The Week That Was: September 21, 2019

Brought to You by The Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Quote of the Week
_ “When in doubt, always tell the truth. It will confuse your enemies and astound your friends!” —Mark Twain [H/t Will Happer]

Number of the Week: 250 Outlets

THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Climate Model Inflation: According to the “Centre national de la recherche scientifique”, a French government entity billed as the largest governmental research organisation in France and the largest fundamental science agency in Europe, climate models have been underestimating the worst case for an increase in temperatures from a doubling of carbon dioxide (CO2). In a news release it announced:

“The international climate science community is undertaking an extensive programme of numerical simulations of past and future climates. Its conclusions will contribute significantly to part one of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, which is expected to be published in 2021. The French scientists involved in the work, in particular at the CNRS, the CEA and Météo-France, were the first to submit their contributions, and they have now revealed the broad outlines of their findings. Specifically, their new models predict that warming by 2100 will be more severe than forecast in earlier versions. They are also making progress in describing climate at the regional level.

“French scientists working together in the CLIMERI-France2 platform participated in the World Climate Research Programme (CMIP6)3 using two climate models, one developed by the CNRM4 together with CERFACS5, and the other at the IPSL6. CMIP6 brings together over twenty climate centres around the world that have developed some thirty models.

“Simulations with the two new French models, as well as with models from other countries that are already available, predict that by 2100 warming will be more severe than that forecast in previous versions in 2012, especially for the most pessimistic emission scenarios. This could be explained by a more pronounced climate response to the increase in human-induced greenhouse gases than in the 2012 simulations. However, the reasons for this increased sensitivity and the degree of confidence to be attributed have yet to be assessed.

“In the most pessimistic scenario (SSP5 8.5 – rapid economic growth driven by fossil fuels), the rise in mean global temperature is likely to reach 6 to 7 °C by 2100, which is 1 °C higher than in previous estimates. Only one of the socio-economic scenarios (SSP1 1.9 – marked by strong international cooperation and giving priority to sustainable development) enables temperatures to remain below the 2°C global warming target, at the cost of very significant mitigation efforts and of temporarily exceeding this target during the course of the century.”_ [Boldface added. Note that the temperatures are expressed relative to pre-industrial temperatures and that 6 to 7 °C by 2100 converts to roughly 11 to 13 °F.]

Based on atmospheric temperature tends, the models overestimate past warming. How is it that they now underestimate future warming?

No doubt politicians and the press will emphasize this scenario, which has no basis in hard evidence. Experimental evidence shows the relationship between CO2 and temperature is logarithmic. A doubling of the current value of 400 parts per million (ppm) of CO2 in the atmosphere to 800 ppm would require enormous amounts of fossil fuels. Observations and calculations show that a doubling of greenhouse gases such as CO2 and a modest increase in water vapor corresponding to the observed rise in temperatures in the atmosphere may increase temperatures by 1 to 1.5 °C (2 to 3 °F).

The physical explanation for this sudden increase projected by the French models may be a stronger positive feedback from increased atmospheric water vapor than the feedback speculated in the 1979 Charney Report. But that Charney feedback warming is yet to be found in the atmosphere, much less a stronger one.

It appears the only justification for this sudden change is based on model simulations, which can be meaningless. For example, in the mid-1970s the US government produced models used to claim the US would run out of oil and natural gas at the end of the 20th century. Almost 20 years after models projected it would run out of oil and gas, the US is a leading producer of oil and natural gas. One can run as many simulations of such models as one wishes, but model simulations will not stop US oil and gas production.

The scientific method is based on repeated testing of assumptions (hypotheses) against physical evidence gathered by physical experiments or rigorous observations. It appears that the French climate modelers are completely abandoning the scientific method for something beyond normal science. It will be interesting whether US climate modelers go along, including the National Science Foundation’s NCAR, NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, and NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Will they abandon the scientific method for something beyond normal science? If so, they will demonstrate they are not scientific organizations serving the interests of the American public. See links under Model Issues

Climate Propaganda Week: This week there will be numerous activities to celebrate the “fight against climate change” headed by the United Nations. Global temperatures been changing for hundreds of millions of years and atmospheric carbon dioxide has changed for hundreds of millions of years. But there is no strong relationship. However, the UN is proclaiming it can stabilize temperatures by controlling CO2 emissions. For evidence, the UN offers the results of speculative global climate models that fail basic tests on their ability to predict temperature trends in the atmosphere where the greenhouse effect occurs.

The week was preceded by children’s climate marches in many cities globally on September 20. The attendance was not impressive. In the US, more people attend football games on a fall Saturday or Sunday than appeared at the global climate marches on Friday.

The UN is making a major push to promote fear of CO2, and its motive is becoming transparent: $100 Billion per year into the Green Climate Fund that it controls. This will give the UN enormous financial control around the world. It has long desired independent sources of funding, without a need to justify its actions to national governments. The Green Climate Fund would deliver what the UN desires, but the UN is yet to show it is worthy. Certainly, its politically charged summaries of reports do not motivate the general public as the UN may have expected, As discussed above, the science is becoming increasingly poor.

Increasingly, the UN seems to be relying on the young, particularly a blond girl with Nordic features and pigtails. This may invoke motherly instincts in some, but not in others such as Mr. Trump. Through its efforts, the UN is lowering its standards as an international organization of professionals. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy, Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children, and Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda.

Drone Attack — Resilience: Last week, two major oil fields in Saudi Arabia where hit by drones, which knocked out about 50% of its total production. Ten years ago, such an event would have caused a major spike in oil and gasoline prices and inflamed the world press, particularly in the US. But any alarm quickly died down.

Today, there is no shortage of oil world-wide. The US and Russia can expand if needed and Canada has enormous resources it needs to get to refineries. Also, the Saudis appear to have the ability to adjust to the damage quickly. This reliance demonstrates that although oil remains a critical resource, it is not subject to a major disruption from one incident. A main reason is that the independent oil producers involved in shale production in the US have a major impact in the world oil markets. Through competitive pressures against each other and the major producers, they have become a major influence for resilience and stable oil markets. All too often a competitive market is considered an unstable one, yet the opposite may be more correct. Interestingly, the Wall Street Journal had contradicting articles on the lasting importance of the drone strike. See Article # 2 and links under Energy Issues – Non-US.

Threatened Oceans: Australia’s Great Barrier Reef (GBR) has been frequently used as an example by those who claim that human-caused ocean warming or acidification is causing great damage to the world’s oceans. Certainly, human-caused sediment is a problem, but that is neither warming nor acidification. The recent incident involving Peter Ridd and James Cook University underlines the need for marine biologists to base their findings on rigorous application of the scientific method.

Walter Starck is a University of Miami marine biologist who spent much of his 40-year plus career studying coral reefs and marine fishery ecosystems. He has been involved with several technological developments used in diving and the study of reefs. He writes:

“While ‘quality control’ may be a useful generic label for this issue, it does not convey to the non-scientist the actual nature of the problem and few have any understanding of what constitutes quality science. In addition to replication, some other things of particular relevance to GBR research may be worth mentioning:

1. Ignoring of conflicting evidence
2. Misleading confidence levels and ignored uncertainties
3. Selective use of data
4. Improper employment of statistical methods
5. Use of unvalidated modelling as evidence
6. Undisclosed adjustments to data
7. Provably false claims left unaddressed even when brought to attention.

Sound policy-making demands the establishment of some mechanism to provide decision makers with a well-informed critical assessment of the science on which they rely. The current approach of presenting advocacy only, bolstered by claims of authority and consensus with no mention of uncertainty or conflicting evidence is simply not good enough for either decision making or even to be accepted as valid science.”

Starck’s history of the controversies concerning the Great Barrier Reef, which started 50 years ago with an outbreak of crown-of-thorns starfish eating coral on the reef, is a caution to those who believe exaggerations such as “this never happened before.” See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

Censorship: In time for Climate Propaganda Week, the Australian publication “The Conversation”, claiming to provide scientific rigor with a journalistic flair, announced it is joining 170 media outlets in an initiative called Covering Climate Now. “The Conversation” stated:

“Climate change deniers are dangerous – they don’t deserve a place on our site.”

The effort is spearheaded by the Columbia Journalism Review and The Nation. The mission statement at the Columbia Journalism Review (CJR) states:

“CJR’s mission is to be the intellectual leader in the rapidly changing world of journalism. It is the most respected voice on press criticism, and it shapes the ideas that make media leaders and journalists smarter about their work. Through its fast-turn analysis and deep reporting, CJR is an essential venue not just for journalists, but also for the thousands of professionals in communications, technology, academia, and other fields reliant on solid media industry knowledge.

What constitutes knowledge in the media industry remains an unknown. At least, the CJR states its major funders. “Covering Climate Now” appears to be little more than an effort to establish a political movement with editorials such as “Turning newspapers into climate-change art” and articles on the “Climate Crisis.” See links under Censorship and
https://www.cjr.org/covering_climat…

NBC Confessions: NBC News has a new website titled “Climate Confessions.” It states:

“Even those who care deeply about the planet’s future can slip up now and then. Tell us: Where do you fall short in preventing climate change? Do you blast the A/C? Throw out half your lunch? Grill a steak every week? Share your anonymous confession with NBC News.”

There is a link where one can write a confession and where one can view the confessions of others. One may be tempted to think this is like religious confessions, such as those with the Catholic Church. But those confessions are in strict privacy between the priest and the person confessing. The public viewing of NBC’s confessions makes them appear closer to public confessions in China during the reign of Mao. See links under Expanding the Orthodoxy.

Number of the Week: 250 Outlets. According to the “Covering Climate Now” website, 250 news outlets have signed up for its political effort. It is interesting to speculate how many outlets will ignore news that contradicts the claims of the climate establishment. We are in a brave new world. At least, some outlets are becoming obvious about their biases rather than subtle. See links under Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda.

NEWS YOU CAN USE:

Censorship

Climate change deniers are dangerous – they don’t deserve a place on our site
By Misha Ketchell, The Conversation, Sep 16, 2019 [H/t Mark Albright]
https://theconversation.com/climate…

“The Conversation” gives up conversing, admits defeat on climate, bans all skeptical scientists from commenting!
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 18, 2019
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/09/th…

Under seige: The Conversation pulls the weak “trust your doctor or Climate God” excuse
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 19, 2019
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/09/un…

Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
https://www.heartland.org/media-lib…
Summary:
http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/…

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.or…
Summary:
https://www.heartland.org/media-lib…

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr…
Download with no charge:
http://climatechangereconsidered.or…

Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.or…
Download with no charge:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-do…

Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/ni…

Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
https://www.heartland.org/_template…

Challenging the Orthodoxy

Wrong Again: 50 Years of Failed Eco-pocalyptic Predictions
By Myron Ebell, Steven Millloy, CEI, Sep 18, 2019 [H/t Paul DeWitt]
https://cei.org/blog/wrong-again-50…

Apocalypse not! Proof that climate predictions are always wrong
‘None of the apocalyptic predictions with due dates as of today have come true’
By Staff, WND, Sep 18, 2019 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.wnd.com/2019/09/always-…

Is the “climate crisis” a cruel hoax or tragic blunder?
By David Wojick, CFACT, Sep 18, 2019
https://www.cfact.org/2019/09/18/is…
[SEPP Comment: It is neither. It is an honest assumption (guess) becoming a dishonest claim of fact.]

Reef Alarmists Find What They Need to Find
By Walter Starck, Quadrant, Sep 20, 2019
https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doo…

Scientist’s Confession: Climate “Models Have “Serious Flaws”… Confident Others Will Speak Up On “Fraudulent Claims”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 14, 2019
https://notrickszone.com/2019/09/14…

The Epidemiologist (P-value + Ecological) Fallacy Exposed (Video)
Video, By William Briggs, His Blog, Sep 18, 2019 [H/t John Dunn]
https://wmbriggs.com/post/28123/…

If Sir David King is scared about global warming, we needn’t worry
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, WUWT, Sep 17, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09…

Defending the Orthodoxy

The hard truths of climate change — by the numbers
A set of troubling charts shows how little progress nations have made toward limiting greenhouse-gas emissions.
By Jeff Tollefson, Nature, Sep 18, 2019 [H/t Dennis Ambler]
https://www.nature.com/immersive/d4…

UN De-platforms the USA at the New York Climate Summit
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 19, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09…

New UN report launched to help ratchet up action to combat climate crisis
By Staff, UN News, Sep 18, 2019 [H/t Dennis Amber]
https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/0…

Over next two weeks, New York global epicenter of climate fight
By Issam Ahmed, New York (AFP) Sept 17, 2019
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/O…

UN climate roadshow opening in NYC
By Craig Rucker, CFACT, Sep 18, 2019
https://www.cfact.org/2019/09/18/un…

World must adapt to ‘inevitable’ climate change, warns report
By Marlowe Hood and Sijia Li in Beijing, Paris (AFP), Sept 10, 2019 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
https://www.afp.com/en/news/3954/wo…
Link to Report: Adapt Now: A Global Call For Leadership on Climate Relilience
By Staff: Global Commission on Adaptation, 2019
https://cdn.gca.org/assets/2019-09/…
“Spending $1.8 trillion across five key areas over the next decade would not only help buffer the worst impacts of global warming but could generate more than $7 trillion in net benefits, the report from the Global Commission on Adaptation argued.”

Cutting air pollution would not cause ‘near-term spike’ in global warming
By Robert McSweeney, Carbon Brief, Sep 18, 2019
https://www.carbonbrief.org/cutting…

Climate and air-quality benefits of a realistic phase-out of fossil fuels
By Drew Shindell and Christopher Smith, Nature, Sep 18, 2019
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41…

Scientists, students, activists plan global strike ahead of UN climate summit
By Brooks Hays, Washington (UPI), Sep 13, 2019
http://mail.haapala.com/interface/r…

Hundreds of thousands turn out in New York, other major cities for climate marches
By John Bowden, The Hill, Sep 20, 2019
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-e…
“Berlin and New York each had crowds estimated at more than 100,000,…”

Climate Activists Plan To Bring Traffic To A Standstill In D.C.
By Rachel Sadon, DCist, Sep 12, 2019
https://dcist.com/story/19/09/12/cl…

Questioning the Orthodoxy

Relax, We’ve Already Seen the Worst of Global Warming
By Peter Smith, Quadrant, Sep 16, 2019
https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doo…
[SEPP Comment: Doubling CO2 from 400 parts per million would require an enormous amount of fossil fuels.]

An Evaluation of Misleading Media Stories
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Sep 17, 2019
https://ddears.com/2019/09/17/an-ev…

Economist Lomborg: Climate Fear “Result Of 3 Decades Of Alarmist Rhetoric Based On Exaggerations And Lies”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 18, 2019
https://notrickszone.com/2019/09/18…

It was a Global Climate Picnic Day: Go on — Show us you mean it guys — cut the cord to the coal fired grid
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 21, 2019
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/09/gl…

New Video: The Climate Prophets
By Tony Heller, Real Climate Science, Sep 20, 2019
https://realclimatescience.com/2019…
[SEPP Comment: Iowa: Which is evidence – observations, or results from models used in the US National Climate Assessment?]

Board of Supervisors: Albemarle County
Guest post by Charles G. Battig, M.D., WUWT, Sep 16, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09…

After Paris!

China and India demand cash for climate action on eve of UN summit
By Chloé Farand, Climate Home News, Sep 17, 2019
https://www.climatechangenews.com/2…
“But in separate statements published on Tuesday, the world’s first and fourth largest emitters put the onus on rich countries to fulfil their commitments to mobilise $100 billion per year by 2020 for developing countries to cope with the impacts of climate change.”

China plans 226 GW of new coal power projects: Environmental groups
By Staff, Reuters, Sep 19, 2019
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/e…
“The new China projects would be more than Germany’s existing installed power capacity of around 200 GW by the end of 2018.”

Change in US Administrations

Embrace the ‘New American Energy Era’
By Rick Perry, Energy Secretary, The Washington Times, Sep 9, 2019
https://www.washingtontimes.com/new…

Problems in the Orthodoxy

Coal-fired powering up in China, south Asia
By Staff, Power Engineering, Sep 18, 2019
https://www.power-eng.com/2019/09/1…

Coal Is Fueling China’s Data Center Boom
By Haley Zaremba, Oil Price.com, Sep 14, 2019
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/Co…

Climate Concerned India’s Coal Imports Surging
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 18, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09…

Seeking a Common Ground

Realistic Glossary of Terms for the Climate Crisis/Climate Emergency
By Bob Tisdale, WUWT, Sep 19, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09…

Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science

Elevated CO2 Improves the Nitrogen Resorption Efficiency of Red Maple
Li, L., Manning, W. and Wang, X. 2019. Elevated CO2 increases root mass and leaf nitrogen resorption in red maple (Acer rubrum L.). Forests 10: 420; doi:10.3390/f10050420. Sep 20, 2019
http://www.co2science.org/articles/…

Nearly Five Centuries of Streamflow for the Southern Tibetan Plateau
Chen, F., Shang, H., Panyushkina, I.P., Meko, D.M., Yu, S., Yuan, Y. and Chen, F. 2019. Tree-ring reconstruction of Lhasa River streamflow reveals 472 years of hydrologic change on southern Tibetan Plateau. Journal of Hydrology 572: 169-178. Sep 19, 2019
http://www.co2science.org/articles/…

Elevated CO2 and Nitrogen Supply Both Improve Soybean Seed Yield
Lenka, N.K., Lenka, S., Singh, K.K., Kumar, A., Aher, S.B., Yashona, D.S., Dey, P., Agrawal, P.K., Biswas, A.K. and Patra, A.K. 2019. Effect of elevated carbon dioxide on growth, nutrient partitioning, and uptake of major nutrients by soybean under varied nitrogen application levels. Journal of Plant Nutrition and Soil Science 182: 509-514. Sep 18, 2019
http://www.co2science.org/articles/…

CO2-induced Remobilization of Phosphorus in Rice
Zhu, X.F., Zhang, X.L., Dong, X.Y. and Shen, R.F. 2019. Carbon dioxide improves phosphorus nutrition by facilitating the remobilization of phosphorus from the shoot cell wall in rice (Oryza sativa). Frontiers in Plant Science 10: 665, doi: 10.3389/fpls.2019.00665. Sep 16, 2019
http://www.co2science.org/articles/…

Models v. Observations

The Weather Outlook for the Rest of the Fall and Winter [For US Pacific Northwest]
By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Sep 18, 2019
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019…
“The question many of you are asking is: what kind of winter do we expect?
“The question you should also be asking: do such forecasts have much skill?”

Model Issues

Flat Earth Society: Climate Model Division
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 18, 2019
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/…
Link to paper: A round Earth for climate models
By Michael J. Prather and Juno C. Hsu, PNAS, Sep 9, 2019
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/…

Climate models predict bigger heat rise ahead
By Alex Kirby, Climate News Network, September 18th, 2019 [H/t Myron Ebell]
https://climatenewsnetwork.net/clim…
Link to report: Two French climate models consistently predict a pronounced global warming
News Release by staff, CNRS, Sep 17, 2019
https://www.alphagalileo.org/en-gb/…
[SEPP Comment: Compounding the imaginary.]

How error propagation works with differential equations (and GCMs)
Guest post by Nick Stokes, WUWT, Sep 16, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09…

Emulation, ±4 W/m² Long Wave Cloud Forcing Error, and Meaning
Guest post by Pat Frank, WUWT, Sep 19, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09…

Lack of Reliable Climate Change Predictions
By Staff, Martin-Luther-Universität Halle-Wittenberg, Via GWPF, Sep 19, 2019
https://www.thegwpf.com/lack-of-rel…
Link to paper: We need more realistic climate change experiments for understanding ecosystems of the future
By Lotte Korell, et al., Global Change Biology, Aug 14, 2019
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi…
[SEPP Comment: Question the statement: “The facts that climate change is man-made and that it will alter ecosystems are indisputable.” Climate changed long before man existed.]

Measurement Issues — Surface

Hurricane Dorian Winds Of 185 MPH Don’t Stand Up To Scrutiny
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 16, 2019
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wor…

The Northern Hemisphere just had its warmest summer on record
By Andrew Freedman, The Washington Post, Via Seattle Pi, Sep 16, 2019
https://www.seattlepi.com/news/arti…

GOLDSTEIN: Feds scrapped 100 years of data on climate change (Canada)
By Lorrie Goldstein, The Provence, Sep 17, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
https://theprovince.com/opinion/col…
“These computer simulations are part of the federal government’s ClimateData.ca website launched by Environment Minister Catherine McKenna on Aug. 15.”
“McKenna, during a recent visit to Toronto, blamed flooding at the south end of the Don Valley Parkway on man-made climate change.
“Except that area has been flooding since the glaciers retreated 12,000 years ago, long before industrial greenhouse gas emissions existed.”

Climate Emergency Tour: Sudbury edition
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 18, 2019
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/…
“For our readers in Sudbury, we regret to inform you that the climate emergency seems to have passed you by.”

Changing Weather

The Bahamas and the Caribbean Have Withstood Hurricanes for Centuries
Europeans came to the islands unprepared for the destructive storms, even as indigenous people understood their massive power
By Tristram Korten, Smithsonian.com, Sep 17, 2019 [H/t Dennis Ambler]
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/hist…

When Is Climate Change Just Weather? What Hurricane Dorian Coverage Mixes Up, On Purpose.
By Roger Pielke, Forbes, Sep 4, 2019
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerp…

Insurance Claims & Climate Claims
Do you ask your barber if you need a haircut?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 18, 2019
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/…
Video

Why have our low temperatures been so HIGH this summer? [US Pacific northwest.]
By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Sep 16, 2019
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/sear…
“I think I know the answer— warmer than normal sea surface temperatures over the eastern Pacific. Also known as the BLOB–or in this case BLOB junior.”
“What caused the BLOB? A combination of persistent high pressure that reduced vertical mixing in the ocean and southerly winds. Essentially, a highly anomalous atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific. That also can be inferred by the SST anomaly map shown in the third figure, since the north Pacific seems to be a big outlier.
“Global warming could be making a small contribution. A map of the surface temperature change from 1930 to now (from the NASA GISS site) indicates a warming of .2-.5C (.35-.9F) over the period. Some, but not all, of that temperature increase might well be associated with global warming.”

Aaaack, more winter rain
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 18, 2019
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/…
Link to news release: Oldest lake in Europe reveals more than one million years of climate history
By Staff, University of Cologne, Eurek Alert, Sep 3, 2019
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_rele…

Fires in August in 1951 in Queensland were described as “catastrophic” when CO2 was 311ppm
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 14, 2019
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/09/fi…

Changing Seas

Tarawa! And the War Against Sea Level Rise
By David Middleton, WUWT, Sep 20, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09…

5 things to know about the heat ‘blobs’ threatening oceans
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Sep 15, 2019
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-e…
[SEPP Comment: The weather has never changed before!]

Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

Cold winters and melting Arctic ice
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 18, 2019
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/…
Link to paper: Minimal influence of reduced Arctic sea ice on coincident cold winters in mid-latitudes
By Russell Blackport, et al. Nature Climate Change, Aug 12, 2019
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41…

2 New Papers: Scientists Report A Rapid Deceleration Of Greenland Ice Sheet Melt Since 2013
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Sep 16, 2019
https://notrickszone.com/2019/09/16…
[SEPP Comment: Not a sign of a new ice age.]

Changing Earth

This sulfur-spewing Russian volcano is turning sunsets purple
By Alex Fox, Science, Sep 13, 2019 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/201…
“Raikoke was powerful, but it didn’t deliver enough aerosols to significantly alter Earth’s climate, researchers say.”

Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine

Are Insects The New Red Meat?
By Chuck Dinerstein, ACSH, Sep 13, 2019
https://www.acsh.org/news/2019/09/1…

Lowering Standards

The BBC, the LibDems and a climate of hysteria
By Kathy Gyngell, The Conservative Woman, Sep 17, 2019
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk…

Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?

Faster than expected except where slower
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 18, 2019
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/…
“The conclusion? In the underlying article the authors don’t say it’s ‘worse than we thought’, more like ‘we didn’t know what to expect and we saw lots of interesting patterns.’”

Faster pace of climate change is ‘scary’, former chief scientist says
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 18, 2019
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wor…
“The simple reality is that the world’s climate is not becoming more extreme, nor is it changing faster than expected. And it certainly is not ‘scary’.”

Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.

Why 100% Renewable Energy Is Less Realistic Than a Unicorn
By David Middleton, WUWT, Sep 18, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09…
Link to paper: Storage Requirements and Costs of Shaping Renewable Energy Toward Grid Decarbonization
By Micah S.Ziegle, et al. Joule, Accessed Sep 19, 2019
https://www.sciencedirect.com/scien…
[SEPP Comment: If reliability constraints are eliminated, there is no problem.]

South Kesteven District Council to spend £50,000 as it declares ‘a climate emergency’
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 16, 2019
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wor…

Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?

New Survey: Half of Britons (and Most Europeans) Are Climate Sceptics
Press Release, GWPF, Sep 16, 2019
https://www.thegwpf.com/new-survey-…
“As Dr Peiser explains: ‘According to the Office of National Statistics (ONS) Britons are actually becoming happier and wealthier. When they are being told that there is a climate emergency, that they must tighten their belts and that nobody seriously disagrees, people naturally assume that they are being conned.’”

Most people in the West are still skeptics of climate change and the IPCC position
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 17, 2019
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/09/mo…

Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.

Greens “science” means calling you names and telling you to shut up
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 16, 2019
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/09/gr…

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda

The climate crusade marches across America!
By Larry Kummer, Fabius Maximus website, Sep 17, 2019 [H/t Mark Liebe]
https://fabiusmaximus.com/2019/09/1…
Summary: The climate campaign has begun a new phase, with an acceleration in the pace of activists’ propaganda. Will this succeed?

250 news organizations sign on to promote ‘climate crisis’
By Jennifer Harper, The Washington Times, Sep 16, 2019
https://www.washingtontimes.com/new…

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children

Climate Hysteria: Rising Number of Children Treated For ‘Eco-Anxiety’
By Staff, Daily Telegraph, Via GWPF, Sep 16, 2019
https://www.thegwpf.com/crazy-adult…

Majority of teens fear climate change
National survey takes temperature of next generation of voters
By WND Staff, World Net Daily, Sep 16, 2019 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.wnd.com/2019/09/majorit…
[SEPP Comment: Tony Heller pulling back the propaganda.]

Scaring children witless
Eco-alarmists are feeding kids a daily diet of fear and doom.
By Frank Furedi, Spiked, Sep 19, 2019 [H/t Sep 19, 2019]
https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/…

My solution to our children’s climate terror – a nice thick steak
By Caroline Ffiske, The Conservative Woman, Sep 18, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk…

Psychologists Warn Parents, Climate Change Alarmists Against Causing ‘Eco-Anxiety’ in Children
By Benjamin Fearnow, Newsweek, Sep 17, 2019
https://www.newsweek.com/eco-anxiet…

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda

Another children’s crusade
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 18, 2019
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/…

Delingpole: Fact Checking Alarmist Kids’ False Claims at Climate Hearing
By James Delingpole, Breitbart, Sep 18, 2019
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/…

Greta Thunberg and her Legion of Hacks
By Peter O’Brien, Quadrant, Sep 18,2019
https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doo…

“Climate deniers are immediate threat to our children” — Ranting, Tim Flannery admits his “colossal failure”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 18, 2019
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/09/pr…

Guardian Suggests UN is Boosting Greta Thunberg to Undermine President Trump’s Climate Policy
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 17, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09…

‘Young People Are Correct to Be Outraged’: Seattle City Council Urges Public Schools to Let Students Join Global Climate Strike
“Seattle Public Schools should stand with the global climate justice movement and excuse students so they can participate in the global climate strike.”
By Jake Johnson, Common Dreams, Sep 17, 2019 [H/t Ken Schlichte]
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2…

Expanding the Orthodoxy

Climate Confessions
By Staff, NBC News, Accessed Sep 19, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/specia…

Facing up to climate change
Much being done to battle it, Bacow says, yet there’s far more to do
By Lawrence Bacow, The Harvard Gazette, Sep 13, 2019
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/st…

It is more patriarchy
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 18, 2019
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/…

Natixis Report: Climate Change Could Derail Your Retirement
By Staff, Newsmax. Finance, Sep 19, 2019
https://www.newsmax.com/finance/str…

These Are the U.S. States That Will be Most Affected by Climate Change
By Kasmira Gander, Newsweek, under Tech & Science, Sep 16, 2019 [H/t Ken Schlichte]
https://www.newsweek.com/these-us-s…

Questioning European Green

Global warming: the UK’s expensive and futile gesture politics – Part 3
By Ruth Lea, The Conservative Woman, Sep 16, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk…

Volkswagen CEO: Climate change hysteria killing Germany’s auto industry
By Staff, World Tribune, Sep 11, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
https://www.worldtribune.com/volksw…

Global decarbonisation efforts ‘stall’, pushing climate goals out of reach
By Matt Mace. Euractiv, Sep 19, 2019
https://www.euractiv.com/section/cl…

Questioning Green Elsewhere

You spend a trillion here, a trillion there…
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 18, 2019
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/…

Fossil Fuel Divestmant Has ‘Zero’ Climate Impact, Says Bill Gates
By Staff, Financial Times, Via GWPF, Sep 17, 2019
https://www.thegwpf.com/fossil-fuel…

“Green” Energy Has Increased Emissions Of The Most Powerful Greenhouse Gas
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 14, 2019
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wor…
“The reality is that ‘clean’ energy simply does not exist. To pretend that we can eliminate emissions of greenhouse gases and still maintain our lifestyles is a con trick.”

The Political Games Continue

Democrat Climate Policies Are Ambitious But Fail The Reality Test
By Roger Pielke, Forbes, Sep 9, 2019
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerp…

Trump, House GOP Agree on Key to 2020 Win: Green New Deal
By Staff, E & E News, Via GWPF, Sep 16, 2019
https://www.thegwpf.com/trump-house…

Senate Democrats accuse administration of burying climate change reports
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Sep 20, 2019
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-e…
Link to 634 page report: Peer-Reviewed Research on Climate Change by USDA Authors, January 2017-August 2019 By Staff, Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, & Forestry, Sen Debbie Stabenow, Ranking Member, Accessed Sep 10, 2019
https://www.agriculture.senate.gov/…

Litigation Issues

Progressive States Petition Court to Declare Trump Pre-emption Rule Unlawful
By Marlo Lewis, Jr. CEI, Sep 20, 2019
https://cei.org/blog/progressive-st…

US seeks dismissal of tribes’ lawsuit over Keystone pipeline
By matthew Brown, AP, Sep 10, 2019
https://www.apnews.com/8c59f6dc01db…

Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes

Germany expects tough EU talks on energy taxes to counter climate change
By Staff, Euractiv, Sep 20, 2019
https://www.euractiv.com/section/em…

German carbon pricing plan may cost DAX companies billions: report
By Vera Eckert, Reuters, Sep 18, 2019
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-g…

Energy Issues – Non-US

Drone Strike on Saudi Arabia Knocks out 5% of Global Oil Supplies
By Euan Mearns, Energy Matters, Sep 17, 2019
http://euanmearns.com/drone-strike-…

Don’t Panic Over the Saudi Attack and the Oil Supply
OPEC would have had to cut output anyway, given the dramatic increase in American production.
By Donald L. Luskin and Michael Warren, WSJ, Via GWPF, Sep 17, 2019
https://www.thegwpf.com/dont-panic-…

Why today’s renewables cannot power modern civilization
By Dr. Lars Schernikau, WUWT, Sep 17, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09…

Will ‘Video-Shaming’ Follow Our Summer of ‘Flight-Shaming’?
By Mark Mills, National Review, Sep 20, 2019
https://www.nationalreview.com/2019…
[SEPP Comment: Developing a new concept for energy use: personal jet-air-mile.]

Smart meter rollout delayed for four years (And Cost Rises Again!)
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 17, 2019
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wor…

Vistra Will Close Another Illinois Coal Plant
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, Sep 16, 2019
https://www.powermag.com/vistra-wil…

Energy Issues — US

Renewable Energy to Overtake Natural Gas in the U.S. by 2035, Say New Studies
The reports reveal that 2019 represents a tipping point for renewables.
By Loukia Papadopoulos, Interesting Engineering, Sep 15, 2019
https://interestingengineering.com/…
Links to reports:
The Growing Market for Clean Energy Portfolios
By Charles Teplin, Mark Dyson, Alex Engel, and Grant Glazer, Rocky Mountain Institute, 2019 and
Prospects for Gas Pipelines in the Era of Clean Energy
By Mark Dyson, Grant Glazer, and Charles Teplin, Rocky Mountain Institute, 2019
https://rmi.org/insight/clean-energ…
[SEPP Comment: Note the similar authors who assume there is no reason for utilities to supply electricity 24-7-365!]

Duke Energy, American Electric Power Separately Seeking to Go Net-Zero Carbon by 2050
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Sep 19, 2019
https://www.powermag.com/duke-energ…

Washington’s Control of Energy

Keystone XL pipeline will give US access to nearly a million barrels of oil a day: Alberta Premier
By Julia Limitone, FOX Business, Sep 16, 2019
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets…

Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?

New Oil & Gas Drilling: A Schematic (‘Time for Tiramisu’)
By Jim Scherrer, Master Resource, Sep 17, 2019
https://www.masterresource.org/reso…

Nuclear Energy and Fears

IAEA report says global power demand requires large increase in nuclear
By Staff, WNN, Sep 11, 2019
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/A…
Link to report: Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050, 2019 Edition
By Staff, International Atomic Energy Agency, 2019
https://www.iaea.org/publications/1…

Report outlines attributes of nuclear power
By Staff, WNN, Sep 10, 2019
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/A…
Link to white paper: The Silent Giant: The need for nuclear in a clean energy system
By Staff, World Nuclear Association, 2019
https://www.world-nuclear.org/getat…

Russia’s world-first floating nuclear plant arrives in port
By Staff, Radio Free Europe, Sep 14, 2019
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-s-fl…
[SEPP Comment: Given the press attention, perhaps the USS Nautilus was not considered a nuclear submarine?]

Aussie Greens: Nuclear Power is a “Dangerous Distraction” from Real Climate Action
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 16, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09…

Big Plans For Small Nuclear Plants
By Bruce Gellerman, WBUR, Boston, Sep 18, 2019
https://www.wbur.org/earthwhile/201…

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind

Cuomo’s pricey wind-power gift to unions
By Post Editorial Board, New York Post, Sep 2, 2019
https://nypost.com/2019/09/02/cuomo…

Energy & Environmental Newsletter: September 16, 2019
By John Droz, Jr. Master Resource, Sep 16, 2019
https://www.masterresource.org/alli…

Sweden, Greta’s Home, Is Rapidly Increasing CO2 Emissions With Worse-Than-Coal Biomass Burning
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Sep 19, 2019
https://notrickszone.com/2019/09/19…
Link to one paper: The introduction and expansion of biomass use in Swedish district heating systems
By Karin Ericsson and Sven Werner, Biomass and Bioenergy, November 2016
https://www.sciencedirect.com/scien…

Wind Energy and the Extinction of Eagles
By Aynsley Kellow, Quadrant, Sep 16, 2019
https://quadrant.org.au/magazine/20…
[SEPP Comment: Does the “Extinction Rebellion” extend to extinction of soaring birds and bats?]

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other

Ocean power: A green option failing to make waves
By Sandra Ferrer, Brest, France (AFP) Sept 18, 2019
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/O…

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage

The POWER Interview: Cryogenic Energy Storage Technology
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag. Sep 18, 2019
https://www.powermag.com/the-power-…

Bolivia, with huge untapped reserves, gears up for soaring lithium demand
By Ana Frenandez, Salar De Uyuni, Bolivia (AFP) Sept 15, 2019
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/B…

Santee Cooper turns from coal to solar and storage
The scandal-plagued South Carolina public utility has announced plans to procure 1 GW of solar by 2024 and install 200 MW of energy storage by 2028, along with the closure of a coal-fired power plant.
By Christian Roselund, PV Magazine, Sep 11, 2019
https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2019/09…
[SEPP Comment: The storage part may be a challenge.]

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles

Electric vehicles won’t save us from climate change
By Robert Bryce, The Hill, Sep 11, 2019 [H/t Cooler Heads]
https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-…

California Dreaming

California, The Cradle Of Climate Jingoism
I&I Editorial, Sep 19, 2019
https://issuesinsights.com/2019/09/…

Trump Touts Decision To End California’s Ability To Set Its Own Emission Rules
By Chris White, Daily Caller, Sep 18, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
https://www.dailycaller.com/2019/09…

California’s Worst Heatwave
By Tony Heller, Real Climate Science, Sep 19, 2019
https://realclimatescience.com/2019…

Health, Energy, and Climate

Climate Change Infects Healthcare
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Sep 20, 2019
https://ddears.com/2019/09/20/clima…

Oh Mann!

German Climatologist Werner Kirstein Unloads: “IPCC Is To Deceive People”…Calls Michael Mann’s Chart “A Fake”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 17, 2019
https://notrickszone.com/2019/09/17…

Michael E Mann, Loser
By Mark Steyn, His Blog, Sep 17, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
https://www.steynonline.com/9742/mi…

Other Scientific News

First Water Detected on Planet in the Habitable Zone
by Staff Writers
Garching, Germany (SPX) Sep 12, 2019
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/F…
Link to paper: Water vapour in the atmosphere of the habitable- zone eight-Earth-mass planet K2-18 b
By Angelos Tsiaras, et al. Nature, Astronomy, Sep 11, 2019
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41…

Extinction of Icelandic walrus coincides with Norse settlement
Scientists used ancient DNA to show the past existence of the walrus
By Staff, NSF, Sep 17, 2019
https://www.nsf.gov/discoveries/dis…

Other News that May Be of Interest

North American bird population fell by quarter over 50 years: study
By Staff Writers, Washington (AFP), Sept 19, 2019
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/N…

BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:

“Climate change: Rugby World Cup highlights injustice”–Silly Matt McGrath [BBC]
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 20, 2019
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wor…

Disaster At Union Seminary As Giant, Angry Carnivorous Plant Does Not Accept Students’ Apologies
By Staff, BablyonBee.com, Sep 19, 2019
https://babylonbee.com/news/disaste…

ARTICLES

1. California Can’t Go Its Own Way
Trump’s fuel policy intervention is right on policy and the law.
Editorial, WSJ, Sep 18, 2019
https://www.wsj.com/articles/califo…

TWTW SUMMARY: The editorial states:
“If you haven’t heard, President Trump has declared war on California, the auto industry and the world’s climate. Or that’s what liberals are saying about his Administration’s plans to revoke California’s waiver that lets it set national fuel economy rules that raise costs for consumers across the country.

“Mr. Trump trolled California progressives during a visit to the Golden State on Wednesday by tweeting that his Administration would yank California’s Clean Air Act waiver. The Environmental Protection Agency last year foreshadowed its plans to do so when it proposed relaxing the Obama -era corporate average fuel economy (Cafe) standards.

“The 1970 Clean Air Act prohibits states from regulating tailpipe emissions, but it allows California to request a waiver to ‘meet compelling and extraordinary conditions.’ This waiver authority was intended to help California reduce tailpipe pollutants such as NOx and sulphur that contribute to smog. The LA haze in those days could be as thick as San Francisco’s fog.

“Yet the Obama Administration in 2009 issued California a waiver to regulate greenhouse gas emissions despite the lack of legal or environmental justification. The Energy Policy and Conservation Act pre-empts state regulations of fuel economy, and CO2 emissions don’t cause smog. CO2 wasn’t even considered a pollutant until the Supreme Court’s Massachusetts v. EPA (2007) decision.

“The Trump Administration now has strong economic, regulatory and constitutional reasons to revoke the waiver. California has used its waiver to impose electric car quotas that will raise costs for consumers across the country. Manufacturing an electric car costs $12,000 more than an equivalent gas-powered vehicle. Despite generous federal and state consumer subsidies, auto makers will probably have to sell EVs below cost in California and raise prices on gas-powered cars everywhere else.

“The state’s EV mandate doesn’t even account for all CO2 emissions since it awards more credit for longer-range batteries, even though they require more energy (and fossil fuels) to manufacture. A Tesla Model S, for instance, receives almost twice as much regulatory credit as a Nissan Leaf. It also provides credit for hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles that derive energy mostly from natural gas. This scheme encourages regulatory arbitrage.

“Fair-weather liberal federalists are complaining that the Trump Administration is running over states’ rights. Yet the Commerce Clause prohibits states from burdening interstate commerce, and the California rules discriminate against consumers in other states. If California’s waiver is allowed to stand, its rules would become the de facto national standard.

“Auto makers want regulatory certainty and have urged the Trump Administration to compromise with California to avoid a prolonged legal brawl. But California progressives as usual want it their way or the highway. As Gov. Gavin Newsom declared, ‘California will prevail because we’re leaders in this space.’””

The article concludes with a brief discussion of litigation issues and electric cars.

2. Sorry Energy Consumers, Shale Won’t Save You
Booming U.S. oil production has altered the world energy landscape, but it can’t plug a hole of the size created by the weekend attack on Saudi Arabia
By Lauren Silva Laughlin, WSJ, Sep 15, 2019
https://www.wsj.com/articles/sorry-…

TWTW SUMMARY: The journalist writes:

“America’s bountiful shale deposits have displaced worries about the far larger oil reserves and production of the Middle East. This weekend was a reminder of just how crucial the region remains.

“Saudi Arabia’s forced shutdown of over half of its crude production, some 5% of world supply, should be short but shocking. Energy traders had become complacent about geopolitical risk in part because massive shale plays, particularly the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico, have driven growth in world oil production.

“The region pumps some 4.4 million barrels of oil a day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Growth over the past 10 years has helped make the U.S. a significant exporter of petroleum products. Since the 2014 collapse in oil prices at the tail end of an earlier boom in shale output, which was later surpassed in volume, Saudi Arabia and other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, along with nonmember Russia, have struggled to support prices and to adapt to the shale era.

“Reinforcing the impression that traditional oil producing heavyweights were no longer as important is shale’s nimbleness. Part of what supported prices after the 2014 price collapse was a reversal in U.S. output by the middle of 2015. Unlike voluntary cutbacks from OPEC producers, this reflected hundreds of individual, commercially-driven decisions by drillers. Shale’s short drilling cycle meant that a pullback in investment soon translated into a drop in output.

“The flip side of that has seen a surge in output to record levels since prices recovered, much to OPEC’s frustration. This feeds the impression that shale can save the day. But Saturday’s attack should serve as a reminder that this isn’t the case.

“Shale simply can’t respond to an attack on the artery of the world oil market. It can’t even make much money these days. Drillers have been under pressure from shareholders to bolster returns and cut back investment. Permian-focused companies like Pioneer Natural Resources are doing just that. Investment has showed signs of slowing—active U.S. rigs hit a 17-month low in July. The most recent reading from Baker Hughes shows the number of drilling rigs down 16% from last year.”

Other journalists have written that the Saudi crude production will resume by the end of September. This is not a long-term disruption but demonstrates that increased security is needed. See links under Energy Issues – Non-US.