Brought to You by The Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Quote of the Week:
“It is in the admission of ignorance and the admission of uncertainty that there is a hope for the continuous motion of human beings in some direction that doesn’t get confined, permanently blocked, as it has so many times before in various periods in the history of man.” – Richard P. Feynman, The Meaning of It All: Thoughts of a Citizen-Scientist
Number of the Week: Three Ways
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
The Greenhouse Effect – The Scientific Method: This week marks the 50th anniversary of humans landing on another celestial body, and their eventual safe return. The event is justly being celebrated in many ways, including recognition of the hundreds of thousands of scientists, engineers, technicians, and workers involved in the Apollo Mission and its success. Of special note are the Human Calculators, mostly women, who performed the tedious calculations of the trajectories involved, with precision. But most importantly, the Apollo Mission was a brilliant example of rigorous application of the scientific method, and its importance of expanding knowledge of the physical world.
Today, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is claiming we are in a “climate crisis” which is leading to extinction of a million species and is a grave danger to humanity. Its special report “Global Warming of 1.5 ºC” in October 2018 stated:
“Predictions say that increase in temperature will cause extreme weather events, rising sea levels, species extinction and reduced capacity to produce food.”
The US Fourth National Climate Assessment made similar claims including:
“Health: Impacts from climate change on extreme weather and climate-related events, air quality, and the transmission of disease through insects and pests, food, and water increasingly threaten the health and well-being of the American people, particularly populations that are already vulnerable.
And “Agriculture: Rising temperatures, extreme heat, drought, wildfire on rangelands, and heavy downpours are expected to increasingly disrupt agricultural productivity in the United States. Expected increases in challenges to livestock health, declines in crop yields and quality, and changes in extreme events in the United States and abroad threaten rural livelihoods, sustainable food security, and price stability.”
The alarms have become so intense that an article in Kaiser Health News stated:
“Therapist Andrew Bryant says the landmark United Nations climate report last October brought a new mental health concern to his patients.
“‘I remember being in sessions with folks the next day. They had never mentioned climate change before, and they were like, ‘I keep hearing about this report,’’ Bryant said. ‘Some of them expressed anxious feelings, and we kept talking about it over our next sessions.’
“Although it is not an official clinical diagnosis, the psychiatric and psychological communities have names for the phenomenon: “climate distress,’ ‘climate grief,’ ‘climate anxiety’ or ‘eco-anxiety.’”
A critical question is: How well do the UN-IPCC and the USGCRP apply the scientific method? The answer is: “Not at all.” They rely on speculation, not on physical evidence from experiments and rigorous observations. The June 15, 2019 TWTW discussed The Right Climate Stuff Research Team (TRCS), of “retired veterans of the Apollo Mission, and other early manned spaceflight missions, voluntarily came together to apply their engineering and scientific skills to conduct an objective, independent assessment of the Anthropogenic (Human-Cause) Global Warming (AGW) alarm and the possibility of an actual threat.”
“Applying their proven skills in problem identification and specification, root cause analysis, and rational decision-making, they reviewed hundreds of reports and technical papers relevant to the issue and discussed the key issues with experts on all sides of the controversy. Based on Conservation of Energy principles, they designed their own model of AGW using greenhouse gas data and earth’s surface temperature from 1850 to 2017. Unlike the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and its followers, they validated their model.”
In a video posted on TRCS website, linked below, Hal Doiron explains their findings and the deficiencies in the UN-IPCC and USGCRP findings. After he reviewed the TWTW, Doiron wrote to TWTW:
“The primary problem we see with most climate research and its alarming global warming predictions, is that it relies far too heavily on un-validated models for its conclusions and publications. We NASA manned space veterans automatically ignore the output of such un-validated models and focus on available physical data, because that is what we were trained to do and what experience in exploring the unknowns of human space travel has taught us.
“NASA has codified its policy in NASA-STD-7009 forbidding use of output from un-validated models to support spacecraft and launch vehicle design decisions nor operational decisions, when human safety is at risk.”
The problem appears to be getting NASA leadership to apply the scientific method to all its scientific publications. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy, Health, Energy, and Climate and
1990 Debate With Fred Singer: Marc Morano of Climate Depot came across a 1990 climate debate on CSPAN between Fred Singer and Jeremy Leggett, president of Greenpeace, UK. The debate took place about a year before Singer founded SEPP. The debate is particularly interesting when evaluating how advances in science have changed the thinking, or not. In 1990, there was no established, comprehensive record of atmospheric temperature trends. Roy Spencer and John Christy published their important paper that year.
Singer stated great uncertainty in the first IPCC assessment report which was published that year. It relied on climate model to predict / project that temperatures would rise about 0.3ºC per decade in the 21st century, or 3 ºC per one hundred years. It also predicted / projected that sea level would rise by 20 cm by 2030 (8 inches) and 65 cm (26 inches) by the end of the century. Singer stated that
• the models have no basis in observational data, are not valid, and are speculation.
• there is no evidence to support greenhouse warming as claimed,
• the computer models are not validated and cannot be trusted.
• need more careful science presented to the public,
• more careful studying of the very complicated atmosphere.
• better study of the oceans and the relationship between the oceans and the atmosphere.
He supports energy conservation, but not forced conservation through higher taxes or rationing.
Leggett asserts great certainty in the predictions of the models and that the IPCC has long chapters on the validation of the models and that they are robust. He states that the dire warnings of the IPCC report need to be heeded and that the warming is an unprecedented threat. It will be much cheaper to save energy than to get it out of the ground. He gives Germany as the outstanding example. There will be 1ºC increase by 2025 (presumably from 1990).
[As side note, the unprecedented warming is often qualified with the phrase in the past 10,000 years. According to NOAA, at the “end of the Younger Dryas, about 11,500 years ago, [warming] was particularly abrupt. In Greenland, temperatures rose 10°C (18°F) in a decade (Alley 2000).” The temperature increase was not uniform, and the possible causes of the Younger Dryas are being evaluated.] See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Changing Climate.
The Greenhouse Effect – Testing Climate Models, Charney: The Charney Report provides the framework for the modeling used by the IPCC, and others. It states:
“The primary effect of an increase of CO2 is to cause more absorption of thermal radiation from the earth’s surface and thus to increase the air temperature in the troposphere. A strong positive feedback mechanism is the accompanying increase of moisture, which is an even more powerful absorber of terrestrial radiation. We have examined with care all known negative feedback mechanisms, such as increase in low or middle cloud amount, and have concluded that the oversimplifications and inaccuracies in the models are not likely to have vitiated the principal conclusion that there will be appreciable warming. The known negative feedback mechanisms can reduce the warming, but they do not appear to be so strong as the positive moisture feedback. We estimate the most probable global warming for a doubling of CO2 to be near 3°C with a probable error of ± 1.5°C. Our estimate is based primarily on our review of a series of calculations with three-dimensional models of the global atmospheric circulation, which is summarized in Chapter 4. We have also reviewed simpler models that appear to contain the main physical factors. These give qualitatively similar results.” Pp 1-2. [Boldface added.]
We need to look at the air temperature in the troposphere to see the greenhouse effect of increasing CO2 and to see whether there is a strong positive feedback mechanism from the accompanying increase of moisture. There was no testing of the models because there were no comprehensive observational data to test models. The Japan Meteorological Agency reanalysis data from 1958 was not comprehensive and not widely accepted. Instead of testing the hypotheses with data, the Charney Report compared the various models. The report closes with:
“We conclude that the predictions of CO2 -induced climate changes made with the various models examined are basically consistent and mutually supporting. The differences in model results are relatively small and may be accounted for by differences in model characteristics and simplifying assumptions. Of course, we can never be sure that some badly estimated or totally overlooked effect may not vitiate our conclusions. We can only say that we have not been able to find such effects. If the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere is indeed doubled and remains so long enough for the atmosphere and the intermediate layers of the ocean to attain approximate thermal equilibrium, our best estimate is that changes in global temperature of the order of 3° C will occur and that these will be accompanied by significant changes in regional climatic patterns.”
Comparing models is not model validation and certainly not up to the standards used by the TRCS research team. All the models may contain similar errors. Despite increasing atmospheric data, including temperature trend data starting 40 years ago, in 1979, the IPCC and the USGCRP rely on model validation techniques that are substandard, or, at best, obsolete. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy.
The Greenhouse Effect – Testing Climate Models, Christy: On their website, TRCS research team posted a video of John Christy on his testing of the Climate Models given to the Gulf Coast Association of Geological Societies Convention, Shreveport, Louisiana October 1, 2018. He begins by illustrating the tiny influence CO2 has a tiny influence when compared with the huge inflow and outflow of energy to the surface of the earth and back into space.
The models overestimate the warming of the troposphere by about three times what is actually occurring. The warming occurs when greenhouse gases delay the outbound infrared energy from the surface to space. Not only do the models greatly overestimate the warming of the troposphere; but also, the strong positive feedback mechanism from increased moisture (water vapor) is not occurring. Either the positive feedback is quite small, or it does not exist. The US climate models fail basic hypothesis testing.
As Christy states, removing the influence of the US does nothing significant to improving temperature trends, or reducing the “climate crisis.” Christy asserts that the models do not have the proper mechanism for release of heat to space, an observation Richard Lindzen has made numerous times, with his discussion of clouds and the “iris effect.”
Christy gives a good demonstration of hypothesis testing, which was so important in preparing for the successful Apollo landing. Unfortunately, some ideologically driven groups, claiming to be scientific, confuse rigorous testing of hypotheses with cherry picking. In hypothesis testing, the points at which the hypothesis fails are recognized as weaknesses that must be addressed, or the hypothesis discarded. In cherry picking, those points in which the hypothesis is successful are emphasized, and data demonstrating the failure of the hypothesis is ignored. As discussed in last week’s TWTW, Christopher Booker classified the latter procedures as groupthink. When applied to government entities it could be called Bureaucratic Science. Certainty those entities doing “climate science” but ignoring atmospheric data fall within this classification.
Observations by Judith Curry: In a podcast by The Heartland Institute, Anthony Watts interviews Judith Curry, former chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology, on her conflicts with the Groupthink of the climate establishment. She discusses her concerns with the uncertainty of the science and that the Climategate emails caused her to start questioning the climate establishment. Her actions of independent thinking are courageous and exemplary. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
Dynamic Analysis: There are several problems with studies reporting that the increasing carbon dioxide will be harmful to life in the oceans. These problems include that any change in ocean pH from increasing CO2 will be gradual, not rapid, thus adding an acid to a water tank is poor experimentational design; another is that offspring often adapt to the environment, and sudden changes by adding acid do not reflect the plasticity of various life forms. In its review of recent scientific papers, CO2 Science bring up the difference between static analysis and dynamic analysis.
“And they [the researchers] say that their study ‘adds to a growing body of literature that highlights the importance of incorporating natural CO2 variability in OA [Ocean Acidification] experiments to accurately predict the responses of shallow water coastal marine species to rising CO2 levels.’ We couldn’t agree more. Hopefully, policy makers will take note and withhold or suspend judgment on this issue until there is enough research conducted properly to provide a realistic assessment of the future effects of OA on marine life.”
See links under Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
ICCC-13: The Thirteenth International Conference on Climate Change, organized by The Heartland Institute, will occur on July 25 at the Trump International Hotel, at 1100 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Washington, DC. The full day schedule features many speakers who reject groupthink and think for themselves.
SEPP will be honored to present its 2019 Fredrick Seitz Memorial Award for Exceptional Courage in the Quest for Knowledge to Richard S. Lindzen, Alfred P Sloan Professor, Emeritus, Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences at MIT. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy – Conference.
SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD
The voting is closed and the winner who most closely meets the qualification is being selected. No missing chards here, one hopes.
Number of the Week: Three Ways: There are now three ways in which believing and acting on UN-IPCC and USGCRP climate reports can be harmful to someone in a Westernized nation. 1) Economically – the reports prompt calls for the destruction of a successful economy and replacing it with vague ideas and unproven technology. 2) Physical health – forced energy conservation and unreliable electricity generation will lead to forced reduction in heating and increased illness in the winter, the deadliest season. 3) Mental health – as discussed above, psychiatric and psychological communities are seeing many cases of what is called “climate distress,” “climate grief,” “climate anxiety” or “eco-anxiety.” See above discussion and links under Health, Energy, and Climate.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Science: Is the Sun Rising?
New Science: Clouds and Solar Cycles Play Role in Climate Change
By Graham Lloyd, The Australian, Via GWPF, July 15, 2019
“Michael Asten, adjunct senior research fellow at Monash University’s school of Earth atmosphere and environment, says scientists have barely scratched the surface of the task of recognising and modelling natural cycles of climate change.
“The association between cosmic ray activity and global climate is complex because the cosmic ray record tells us of energy reaching the top of Earth’s atmosphere.
“Global climate variations are the result of variations in cloud cover, atmospheric circulation patterns and ocean circulation patterns as well as the actual ¬luminosity of the sun.
“Asten says Svensmark’s explanation is not accepted by the vast majority of researchers, but in time his theory may well be seen as a seminal part of new insights into an incredibly complex set of sun-Earth-climate interactions.”
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
Journal criticised for study claiming sun is causing global warming
By Adam Vaughan, New Scientist, July 16, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
Paper in question: Oscillations of the baseline of solar magnetic field and solar irradiance on a millennial timescale
By V. V. Zharkova, S. J. Shepherd, S. I. Zharkov & E. Popova, Scientific Reports, June 24, 2019
Things Keep Getting Worse For The Fake “Science” Of Human-Caused Global Warming
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, July 12, 2019
Link to paper: Cloud Changes in the Period of Global Warming: the Results of the International Satellite Project
By Pokrovsky O.M, Russian State Hydrometeorological University, 2019
Link to second paper: “No Experimental Evidence for the Significant Anthropogenic Global Warming.”
By J. Kauppinen and P. Malmi, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph), Submitted June 29, 2019
Cosmic Ray Update: New Results from the Moon
By Tony Phillips, Space Weather, July 16, 2019
@JCU tries patience of judge at Peter Ridd firing penalty hearing – doesn’t go well
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, July 19, 2019
Link to media release, Institute of Public Affairs, Melbourne July 19, 2019
Peter Ridd update: James Cook University wasted $630,000 defending the Bureaucrat Rulers of Science, and plans to appeal
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 20, 2019
My flagged Tedx talk about climate change
By Marcel Crok, science writer, De Staat Van Het Klimaat, Accessed July 15, 2019 [H/t Climate Depot]
“NOTE FROM TED: We’ve flagged this talk, which was filmed at a TEDx event, because it appears to fall outside TEDx’s curatorial guidelines. The sweeping claims and assertions made in this talk regarding climate change only represent the views of the speaker and are not corroborated by scientific evidence.”
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
My new video – Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, July 14, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Recent Analysis & Conclusions
By Various participants, The Right Climate Stuff Research Team (TRSC), 2018-2019
Climate Alarmists Are A Threat To Our National Security (19 minutes)
By Hal Doiron, TRCS, Video uploaded by Jim Peacock, TRCS, March 16, 2018
From presentation to America First Energy Conference, Heartland Institute, Nov 9, 2017
Watch: Flashback 1990 CSPAN climate debate between Dr. Fred Singer & [Jeremy Leggett] Greenpeace
By Marc Morano, Climate Depot, July 17, 2019 (August 23, 1990)
Climate Change Claims meet the Scientific Method
By John R. Christy, The University of Alabama in Huntsville, Gulf Coast Association of Geological Societies Convention, Shreveport, Louisiana October 1, 2018
Climatologist Dr. Judith Curry: Climate Change is ‘not a clear and present danger’
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, July 16, 2019
Finnish Scientists: Effect of human activity on climate change insignificant
By Paul Kostner, Helsingki Times, Uusi Suomi, July 14, 2019
Previous paper: Major feedback factors and effects of the cloud cover and the relative humidity on the climate
By Jyrki Kauppinen, Pekka Malmi, Submitted Dec 30, 2018
The Science Is Quite Clear: Reducing CO2 Emissions Only Raises Energy Prices
By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, July 15, 2019
“The current hysteria promoted by climate alarmists concerning global warming is simply that–hysteria. If people want to worry about climate change, they should worry about future global cooling. Cold is the great danger that humans will eventually face, not a little warmth.”
Challenging the Orthodoxy – ICCC13
Late registration opportunity – Please join me in Washington D.C. on July 25th
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, July 18, 2019
Defending the Orthodoxy
Global Warming of 1.5 ºC
By Staff Writers, UN-IPCC, October 2018
Fourth National Climate Assessment
Volume II: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States
By Staff, US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP),
Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment
By Charney et al. Report of an Ad Hoc Study Group on Carbon Dioxide and Climate Woods Hole, Massachusetts, July 23-27, 1979, to the
Climate Research Board, Assembly of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, National Research Council
UCI study blithely calls for $100 trillion shutdown of fossil plants to meet Paris climate goals
Guest essay by Larry Hamlin, WUWT, July 18, 2019
Link to paper: Committed emissions from existing energy infrastructure jeopardize 1.5 °C climate target
By Dan Tong, et al., Nature, Preview, July 1, 2019
[SEPP Comment: The title of the essay is vague. UCI is the University of California, Irvine, where one of the authors, Steven Davis, is an “Earth systems scientist.”]
British MP Demands an End to Affordable Food, to Combat Obesity and Climate Change
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 18, 2019
Extinction Rebellion Want Permanent Recession
By Paul Homewood, Not a lot of People Know That, July 17, 2019
EPA Drilling Regulations Remain Underrated Obstacle to Solving Global Warming
By William Murray, R Street, July 15, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Doubt Mr. Murray understands the greenhouse effect. An unproven technology is hardly a solution.]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
The Global Warming Show — how’s it going to end?
By Russell Cook, American Thinker, July 18, 2019
Assessing the state of climate science today
Crude messaging from the left reveals their failure to advance politically correct climate science
By Anthony Sadar, Washington Times, July 16, 2019
It’s Not Really a Climate Thing: It’s about Control
By Clarice Feldman, American Thinker, July 14, 2019
You Don’t Need To Be A Scientist To Know That The Global Warming Alarm “Science” Is Fake
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, July 15, 2019
Global Warming Propaganda, With Cartoon
By John Hinderaker Power Line, July 18, 2019
Let’s Get Uncomfortable! Carbon Guilt Reaches A/C
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, July 15, 2019
A Sophomoric Look at Climate Change
By Gordon Wysong, American Thinker, July 16, 2019
Consistent Failure of Apocalyptic Warnings Hasn’t Stopped Climate Change Alarmism
By Nicolas Loris, CNS News, July 8, 2019
Climate Extremism: Democracy and Progress Are Facing Extinction
By Iain Martin, The Times, Via GPWF, July 19, 2019
Poland set to delay EU deal on 2050 ‘climate neutrality’ target
By Chloé Farand, Climate Home News, Euractiv, July 19, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
Change in US Administrations
USDA expected to lose two-thirds of research staff in move to Kansas City
By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, July 17, 2019
[SEPP Comment: After the completely botched report on agriculture in the Midwest suffering from warming by the USGCRP, perhaps the USDA should go to farm country to understand the competitors Midwest agriculture faces!]
Bureau of Land Management to move headquarters from DC to Colorado
By Miranda Green and Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, July 16, 2019
Trump officials gut DC staff as public lands agency preps to move out West
By Miranda Green and Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, July 16, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Moving the agency where the public lands are is bad?]
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
Alarmists Red-Faced As Satellite Image Analyses Show Globe Has Greened Markedly Over Past 4 Decades
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 13, 2019
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Von der Leyen pressed to deliver on climate after winning EU vote
By Chloé Farand, Climate Home News, July 17, 2019
“Putting carbon neutrality into law during first 100 days, a new “Just Transition Fund” or the nomination of two executive vice-presidents are some of the concessions listed by European Commission President nominee Ursula von der Leyen, according to the letters seen by Euractiv.”
Seeking a Common Ground
Bjorn Lomborg: Voters Reject Green Campaigners’ Extreme Climate Policies
By Bjorn Lomborg, The Daily Telegraph, Via GWPF, July 19, 2019
NASA Adds Events to Celebration of 50th Anniversary of Historic Moon Landing
By Sean Potter / Katherine Brown, NASA Headquarters, July 17, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Interactive Effects of Elevated CO2 and Drought on Carapa
Oliveira, M.F. and Marenco, R.A. 2019. Photosynthesis and biomass accumulation in Carapa surinamensis (Meliaceae) in response to water stress at ambient and elevated CO2. Photosynthetica 57: 137-146. July 19, 2019
Antarctic Krill Show Resilience to Ocean Acidification
Ericson, J.A., Hellessey, N., Kawaguchi, S., Nicol, S., Nichols, P.D., Hoem, N. and Virtue, P. 2018. Adult Antarctic krill proves resilient in a simulated high CO2 ocean. Communications Biology 1: 190, DOI: 10.1038/s42003-018-0195-3. July 18, 2019
The Mitigating Influence of Elevated CO2 on Nickel Oxide Toxicity
Saleh, A.M., Hassan, Y.M., Selim, S. and AbdElgawad, H. 2019. NiO-nanoparticles induce reduced phytotoxic hazards in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) grown under future climate CO2. Chemosphere 220: 1047-1057. July 17, 2019
The Different Outcomes of a Static vs. Fluctuating Seawater pCO2 Ocean Acidification Experiment
Jarrold, M.D., and Munday, P.L. 2019. Diel CO2 cycles and parental effects have similar benefits to growth of a coral reef fish under ocean acidification. Biology Letters 15: 20180724, http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2018.0724
July 15, 2019
Models v. Observations
Another Blow! Two New Studies Show Climate Models Have “Large Deficits” …Running “Too Hot”
Climate sensitivity and the warming pattern
By Die kalte Sonne, (German text translated/edited by P Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, July 17, 2019
Measurement Issues — Surface
NASA GISS Surface Station Temperature Trends Based On Sheer Guess Work, Made-Up Data, Says Japanese Climate Expert
By Kirye and Pierre Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 16, 2019
Anchorage “Record” Was Not Actually A Record!
By Paul Homewood, Not a lot of People Know That, July 14, 2019
“I have now had time to check through the NOAA data files, and have discovered that back in June 1931, the temperature actually reached 92F at Anchorage:”
[U.S. Department of Agriculture, Weather Bureau, Charles F. Marvin, Chief, Climatological Data]
July 18, 1936 – Hottest Day On Record In The Western US
By Tony Heller, The Deplorable Climate Science Blog, July 18, 2019
July 19, 1936 – Hottest Day On Record In Oklahoma
By Tony Heller, The Deplorable Climate Science Blog, July 19, 2019
No Evidence That Climate Change Causes Weather Extremes: (3) Hurricanes
By Ralph Alexander, Science Under Attack, July 15, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
The Strongest Summer Jet Stream to Hit the Pacific Northwest EVER!
By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, July 18, 2019
Debunked Claim: Early Season Hurricanes Increasing Because of Climate Change
Guest Post by Bob Vislocky, Ph.D., WUWT, July 14, 2019
Surprise JULY SNOW Falls In Poland… June Temperature Trends See No Rise Across Canada, Iceland
“Snow in July – this surprised everyone. We remember times when it fell in April or even in May, but not during summer vacation.”
By Kirye and P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 14, 2019
The Younger Dryas
By Staff, NOAA, National Centers for Environmental Information, Accessed July 18, 2019
More Government Regulation Won’t Save the Great Barrier Reef from Scientists — or Politicians. Oink.
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, July 16, 2019
Recent Sea Level Fall – Since When?
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, July 9, 2019
Rapidly Fluctuating India Sea Levels Were 4 m Higher Than Today 6000 Years Ago, 1.5 m Higher 500 Years Ago
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, July 18, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Question the estimates, may be largely due to tectonic movement.]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Icebreaker headed for North Pole turned back by thicker ice than expected
By Paul Homewood, Not a lot of People Know That, July 17, 2019
“The ice is up to three meters (almost 10 feet) thick in the middle of July, and not even the researchers’ long special-purpose chainsaws were able to penetrate the ice.”
Scientists Find Antarctica Is Rapidly Cooling And Any Ice Sheet Melt Is Not Due To CO2, But Natural
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, July 15, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Question the claim Antarctica is rapidly cooling. There has been a sudden drop in Antarctic sea ice.]
Super volcanic eruptions interrupt ozone recovery
By Staff Writers, Beijing, China (SPX), Jul 17, 2019
Link to paper: The Effect of Super Volcanic Eruptions on Ozone Depletion in a Chemistry-Climate Model
By Luyang XuKe Wei, Xue WuS. P. SmyshlyaevWen ChenV. Ya. Galin, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, July 3, 2019
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
The Nutrition Challenge
By Bjørn Lomborg,. Project Syndicate, July 18, 2019
Brazil’s Record Grain Harvest to Reach 240.7 Million Tons
By Staff, The Rio Times, Via GWPF, July 12, 2019
“The survey shows that the second crop corn should be one of the significant factors during the period, with a record production forecast of 72.4 million tons, an increase of 34.2 percent.”
The worst drought in history viewed through carbo-phobic glasses: ABC [Australian Broadcasting Company] misses the obvious
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 17, 2017
BBC Meet Extinction Rebellion–To Discuss Editorial Coverage
By Paul Homewood, Not a lot of People Know That, July 19, 2019
‘Doctor’ Hare’s Nasty Green Prescriptions
By Tony Thomas, Quadrant, April 29, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Review Maladies of Modernity: Scientism and the Deformation of Political Order
By Kimberly Hurd Hale, Voegelin View, July 6, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Making Up the Evidence
By Andrew Montford, GWPF, July 17, 2019
[SEPP Comment: DEFRA is a UK government entity, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs; The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) is an independent non-departmental public body, formed under the Climate Change Act to advise the United Kingdom and devolved Governments and Parliaments on tackling and preparing for climate change.]
Humanity’s climate ‘carbon budget’ dwindling fast
By Marlowe Hood, Paris (AFP) July 17, 2019
“But calculating exactly how much CO2 — produced mainly by burning fossil fuels but also deforestation — we can emit without busting through either of these limits has been deceptively hard to calculate.”
[SEPP Comment: A “Carbon Budget” of pure imagination.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
50% of Americans don’t want to spend even one more dollar on renewables
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 19, 2019
Link to poll: Who is willing to pay more for renewable energy?
By Matthew Goldberg, Seth Rosenthal, Abel Gustafson, John Kotcher, Edward Maibach, and Anthony Leiserowitz, George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication, July 15, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Suicide Crisis, Climate Propaganda
How can zero deaths be a ‘health emergency’?
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, July 15, 2019
Treat Extinction Rebellion as an extremist anarchist group, former anti-terror chief tells police
By Paul Homewood, Not a lot of People Know That, July 18, 2019
Questioning European Green
Gummer Stamps His Tiny Little Feet
While I was away last week, the Committee on Climate Change [CCC] were stamping their tiny collective feet, complaining that nobody was listening to them.
By Paul Homewood, Not a lot of People Know That, July 17, 2019
“Unfortunately, the CCC is established by law, under the Climate Change Act. But I see no reason why its wings cannot be clipped and funding drastically reduced.”
Does renewables pioneer Germany risk running out of power?
By Vera Eckert, Reuters, July 18, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
“Fabian Joas, energy expert at Berlin think-tank Agora, said it would be a difficult road for most of Europe to meet its goal of abandoning conventional energy in coming decades.
“’But we will be able in the long run to operate a power system based nearly fully on renewables,” he added. “Everyone who understands the matter agrees on that.’”
[SEPP Comment: Apparently anyone who asks how can wind and solar generate electricity during a cold, still winter night “just doesn’t understand.”]
‘Rank hypocrisy’ of climate change staff: How government mandarins flew to Edinburgh, Turin and Bonn while urging the public to cut emissions
By James Heale, Sunday Mail, UK, July 13, 2019
Questioning Green Elsewhere
How Each Country Contributed to the Explosion in Energy Consumption
By Lauren Leatherby and Chris Martin, Bloomberg, July 9, 2019 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
“China overtook the U.S. as the world’s largest energy consumer a decade ago. Cheap and dirty coal plants proliferated there, spewing so much soot that the sun was clouded out and cities were choking by the early 1990s.”
[SEPP Comment: How much of the soot in China came from domestic heating and cooking and how much from coal-fired power plants? With prosperity, China is replacing leaky coal-fired power plants with ones more advanced than in the US. Comparing Chinese cities of the 1990s with today is similar to comparing 1920s Pittsburg with today. Domestic heating and cooking remain a problem. China may become the largest importer of US natural gas to solve that problem.]
Sustainability and Global Warming Give Birth to Renewable Energy
By Norman Rogers, American Thinker, July 19, 2019
The four noisy horseladies of the Apocalypse
By Wesley Pruden, Washington Times, July 15, 2019
The Climate Curse: Reprogramming Our Moral Compass
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, July 17, 2019
This Economic Theory Could Be Used To Pay For The Green New Deal
By Scott Horsley, NPR, July 17, 2019
“’If Congress authorizes a few billion dollars of additional spending, or a few hundred billion dollars, then the Fed’s job is to make sure that those checks don’t bounce,’ Kelton told NPR.”
[SEPP Comment: As the people of the former Soviet Union, Cuba, or Venezuela can attest how it worked for them.]
The Political Games Continue
As Tom Steyer Enters 2020 Race, Climate Activists Shrug: ‘I Really Don’t Get It, Man’
The billionaire activist, who championed the fight against the Keystone XL pipeline, surprised many when he joined a crowded Democratic field this week
By Alexander Kaufman, HuffPost, July 12, 2019 [H/t Cooler Heads]
Capitalism as Seen by the Left: “The Age of Enron”
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, July 16, 2019
[SEPP Comment” I believe in free markets as long as I can manipulate them!]
Climate Crisis Committee to Hold First Field Hearing in Boulder, Colorado
The science is in. We know the cause.
Burning fossil fuels and destroying tropical forests are driving the climate crisis.
Press Release by Staff, House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis July 15, 2019
Democrats, scientists slam Trump administration actions on scientific boards
By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, July 16, 2019
Bloomberg Program Obfuscates Its Influence Over State Attorneys General
By Spencer Walrath, Energy in Depth, July 10, 2019
Courtrooms turned over to hundreds of Extinction Rebellion cases
After protests which brought London to a standstill, two courts will set aside specific days to try cases involving activists.
By Staff, Sky News, July 11, 2019
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
UEA Professor Calls For Higher Motoring Taxes
By Paul Homewood, Not a lot of People Know That, July 17, 2019
“’Dr Phil Williamson, a climate scientist at the University of East Anglia in Norwich points to the decision to allow fracking in parts of England and the current consultation on plans to build a controversial third runway at Heathrow as factors that contradict the Government’s pledge to cut greenhouse gas emissions.’”
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA’s New ACE Rule: A Win for Common Sense
By Michelle Bloodworth, Real Clear Energy, July 17, 2019
Energy Issues – Non-US
China’s LNG Imports Spark Security Debate
An analysis by Michael Lelyveld, Radio Free Asia, July 15, 2019
“Analysts are divided on the degree of China’s risks from its growing reliance on imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as threats to shipping from the Persian Gulf grow.”
Energy Issues – Australia
Australia to become world’s biggest dealer in fossil fuel emissions
By Michael Mazengarb, Sask News, July 8, 2019 [H/t Dennis Ambler]
“If Adani’s mine and all the other coal mines proposed for the region reach full production by 2030, the Galilee Basin on its own could account for up to 5.45 per cent of global climate pollution in 2030.”
Energy Issues — US
A Funny Thing Happened On the Way to Renewables “Crushing” Natural Gas
Guest Excelling by David Middleton, WUWT, July 18, 2019
“Who else is surprised by the fact that the capital costs for Natural Gas Advanced Combined Cycle have been cut in half since 2014?”
Levelized Cost and Levelized Avoided Cost of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2019
By Staff USEIA, February 2019
Assessing the Economic Value of New Utility-Scale Renewable Generation Projects Using Levelized Cost of Electricity and Levelized Avoided Cost of Electricity
By Staff, EIA, July 25, No Year
Assessing the Economic Value of New Utility-Scale Electricity Generation Projects
By Staff, EIA, July 2013
Levelized Cost of Electricity and Levelized Avoided Cost of Electricity Methodology Supplement
By Staff, EIA, July 2013
Levelized Avoided Cost of Electricity
“LACE = ∑ (marginal generation pricet dispatched hourst) + (cap payment cap credit) Y t = 1 annual expected generation hour.”
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
9 Things To Know About The Booming Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market
By Jude Clemente, Forbes, July 12, 2019
Link to report: The GIIGNL Annual report, 2019
By Staff, GIIGNL, 2019
David Staples: Oil industry takes fierce aim at foreign-funded anti-oil activists
David Staples, Edmonton Journal, Can, March 1, 2019
Oil markets will see another glut in 2020, IEA predicts
By Sam Meredith, CNBC, July 12, 2019
U.S., China will be world’s biggest LNG exporter and importer in 2024: IEA
By Staff, Reuters, July 16, 2019
U.S. Increases Dominance In Natural Gas, Produces More Than Entire Middle East
By Robert Rapier, Oil Price.com, July 10, 2019
Oil Spills, Gas Leaks & Consequences
Deepwater Horizon most litigated environmental issue of past decade, report finds
By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, July 16, 2019
Nuclear Energy and Fears
The One Viable Solution To Climate Change
By Steve Denning, Forbes, July 12, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
NREL Energy Storage System Cost Benchmark
Guest post by Roger Caiazza, WUWT, July 18, 2019
Link to study: 2018 U.S. Utility-Scale Photovoltaics Plus-Energy Storage System Costs Benchmark
By Fu, Remo, and Margolis, NREL, November 2018
[SEPP Comment: According to the EIA, for service starting 2023, the levelized cost of a combined cycle natural gas power plant is $42.8/MWh with a capacity factor of 87%. The estimates include the estimated cost of fuel and O&M. The cost of onshore wind is $42.8/MWh with a capacity factor of 44% (highly doubtful) reduced by a levelized tax credit of $6.1/MWh. It would be cheaper to build 2 combined cycle gas power plants producing 87% of the time each, than a wind plant with needed backup lasting only a few hours.
Former Greens leader Bob Brown campaigns against wind farm
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 15, 2019
When Even Bob Brown Gets It …
By Alan Moran, Quadrant, July 19, 2019
New York awards country’s largest offshore wind energy contracts
By Miranda Green, The Hill, July 28, 2019
[SEPP Comment: How many tons of concrete and steel will this “clean energy source” require?]
Why Planting Flowers under Solar Panels Won’t Make Solar Work
By Norman Rogers, American Thinker, July 16, 2019
Health, Energy, and Climate
‘Climate Grief’: Fears About The Planet’s Future Weigh On Americans’ Mental Health
By Victoria Knight, Kaiser Health News, July 18, 2019 [H/t Charles the moderator]
More People Die In Winter Than Summer
By Alex Berezow, ACSH, July 10, 2019
Link to data: QuickStats: Average Daily Number of Deaths,* by Month — United States, 2017
By Jiaquan Xu, MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2019;68:593. DOI: , July 5, 2019
Friday Funny – @NRDC Now it’s toilet paper causing ‘climate change’
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, July 19, 2019
Other Scientific News
A New Plan for Keeping NASA’s Oldest Explorers Going
By Calla Cofield, NASA/JPL-Caltech, July 12, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
Other links on Voyager
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
2019 Climate “Ship Of Fools” Runs Into 3-Meter Thick Ice… Baffin Inlets Mid Summer Ice Extent No Trend in 50 Years
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 19, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Have they tried it in winter?]
1. Now It’s a Climate ‘Emergency’
Democrats are ready to use Trump’s precedent for their own purposes.
Editorial, WSJ, July 14, 2019
SUMMARY: In discussing that “emergency funding” cuts both ways, the editorial states:
“When President Trump declared a national ‘emergency’ in February to take money from the Pentagon to build his border wall, these columns warned he was setting a precedent that Democrats would exploit. Well, that day has arrived, as Democrats last week introduced a resolution in Congress declaring a national emergency due to climate change.
“Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez introduced a joint resolution declaring that the climate Apocalypse is nigh, and demanding ‘a national, social, industrial, and economic mobilization of the resources and labor of the United States at a massive-scale.’ Some commentators are calling the resolution ‘symbolic,’ noting a contradictory provision that reads ‘nothing in this concurrent resolution constitutes a declaration of a national emergency for purposes of . . . any special or extraordinary power.’
“Yet Oregon Representative Earl Blumenauer, who also introduced it, made his inspiration clear. ‘The national emergency is not the border, it’s the climate,’ Mr. Blumenauer said on a press call. A Sanders spokesperson also drew the comparison, noting that, in contrast to Mr. Trump’s ‘phony national emergencies,’ the Sanders resolution addresses a genuine ‘existential’ threat.”
After discussing that the claims are political posturing for the 2020 election, the editorial states:
“The good news is the federal judiciary might check this trend. Mr. Trump was angry that Congress wouldn’t give him more than $1.38 billion in wall funding and used his emergency declaration to reallocate several billion more dollars for the wall. But this was a stretch of executive power that even a dozen Senate Republicans voted to overturn.
“Federal Judge Haywood Gilliam has twice blocked the use of other funds to build the wall. In a May ruling he noted that Congress had repeatedly refused to appropriate more funds for the wall, and that the Legislature retains ‘‘absolute’ control over federal expenditures—even when that control may frustrate the desires of the executive branch.’ He recognized the Administration’s ‘strong interest in border security’ but, absent statutory authority to reprogram defense dollars, the executive’s argument boiled down to ‘the ends justify the means.’
“The Trump Administration is appealing, and the legal merits are debatable given the ambiguity of ‘emergency’ in the law. But conservatives who applaud Mr. Trump’s run around Congress should think again. Progressives will exploit the precedent for their own purposes.”
2. Trump’s Foes Are Crazier Than He Is
Both parties have lost their heads, but radical left-wing policies are worse than intemperate tweets.
By Bobby Jindal, WSJ, July 15, 2019
SUMMARY: The former Republican governor of Louisiana was a presidential candidate in 2016 writes:
“The political world has gone absolutely crazy. America has seen event after event that broke every precedent and seemed to set a new standard that couldn’t be surpassed—until it quickly was. Perhaps it started with the 1992 presidential campaign, when Bill Clinton brazenly refused to quit in the face of sex scandals that would normally end a career. This was followed by his impeachment, the 5-4 ruling in Bush v. Gore, Jim Jeffords flipping parties and the Senate, Chief Justice John Roberts changing his vote to secure a 5-4 ruling that saved ObamaCare, and Justice Anthony Kennedy’s 5-4 opinion establishing same-sex marriage nationwide. All these were remarkable, once-in-a-generation events. Yet American politics descended into a new level of crazy during the 2016 presidential campaign.
“Politics seem more chaotic, polarized and extreme than ever. There is seemingly no time to rest between the Kavanaugh hearings, the border crisis, multiple trade wars, efforts to repeal ObamaCare, debates around foreign interference in elections, and the ever-present threat of another government shutdown or debt-ceiling cliff. The people in charge often look nothing like responsible adults.
“Liberals, including the mainstream media, still can’t believe that Donald Trump emerged victorious from a crowded Republican primary, much less beat Hillary Clinton, who personified the political establishment. Hers was the perfect résumé: Ivy League-educated attorney, first lady, U.S. senator and secretary of state. She was safe and predictable; boringness was a virtue in contrast with the bombastic New York developer who had never before mounted a serious run for office. She was a Democrat comfortable speaking to and being paid by Goldman Sachs and other big corporations. She offered to shatter the glass ceiling without threatening the profitable status quo of media, business and government elites.
“Mr. Trump’s penchant for personal attacks and undisciplined tweets drives even some of his supporters crazy. They wonder if he is his own worst enemy and hope he doesn’t sabotage his success. Yet many more supporters wanted a disruptive force and view his unorthodox behavior as a positive feature rather than an unfortunate price to pay for conservative judges and lower taxes. Both groups agree the craziness on the Republican side lies in the president’s personality and ego and not in his policies, which are working well in many cases.
Mr. Jindal discusses that for the most part Mr. Trump has taken Republican positions for most policies, he mentions exceptions such as isolation and protectionism in which Trump has received support from Democrats. Jindal continues:
“The craziness on the Democratic side lies in its leaders’ policies and the plan they want to impose on America. The party’s inability to condemn anti-Semitism with a unified voice and the current debate on whether America owes reparations to African-Americans and Native Americans are the tip of the iceberg. Democrats like Elizabeth Warren favor a steep wealth tax, even as Europe is largely abandoning such schemes. Others want to abolish the Electoral College and pack the Supreme Court.
“Whereas President Obama realized fully government-run health-care was too radical for the American people, many in his party now believe the problem with ObamaCare was that it forced too few people off plans they liked. The misnamed Medicare for All would cost more than $30 trillion and force almost 200 million Americans off private health insurance. Howard Schultz and Michael Bloomberg, previously lauded as progressive billionaires, are now seen by Democratic activists as compromised for daring to question such fiscal insanity.
“The Green New Deal dwarfs Medicare for All in potential cost and damage to the economy. Its supporters aim to do more than merely eliminate the use of oil, gas, coal and nuclear power—they aspire to rid the country of commercial airline travel and flatulent cows, retrofit every building, and provide a universal federal guarantee of economic security even to those ‘unwilling to work.’ ‘Socialism’ has gone from an epithet used by Republicans to discredit Democrats to a title some of them wear proudly. Beto O’Rourke has been labeled a centrist in the presidential primary and is unacceptable to many progressive activists in part due to his previously unremarkable claim to be a ‘capitalist.’
_“Most Americans aren’t eager to embrace either party’s craziness, but sensible swing voters should prefer the Republican version. The disruptive force of nature currently occupying the White House will eventually pass from the scene, and his unique mannerisms with him. The damage being done to the Democratic Party is much more substantial and will last longer. While Mrs. Clinton made the mistake of telling voters how she actually felt when she labeled Trump supporters ‘deplorables,’ the Democratic Party is now embracing policies that vividly show how little they value these same blue-collar and rural workers, people of faith and gun owners. Now that’s crazy.