IPCC realizes the effect of aerosol cooling if human emitted, but not the effect of aerosol cooling if created by nature?]

    Measurement Issues — Surface

    NOAA Tamper With NY Temperatures Again
    By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 15, 2018

    Changing Weather

    An “Exceptionally large amount of winter snow in Northern Hemisphere this year”
    By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 14, 2018…

    California’s “March Miracle” is Not Over
    By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Mar 17, 2018…
    “The only negative of all this precipitation is that it will encourage the growth of grasses, which can enhance the potential for fire danger next fall after it has dried out.”
    [SEPP Comment: Rain causes wildfires – proof of climate change?]

    Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

    The Changing Arctic–Nov 1922
    By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 10, 2018

    Lowering Standards

    At The Times, Promoting The Climate Scare With Fake Information
    By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Mar 12, 2018…

    SCIENCE Magazine: Sloppy Reporting
    Guest Essay by Kip Hansen, WUWT, Mar 13, 2018…

    Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?

    Chinese satellite filled with corrosive fuel will probably hit… the ocean
    By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Mar 11, 2018…
    Link to article: Chinese satellite filled with corrosive fuel could hit lower Michigan
    By Staff Writers, Fox News, Mar 11, 2018…
    From the article: “According to a new report from the Aerospace Corporation, southern portions of lower Michigan fall into the regions listed as having a high probability of debris landing from the 8.5-ton space station. The report also identifies northern China, central Italy and northern Spain as regions with higher chances of impact.”

    Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.

    Press Release Science: ‘Dissolving Starfish’ – debunked
    Guest Essay by Kip Hansen, WUWT, Mar 8, 2018…

    Weathering Trump’s skepticism, U.S. officials still fighting global warming
    By Timothy Gardner & Alister Doyle, Reuters, Mar 15, 2018…
    “I am concerned that much of our climate policy remains on autopilot,” complained Trump’s former energy adviser Myron Ebell, now a research director at the right-leaning Competitive Enterprise Institute, who said it reflects a failure by the administration to fill key positions and replace staffers who oppose the president’s agenda.
    [SEPP Comment: Ebell was head of the Trump EPA transition team, not former energy adviser.]

    Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.

    Delingpole: Slowly, the Green Swamp Is Draining from the White House
    By James Delingpole, Breitbart, Mar 9, 2018…
    “’Any good will Peter Navarro had in 1992 has been squandered by his myopic worldview and work on behalf of a hateful, xenophobic administration,’ Sierra Club spokesman Adam Beitman said yesterday in a statement.” [Boldface added]

    Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children

    Feeling it: UW Bothell class helps students face emotional impact of a warming planet
    A popular new class on climate change at the University of Washington Bothell tackles the emotional dimensions of a warming planet, helping students develop personal resources to deal with a lifetime of witnessing environmental losses.
    By Katherine Long, Seattle Times, Mar 13, 2018 [H/t Cooler Heads]…

    Questioning European Green

    UK’s green bank ‘failed to live up to its ambitions’
    By Jonny Bairstow, Energy Live, Mar 14, 2018…

    ‘Beast from the East’ exposed our energy failings
    By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 13, 2018

    Cold snap next week ‘puts Britain at the mercy of Russian gas giants’ as reserves in Europe reach record lows
    By Rachel Millard, Daily Mail, Mar 15, 2018…

    For Now, Germany Will Continue Its Energy Self-Delusion
    By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Mar 14, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: Speeding down a dead-end street?]

    Fritz Vahrenholt: German Opposition to Wind Farms Is Growing
    Interview by Staff Writers, Weld Am Sonntag, Trans. GWPF, Mar 14, 2018…

    Wind’s False Promise Of Environmental Purity…Everywhere “Everything Is Rotating And Blinking”…”High Price To Pay”
    By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 13, 2018…

    Questioning Green Elsewhere

    The Enormous Costs of Remaking the US Electric Power System
    By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, Mar 16, 2018…

    The Political Games Continue

    Russia Crisis: GWPF Calls on Government to Speed Up UK Shale Development
    By Staff Writers, GWPF, Mar 16, 2018…
    Link to submission: Written evidence submitted by the Global Warming Policy Forum…

    Russia’s aim with European gas pipeline is purely political
    By Anders Åslund, The Hill, Mar 13, 2018…

    Litigation Issues

    Trial Lawyers Handling Cities’ Global Warming Lawsuits Stand To Make Billions
    By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Mar 11, 2018…

    Warming, Judge Orders Climate Lesson
    Courting Climate Comedy
    By William Briggs, The Stream, Mar 10, 2018 [H/t John Dunn]…

    Cities in oil suits offer 1998 climate memo as evidence
    By Anne C. Mulkern, E&E News, Mary 14, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: The authentication of the memo may be interesting.]

    Judge: U.S. responsible for floods linked to habitat projects
    By Amanda Reilly, E&E News, Mar 14, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: Pleasing the Greens is not free.]

    Green groups sue EPA for correspondence with climate skeptic group
    By Miranda Green, The Hill, Mar 15, 2018…
    “Last spring, PBS found that the group disseminated packets to more than 200,000 teachers which included the organization’s books, ‘Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming.’”
    [SEPP Comment: Is disagreement with the Green agenda a crime against humanity? The booklet is a distillation of NIPCC reports, initiated by Fred Singer of SEPP.]

    Schwarzenegger Wants To Sue Oil Companies For Murder? They’ve Helped Lift Billions Out Of Poverty
    Editorial, IBD, Mar 12, 2018…

    Energy Issues – Non-US

    The Week of The Beast Unplugged
    By Euan Mearns, Energy Matters, Mar 15, 2018…
    “The key point I want to make is that during the week of The Beast the UK’s remaining 10.6 GW of coal ran flat out day and night for 8 days. I think the time has come for the UK Government and National Grid to explain how they plan to keep the lights on when they close down this coal capacity by 2022-2025.”

    US Shale Cargo Turns Towards UK as Spat With Russia Rumbles
    By Staff Writers, Financial Times, Mar 15, 2018…

    Thanks to the anti-fracking lobby, Britain can’t avoid Russian gas
    By Ross Clark, The Spectator, Mar 15, 2018…

    UK Natural Gas Imports
    By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 16, 2018
    [SEPP Comment: Only a small amount, if any, comes from Russia.]

    THE SUN SAYS We listened to the eco-fantasists over fracking and now we have hostile Russia heating our homes
    After putting our faith in wind and solar power, today proved woefully inadequate, we are at the mercy of a hostile country to heat our homes
    Editorial, The Sun, Mar 16, 2018 [H/t GWPF]…

    Nationwide ban on use of smoky coal to begin in September
    Ireland to join ‘Powering Past Coal’ international alliance to push end of coal use
    By Kevin O’Sullivan, The Irish Times, Mar 13, 2018…
    “Moneypoint is Ireland’s only remaining coal-fired powered station, importing and burning around two million tonnes of coal a year from as far afield as Colombia. It remains one of Ireland’s largest power stations with an output of over 900 megawatts, accounting for a fifth of Ireland’s electricity needs.” [Scheduled to close in 2025.]
    [SEPP Comment: Would “clean burning” peat still be allowed?]

    Lights Dimming Over India’s Solar Energy Sector
    By Staff Writers, Financial Times, Via GWPF, Mar 11, 2018…

    Venezuela’s Meltdown Comes At Convenient Time For OPEC
    By Dan Eberhart, Forbes, Mar 12, 2018 [H/t Energy Matters]…

    Energy Issues – Australia

    Bill shock debacle: Solar rooftop subsidies in Australia doubling, will cost $1.3 billion this year, $160 per household
    By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 13, 2018…

    Australia’s secret carbon market is “live” — costs about $7m for the Emissions Trading Scheme we voted against
    By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 16, 2018…

    Pumped hydro energy storage in Australia – Snowy 2.0 vs. sea water
    By Roger Andrews, Energy Matters, Mar 12, 2018…
    “This post addresses the question of whether Australia might not do better to pursue sea water pumped hydro instead of Snowy 2.0-type projects. Sea water pumped hydro potential in Australia is limited by the lack of suitable coastal topography, but there are sites capable of storing very large amounts of sea water at distances of more than 20km from the coast. The question is whether these sites can be developed and operated at acceptable cost.”

    Energy Issues — US

    Evidence Mounts Of Full-Scale Russian Campaign To Undermine American Energy
    By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Mar 16, 2018…

    At this rate, it’s going to take nearly 400 years to transform the energy system
    Here are the real reasons we’re not building clean energy anywhere near fast enough.
    By James Temple, MIT Technology Review, Mar 14, 2018…

    EPA Year in Review 2017-2018
    By Staff Writers, EPA, Accessed Mar 15, 2018…

    EPA and other Regulators on the March

    Administration asks court to dismiss lawsuit from EPA scientists
    By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Mar 12, 2018…

    Washington’s Control of Energy

    Grid operators tell FERC ‘resilience’ is regional in nature
    By Rod Kuckro and Sam Mintz, E&E News, Mar 12, 2018…

    Return of King Coal?

    The Truth About Coal, China, and Smog
    By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Mar 13, 2018…

    Unbelievable: Coal puts halt to South Africa’s renewables industry
    In an unexpected turn of events, two unions representing coal interests have put a halt to the signing of 27 renewable energy power purchase agreements (PPAs), thus effectively stopping South Africa’s renewables industry in its tracks.
    By Becky Beetz and Emiliano Bellini, PV Magazine, Mar 13, 2018…

    Nuclear Energy and Fears

    China Plans to Build Multiple Nuclear Reactors in 2018
    The Asian nation is looking to promote the development of nuclear power by constructing six to eight new reactors this year.
    By Nicole Rashotte, Investing News, Mar 14, 2018…

    Nuclear fusion on brink of being realised, say MIT scientists
    Carbon-free fusion power could be ‘on the grid in 15 years’
    By Hannah Devlin, The Guardian, Mar 9, 2018 [H/t Energy Matters]…
    [SEPP Comment: Based on a planned experiment? Nuclear fusion has been “just around the corner” for decades.]

    Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind

    New York commits $1.4 billion to renewable energy
    By Michelle Froese, Windpower, Mar 12, 2018…
    “’Governor Cuomo is demonstrating outstanding leadership in helping to solve the climate crisis and building a sustainable future,’ said Vice President Gore. ‘His vision and leadership stand in stark contrast to the Trump administration’s malignant mission to make us even more dependent on the dirty and destructive fossil fuels. Now more than ever, it’s up to all of us to step up and act on this urgent cause of our time. Governor Cuomo is showing how it can be done.’”

    Wind farm blades eroding after few years at sea
    ITV News, Mar 12, 2018…

    6 New Papers Unsheathe A Hushed-Up ‘Green’ Reality: Habitats Are Being Destroyed By Wind Turbines
    By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Mar 15, 2018…

    Energy & Environmental Newsletter: March 12, 2018
    By John Droz, Jr., Master Resource, Mar 12, 2018…

    What Happens When There Is Too Much Wind?
    By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Mar 14, 2018

    Solar power capacity in Texas expected to double, making life tougher for power companies
    By Ryan Maye Handy, Houston Chronicle, Mar 16, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: From a small amount. The article brushes over the major issue: as with wind power, solar fails to produce at the time of biggest consumption, late afternoons and evenings in the summer.]

    Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles

    Electric cars: are we being too optimistic?
    By Martin Livermore, The Scientific Alliance, Mar 16, 2018…

    Green Flop: Electric Car Sales Tumble Over Price and Plugs
    By Staff Writers, The Times, Via GWPF, Mar 16, 2018…

    California Dreaming

    Pruitt: California ‘can’t dictate to the rest of the country’ on fuel emissions
    By Miranda Green, The Hill, Mar 13, 2018…

    California is taking a cooling off period after generating too much energy from the sun
    By Michael J. Coren, Quartz, Mar 9, 2018…

    California’s Bullet Train To Fiscal Oblivion
    Editorial, IBD, Mar 12, 2018…

    Other Scientific News

    Bye bye Plastics Scare: Krill can Digest Plastic
    Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Mar 12, 2018…
    Link to paper: Turning microplastics into nanoplastics through digestive fragmentation by Antarctic krill
    By Amanda L. Dawson, et al. Nature Communications, Mar 8, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: The real question: Is there a process that break down plastics into substances that can be used [actually digested] by plants or animals?]

    Other News that May Be of Interest

    Arrest of the “Lurk” Banking Trojan Gang
    By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, Mar 11, 2018…
    “First, the rise and fall of the Lurk gang seems to me to be a counter-example to the media and U.S. think-tank portrayal of a Russia in which a leaf doesn’t fall (let alone a hacking group operate) except under Putin’s command and control. The Lurk gang clearly operated outside government command-and-control. They stole from Russian banking institutions and, despite the best efforts of Russian police and a very competent computer security firm (Kaspersky), evaded capture for many years. When their end came, it was only through a concerted effort by institutions of Russian civil society. As a police procedural, there seem to be many elements in common with a corresponding Western saga.”

    Announcing, Crisis in the Mideast, a novel
    By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Mar 13, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: The cause of the fictional crisis is more realistic that the one proclaimed by President Carter: the world would run out of oil by around the year 2000.]

    Britain’s housing crisis is caused by the wrong kind of regulation
    By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, Mar 12, 2018…
    “Restricting whether you can build, rather than what, drives up prices.”

    Burning coal may have caused Earth’s worst mass extinction
    New geological research from Utah suggests the end-Permian extinction was mainly caused by burning coal, ignited by magma
    By Dana Nuccitelli, The Guardian, Mar 12, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: The reporter is one of the “experts” who manipulated the last polls declaring “97% of scientists,” after the numbers were in. George Gallup would have fired him.]

    Exxon CEO struggles to reverse Tillerson’s legacy of failed bets
    By Ernest Scheyder, Reuters, Mar 7, 2018…
    [SEPP Comment: Would the article have been published after Tillerson left the administration?]

    That explains it!
    By Staff Writers, Climate Change, Mar 15, 2018…
    “’New computer models that look at ocean temperatures instead of the atmosphere show the clearest signal yet that global warming is well underway,’ said Tim Barnett of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography.
    “Speaking at an annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Barnett said climate models based on air temperatures are weak because most of the evidence for global warming is not even there. ‘The real place to look is in the ocean,’ Barnett told a news conference.” [Boldface added.], 18 Feb 2005
    [SEPP Comment: All that is needed is an explanation of how the greenhouse effect occurs in the oceans.]

    Runaway warming process
    By Staff Writers, Climate Change, Mar 13, 2018…
    “Many scientists concede that without drastic emissions reductions by 2020, we are on the path toward a 4C rise as early as mid-century, with catastrophic consequences, including the loss of the world’s coral reefs; the disappearance of major mountain glaciers; the total loss of the Arctic summer sea-ice, most of the Greenland ice-sheet and the break-up of West Antarctica; acidification and overheating of the oceans; the collapse of the Amazon rainforest; and the loss of Arctic permafrost; to name just a few.
    “Each of these ecosystem collapses could trigger an out-of-control runaway warming process. Worse, scientists at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the University of California at Berkeley now project that we are actually on course to reach global temperatures of up to 8C within 90 years.”, 23 Sep 2010

    Greenland polar bears feel the heat!
    By Staff Writers, Climate Change, Mar 12, 2018…

    “Polar bear penis bones are shrinking in Eastern Greenland, according to Christian Sonne of the University of Aarhus in Denmark and colleagues.

    “They found that polar bears living in the Eastern Greenland are somewhat less well endowed than their cousins in Svalbard and the Canadian Arctic.

    “They say this could be due to the high prevalence of pollutants such as PCBs and DDT in Eastern Greenland – pollutants which records show are less prevalent in Svalbard and the Canadian Arctic.

    “In 2004, Steven Fergusson of the University of Manitoba in Canada showed that carnivores living in snowy environments, close to the poles, tend to have longer penis bones to help them be more competitive.

    “So Sonne’s group concludes that human pollution, combined with the difficulty of finding food in warming climates, may spell disaster for Eastern Greenland polar bears.”
    New Scientist, 31 Aug 2007

    1. A Modest Plan to Save Coal
    Subsidies for renewables distort the market. My legislation would help level the playing field.
    By Rep Larry Bucshon (R, IN), WSJ, Mar 14, 2018…

    SUMMARY: In arguing for a method for fighting the effects of an ill-conceived tax credits for unreliable, renewable electricity, the Congressman argues with another tax credit for coal. He writes:

    “Americans take electricity for granted. When we flip a light switch or turn on a television, we expect it to work every time. A resilient and reliable energy grid to deliver affordable electricity is critical for the well-being of society, the expansion of the economy, and the security of the nation.

    “There are many sources of energy that can power the grid. As a supporter of an all-the-above energy strategy, I believe utility companies should rely on a diverse mix of fuel sources, just as investors rely on diversified stock portfolios to ensure their financial well-being.

    “Each option has its advantages. Coal-fired electricity is one of the most reliable, fuel-secure and affordable energy sources. This was evident during the 2014 polar vortex, when subzero temperatures strained the power grid. It was the reliable baseload power plants, such as coal and nuclear, that prevented blackouts in many regions of the country. During the bomb cyclone a few weeks ago, many states relied on coal to provide more electricity than any other fuel source.

    “But federal policies are distorting the energy marketplace in favor of less reliable, less resilient, less affordable sources of electricity. Renewables have received various tax subsidies for the past four decades. Even after the recent tax reform greatly simplified the code, federal taxpayers continue to provide heavy subsidies for less dependable and more expensive sources of electricity. The Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that tax subsidies for renewables will total more than $36 billion from 2016-20. The result is an unlevel playing field that gives an advantage to fuel sources subsidized by federal taxpayers.

    “Since 2010 more than one-third of the nation’s coal-fired power plants have shut down or announced plans to close. That’s equivalent to shutting down the entire electricity supply of Indiana, Ohio, Illinois and Kentucky combined. Thirty-nine coal-fired electric generating units have been forced to close in the Hoosier State alone. Federal and some state policies put coal-fired generating plants at a disadvantage in the energy marketplace and make it more difficult to keep them running and providing reliable and affordable energy to American consumers.

    “Ideally, these distorting taxpayer subsidies would not exist, letting market forces determine which sources of energy utility operators select. But they do. To help ensure Americans continue to enjoy reliable and affordable electricity, Congress must level the playing field.

    ‘That is why I am introducing the Electricity Reliability and Fuel Security Act, which would create a tax credit covering a small portion of the costs to operate and maintain existing coal-fired power plants. My proposed credit would last only five years, in contrast to 40 years of subsidies for renewables. This temporary tax credit is necessary to avoid more coal retirements while Congress, the Energy Department, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, grid operators and the North American Electric Reliability Corp. continue working together to ensure that the nation’s electricity grid remains both reliable and resilient.

    The Congressman concludes with the need for reliable and affordable electricity.

    2. Biofuel Mandates Are a Bad Idea Whose Time May Be Up
    There’s bipartisan support for relaxing the 2005-07 mandate. It’ll have to get past Iowa’s GOP senators.
    By Thomas Landstreet, WSJ, Mar 11, 2018…

    SUMMARY: In arguing against a government policy that is obsolete, the founding partner of N3L Capital Management states:

    “The political tide may be turning against the corn ethanol mandate. The Renewable Fuel Standard, which forces oil refiners to mix corn-based fuel into gasoline, is one of history’s great policy boondoggles. Even ex-Rep. Henry Waxman of California, a key sponsor of the original legislation establishing the standard, said Thursday that he favors phasing out the mandate.

    “There’s bipartisan support in Congress for such a move. Sen. Tom Udall (D., N.M.) and Rep. Peter Welch (D., Vt.) have introduced the Greener Fuels Act, and Sen. John Cornyn (R., Texas) is said to be working his own legislation altering the mandate, in response to the recent closure of a Pennsylvania refinery.

    “The corn ethanol mandate was created under the Energy Policy Act of 2005. Two years later, President Bush signed the Energy Independence and Security Act, which expanded the program by providing generous tax credits and subsidies to corn growers and ethanol blenders. It also established ambitious targets, increasing annually, for biofuels in the national fuel mix. The mandate soon diverted 40% of America’s corn crop away from the food supply.”

    After going through some of the problems of ethanol, including reduced fuel economy in automobiles and that ethanol cannot be shipped via conventional pipelines, the author concludes:

    “One of the professed goals of the ethanol mandate was to wean the U.S. from its reliance on foreign oil—but the U.S. is already approaching energy independence because of offshore drilling programs unleashed by the Trump administration’s deregulatory blitz. And if the ethanol mandate were really about encouraging biofuel consumption, why has Congress imposed tariffs that keep out cheap Brazilian sugarcane ethanol? The truth is that the program is motivated more by the demands of domestic corn-growers than by concern over oil dependence or climate change.

    “Revising the mandate will take significant courage and political will, but it’s clearly the right thing to do. The ethanol lobby is extraordinarily powerful, recycling profits gained from this self-dealing policy right back into efforts to protect it. Iowa’s Republican senators, Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst —otherwise solid conservatives—are in thrall to this corporate welfare program and will fight to the death to keep it. But the time has come to modify the ethanol mandate before the costs to the economy and the environment grow steeper.”

    The author does not discuss the harm to people in poor nations that biofuel mandates in rich nations have caused.